Newcomb

msstate7

msstate7

Well-known member
Season...

52.2 ip 49 h 27 er 32 bb 55 k

Era - 4.61

Whip - 1.54

BAA - .246

FIP - 4.53

Here's a breakdown of his stats vs the good teams (astros, cubs, dodgers x2, and Nats):

23.1 ip 29 h 22 er 21 bb 30 k

Here's vs bad teams (mets, marlins, giants, padres, and phillies):

29.1 ip 20 h 5 er 11 bb 25 k

I find this encouraging. Those good teams are really good and Newcomb is just getting his feet wet. He threw the changeup more last night and I expect that pitch to get better and better. I think Newcomb's control will get better and he's gonna be a nice pitcher for us. Really like that BAA and Ks.

Here's a comparison among our staff right now in exit velocity and FIP..

(Avg MLB exit velocity = 89.57)

Newcomb: exit - 88.28, FIP - 4.53

Folty: exit - 90.50, FIP - 4.66

Dickey: exit - 86.11, FIP - 4.92

Teheran: exit - 89.35, FIP - 5.10
 
Newk has always been difficult to square up. Not surprised at his BAA or his exit velocity numbers.

Its all going to be about if he can refine that control.
 
He needs to attack hitters more. Welcome more contact. He's trying to be too fine and strike a bunch of guys out. The Ks will come. He can pitch to contact more and do well. I think he'll be fine in time. His stuff is encouraging.
 
If he gets more reps and continues to feature a decent changeup, I think he'll be better.
 
sturg33 said:
If he can't get his walks down he will not make it.
Click to expand...

72Ade-q1.jpg
 
I keep thinking Newk is a mechanical fix away from being dominate. But I just wonder. Look at his splits. He is great vs Lefties.. unlucky.. but good walk/K %.. Vs. Righties, he is horrible. He falls behind and it is mostly due to his FB not getting into the zone. I am almost to the point to thinking this is mental.. this was him last year too. How can a pitching coach just not work with him on right handed batters.. maybe move him on the rubber..

Most encouraging thing with Newk is his low batting average against and high K rate. If he can get his command down, he will be TOR.. but I am beginning to think that is a bigger if than I was hoping.
 
In 11 AAA starts and 10 major league starts we see the following:

Walk rate of 5.2 per nine innings in AAA and 5.5 in the majors

Strikeout rate of 11.6 in AAA and 9.4 in the majors

HR/fly ball rate of 6.7% in AAA and 11.5% in the majors

His major league numbers are pretty much in line with his AAA numbers once you make the standard adjustment.

BABIP of .304 in AAA and .303 in the majors. Luck has not been a factor in his performance at either level.

Strand rate of 75% in AAA and 74% in the majors. Sequencing luck or "clutchness" has not been a factor either.

He has about a 40% chance imo of developing into an effective major league starter. Folty is often held up as an example of what he could be. Folty has made good progress this year, but he isn't "there" yet. He is on track for less than 2 WAR this year. I think we need a rotation of 2 WAR pitchers with one or two at 3 WAR or better.
 
nsacpi said:
In 11 AAA starts and 10 major league starts we see the following:

Walk rate of 5.2 per nine innings in AAA and 5.5 in the majors

Strikeout rate of 11.6 in AAA and 9.4 in the majors

HR/fly ball rate of 6.7% in AAA and 11.5% in the majors

His major league numbers are pretty much in line with his AAA numbers once you make the standard adjustment.

BABIP of .304 in AAA and .303 in the majors. Luck has not been a factor in his performance at either level.

Strand rate of 75% in AAA and 74% in the majors. Sequencing luck or "clutchness" has not been a factor either.

He has about a 40% chance imo of developing into an effective major league starter. Folty is often held up as an example of what he could be. Folty has made good progress this year, but he isn't "there" yet. He is on track for less than 2 WAR this year. I think we need a rotation of 2 WAR pitchers with one or two at 3 WAR or better.
Click to expand...

Yeah - the underlying numbers of Folty show a much less rosy picture
 
sturg33 said:
Yeah - the underlying numbers of Folty show a much less rosy picture
Click to expand...

With Folty it is the periods where he seems to have it that give one hope and it seems like there are more of those periods then there were before.

He's struggled since he had that 7 or 8 start run where he looked like he was about to break out. The break out could still be there. I think he has demonstrated more than anyone the ability to get there, but its going to be on him to do it.
 
Newk's issues definitely seem mental to me. Same with Folty. That issue the announcers mentioned where Newk nearly always goes 2-0 if he goes 1-0 is very prominent. Hopefully we have some of the best pitching coaches around to fix as many as possible of our semi defective prospects. I had the impression Sims had similar issues due to his minor league walk issues, but after watching him he seemed the exact opposite, maybe not good enough stuff, but he seemed very mentally tough.
 
Newcomb's misses are almost always to the arm side, which tells me he has the tendency of cutting himself off which is a very common problem with young pitchers and pitchers who generally speaking don't have many innings under their belt. I would imagine this is why Flowers called more changeups last night, trying to get him to carry his upper body more and get more "on top" of his pitches. If this is the case, he should be able to fix his problem with more innings and learning to make his adjustments.
 
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