Morton out for NLDS

Enscheff said:
In his last start, Waldrep was 94-97 with 2166-2298 rpm on the FA. The average FA spin for the Braves at the MLB level is 2293 for reference.

I don't see a single pitch from him on that day with 2300+ rpm. The average spin for the Braves at the MLB level on all breaking balls is 2526.

Based on this limited data, I'm not sure Waldrep's stuff is all that exciting. Unless the SL data is bad, it doesn't appear he can spin the ball.
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I mean this seriously because I always await this analysis on pitchers, but I'm curious: does this data ever yield bad results? Can a pitcher have spin rates that are counteracted by above average movement (somehow)? Can a pitcher have spin rates that create some unusual tilt that yields different results? Or is it literally just as simple as more spin = more success, less spin = bad pitcher.
 
Enscheff said:
In his last start, Waldrep was 94-97 with 2166-2298 rpm on the FA. The average FA spin for the Braves at the MLB level is 2293 for reference.

I don't see a single pitch from him on that day with 2300+ rpm. The average spin for the Braves at the MLB level on all breaking balls is 2526.

Based on this limited data, I'm not sure Waldrep's stuff is all that exciting. Unless the SL data is bad, it doesn't appear he can spin the ball.
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Obviously the fastball/split combination will be his butter and bread, and Braves seem to have had more success improving breaking pitches than other aspects of pitchers’ arsenals. Probably smart to withhold judgment until next season. In the meantime, the fact that he’s already in AAA pitching passably well is pretty awesome, given this is his draft year.

Braves really need three or four of these SP prospects to pan out over the next couple years to remain in the elite-team echelon. Smith-Shawver and Waldrep joining the rotation successfully in 2024 and 2025 would be huge.
 
McCann'sCans said:
I mean this seriously because I always await this analysis on pitchers, but I'm curious: does this data ever yield bad results? Can a pitcher have spin rates that are counteracted by above average movement (somehow)? Can a pitcher have spin rates that create some unusual tilt that yields different results? Or is it literally just as simple as more spin = more success, less spin = bad pitcher.
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My understanding is that you can over-perform or underperform your spin though efficiency but more spin usually is better.

I don't think it's fair to say less spin = bad pitcher as it's definitely possible to increase spin with coaching and experience so it may be more of an indicator of a pitchers current level of development.
 
Slippyjms said:
My understanding is that you can over-perform or underperform your spin though efficiency but more spin usually is better.

I don't think it's fair to say less spin = bad pitcher as it's definitely possible to increase spin with coaching and experience so it may be more of an indicator of a pitchers current level of development.
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It just seemed a little overly definitive to say that Waldrep's stuff isn't exciting or he can't spin the ball based on spin rates from 4 AAA innings. But its entirely possible that one inning of AAA spin rates is all you need to accurately project a pitcher's career- I have no idea.
 
At the end of the season I can see those numbers being down.

We have all seen the movement. There is something there.
 
I can see Waldrep starting next season in high A to continue his development. Then promoted to Mississippi after a few starts, then Gwinnett around the All Star break. That way he gets half a season or so in Gwinnett to possibly be a factor in the playoffs next season.

All will depend on what he does this offseason regarding refining his pitches and getting his body in even better shape.
 
Tapate50 said:
At the end of the season I can see those numbers being down.

We have all seen the movement. There is something there.
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It's almost like you shouldn't put much weight into 4 innings worth of spin rate stats at AAA after a long season that saw a certain pitcher go through an entire college baseball season, then deep into the CWS and then proceed to go through 4 separate levels in the minors all in span of about 8 months.

But I'm sure Enscheff is correct. Nothing to get excited about.
 
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bravesfanforlife88 said:
I can see Waldrep starting next season in high A to continue his development. Then promoted to Mississippi after a few starts, then Gwinnett around the All Star break. That way he gets half a season or so in Gwinnett to possibly be a factor in the playoffs next season.

All will depend on what he does this offseason regarding refining his pitches and getting his body in even better shape.
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He's already in AAA now and he quite clearly has an advanced feel for pitching. I don't see the why they would put him back in A+ to start the year. Anything is possible I suppose, but it seems unlikely to me.
 
