Newcomb & Sims

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
They have been our best starters in AAA and given the struggles of the major league rotation and inevitable injuries to pitchers will likely be given a shot at some point this season. Both have made six starts in AAA this year. I wouldn't mind seeing them get a few more, but I also think they need to be assessed as major league starters at some point. A fair assessment to me is 20-30 starts in the majors and those two have come close to earning it.

With pitchers in the minors, I look mainly at walk and strikeout rates and age for level in assessing their likely contribution in the major leagues, with some weight given to reports on what kind of stuff they have. Those reports indicate that in terms of stuff and upside Newcomb has the edge. But Sims is a year younger and has made more progress in bringing down his walk rate (2.1 per nine innings so far this year versus 4.5 for Newcomb).

If I had to pick one to call up right now, it would probably be Newcomb. But it is a close call and could change depending on how their next few starts go.

I do think the odds are less than 50% for both that they will stick as major league starters. I would say the same for Folty. But if you look at the combined odds for all three, the chances are good one of them will stick. I would be very happy if two of those three stick as starters. One would be kind of like holding serve. But the main thing is to give both Newcomb and Sims an extended opportunity at some point to show they can make it as a major league starter.
 
Id exercise patience...whatever is working...let them groove it. It may be our pitching coach there or something to that effect. I see post ASB or September callups.
 
One or both will get a shot this year as long as they continue doing what they are doing. I agree that a post ASB callup is the most realistic. Let them continue to gain confidence until then. Let Colon and Co continue to rack up the losses so we can get some Beer next summer.
 
Both are at the point where they are controlled through their 20s, so I wouldn't be opposed to "seeing what they have" at any point this season. This is the perfect season to let those guys sink or swim at the MLB level. Both will likely be BP arms, so the Braves may as well make that final determination this year.
 
Tapate50 said:
Id exercise patience...whatever is working...let them groove it. It may be our pitching coach there or something to that effect. I see post ASB or September callups.
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This makes the most sense to me. Let them get some more reps and hopefully establish comfort.
 
Tapate50 said:
Id exercise patience...whatever is working...let them groove it. It may be our pitching coach there or something to that effect. I see post ASB or September callups.
Click to expand...

For selfish reasons, hoping you're right. Not getting to see 3/5 of the Gwinnett rotation until mid August here.
 
Wanted to update the numbers for Newcomb and Sims.

Through nine starts Newcomb's strikeout rate is 11.2 and walk rate is 5.2. The walk rate is up slightly from the 4.6 he posted in AA last year. But the strikeout rate is also up from 9.8. The BABIP against him this year is .304, about the same as last year. Sometimes I see comments that Newcomb's stuff produces weak contact, more weak contact that other pitchers. The BABIP numbers would not seem to support that. His home run per flyball rate is 7.9, a good number but up from he has typically put up in his minor league career.

Moving on to Sims. In nine starts he has generated a strikeout rate of 9.2 and walk rate of 2.5. The walk rate is less than half of what he has put up in the previous two seasons. That's a big improvement. The BABIP against him this year is .238, indicating that Lady Luck has been on his side this year. The home run per fly ball rate has stands at 12.5.

Neither of them is a ground ball pitcher, which is a bit of a concern given the way balls fly out of Suntrust. I continue to believe that both of these guys will end up in the bullpen at the major league level. But I also believe that they need to be given 20-30 starts at the major league level. If one of them can be a starter, it would be yuge. So we need to give them the opportunity.

But I would put both behind the pitching prospects I've described as our Big 4: Soroka, Allard, Gohara and Anderson. I continue to believe those four are the guys currently in the farm system who are most likely to make it as starters in the major leagues.

Btw neither Sims nor Newcomb is a ground ball pitcher. Neither is Allard. Just a tidbit to file away.
 
updates on Sims and Newcomb (plus Weigel)

Sims 9.4 K rate and 3.2 BB rate in 13 AAA starts. Walk rate has trended up and HRs have been a problem.

Newcomb 11.6 K rate and 5.2 BB rate in 11 AA starts. 7.3 and 4.4 in 2 major league starts. An interesting comp is Folty who is at 7.3 & 2.8.

Weigel is at 6.7 and 3.5 in 7 AAA starts.

All of these guys have had ups and downs and with collective memory being as short as it is around here, much is made of what they did in their last start or two. But I think the overall numbers for the year are closer to the truth.

None of the 3 is a ground ball pitcher. Sims appears to be an extreme fly ball pitcher.
 
Time for an update. Sims has been fantastic in his last five starts, which have brought his season numbers to 10.1 Ks and 2.7 BBs per nine innings. That covers 110 innings.

Newcomb's numbers in 58 AAA innings were 11.6 and 5.2. In 37 major league innings he is at 8.5 and 4.1. He started off very well in his first four starts but has struggled mightily in his last three. Some of that has to do with quality of opposition. He faced the Mets, Marlins, Padres and Giants in his first four starts and the Astros, gnats and Cubs in his last three. But some of it is the league getting a book on his current limitations as a pitcher. Today he goes up against the Dodgers. It is a big game for him

Baseball is a ruthless meritocracy, as it should be. We are being reminded of that with the Camargo/Swanson situation. I think Newcomb needs a strong game today. If he doesn't have one Sims should replace him in the rotation.
 
nsacpi said:
Time for an update. Sims has been fantastic in his last five starts, which have brought his season numbers to 10.1 Ks and 2.7 BBs per nine innings. That covers 110 innings.

Newcomb's numbers in 58 AAA innings were 11.6 and 5.2. In 37 major league innings he is at 8.5 and 4.1. He started off very well in his first four starts but has struggled mightily in his last three. Some of that has to do with quality of opposition. He faced the Mets, Marlins, Padres and Giants in his first four starts and the Astros, gnats and Cubs in his last three. But some of it is the league getting a book on his current limitations as a pitcher. Today he goes up against the Dodgers. It is a big game for him

Baseball is a ruthless meritocracy, as it should be. We are being reminded of that with the Camargo/Swanson situation. I think Newcomb needs a strong game today. If he doesn't have one Sims should replace him in the rotation.
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Sims will most likely replace Garcia. I see Newk making every start in Atlanta fr the rest of the season.
 
Newk still walking a **** ton of guys. 4.53 FIP and 4.63 ERA. He is going to have to harness his control to be anything more than a back end guy.
 
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