Carp said:
He's already in AAA now and he quite clearly has an advanced feel for pitching. I don't see the why they would put him back in A+ to start the year. Anything is possible I suppose, but it seems unlikely to me.
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I don't see A+ being where he starts... but the only reason he is in AAA is because the AA was over. I could see him starting in AA... yes it looks like he has an advanced feel for pitching, but it also looks like he has some real control/command issues.
 
My main thought of him starting in high A would be just to get him going on what he worked on over the offseason. It would only be for a few starts, then go to Mississippi. Kid does have potential for sure
 
I strongly suspect that he has been given some sort of program designed to help him learn to command his Fastball. From what we have seen, that would seem to be the big hole in his game right now, Enscheff’s concern about spin rates notwithstanding.
 
McCann'sCans said:
I mean this seriously because I always await this analysis on pitchers, but I'm curious: does this data ever yield bad results? Can a pitcher have spin rates that are counteracted by above average movement (somehow)? Can a pitcher have spin rates that create some unusual tilt that yields different results? Or is it literally just as simple as more spin = more success, less spin = bad pitcher.
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The answer is…maybe…sometimes. But usually more spin is always better, unless it’s a sinker or a knuckleball.

Having said that, I always withhold judgement until I see movement data in the format I know how to analyze. That format is movement data listed on FG that is pulled from baseball savant. So until I have that exact data I don’t try to draw any conclusions.
 
jpx7 said:
Obviously the fastball/split combination will be his butter and bread, and Braves seem to have had more success improving breaking pitches than other aspects of pitchers’ arsenals. Probably smart to withhold judgment until next season. In the meantime, the fact that he’s already in AAA pitching passably well is pretty awesome, given this is his draft year.

Braves really need three or four of these SP prospects to pan out over the next couple years to remain in the elite-team echelon. Smith-Shawver and Waldrep joining the rotation successfully in 2024 and 2025 would be huge.
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This is a good point, especially since nothing was classified as a splitter. Perhaps those low spin “cutters” were actually nasty splitters? No idea until I see the data I’m used to looking at.

Having said that, the FA is not good based on that data. It’s almost like he need to drop the FA and go with a sinker, but again, until “real” data is available I can’t say for sure.
 
Enscheff said:
This is a good point, especially since nothing was classified as a splitter. Perhaps those low spin “cutters” were actually nasty splitters? No idea until I see the data I’m used to looking at.

Having said that, the FA is not good based on that data. It’s almost like he need to drop the FA and go with a sinker, but again, until “real” data is available I can’t say for sure.
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Yeah they were…I saw this tweet the other day from Chris Clegg

Hurston Waldrep's splitters tonight classified as a variety of pitches.


https://x.com/rotoclegg/status/1705724127426892240?s=46&t=JbfKYSx4zLSAaV7AGoL3Ow
 
Enscheff definitely knows his pitch data. But I thought that was pretty much what was know with Waldrep, his fastball was MLB level, but the key was practically no one throws such a devastating splitter with such a slow spin rate. And if they did, the rest of their stuff was junk.
 
Unless he just magically finds it Sunday if they give him one more start, Elder should not seriously be considered as an option to pitch in the NLDS or even be on the roster. If they believe that Wright is not a winning option to at least start the game and go 3-4 innings, then they can't think Elder is a winning option. The off days will help us have a full bullpen game in Game 3, but we really need our top two starters to pitch like it and not be exiting in the fourth and fifth innings.
 
trob15 said:
Someone on the playoff roster is going to mysteriously come down with an injury so Morton can start game 3.
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I absolutely expect this to happen. I know the Braves won't count on him, but I feel like it's a given at this point if Morton is good to go.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I absolutely expect this to happen. I know the Braves won't count on him, but I feel like it's a given at this point if Morton is good to go.
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If they thought he would be available in the NLDS, why would they place him on the IL and have to manipulate the playoff roster with a phantom injury? It isn't like we needed the roster space the remaining 12 days of the regular season. For this reason, I really don't expect to see him back in the NLDS unless it's a serious injury to someone and we have no alternative.
 
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