NLDS Game 1 vs LAD prep

NYCBrave said:
Good job, you just proved my exact point and proved Enscheff wrong. Let's see if he admits he was wrong....
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I didnt prove he was wrong...I think it is worth investigating where there is an effect from facing a pitcher a third time that is independent of pitch count...there might be one
 
nsacpi said:
I didnt prove he was wrong...I think it is worth investigating where there is an effect from facing a pitcher a third time that is independent of pitch count...there might be one
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OH COME ON!!!! You gave them the win. You just handed it to them. You let them pet it and play with it. You saw the smiles on their faces. And then you just go and put a bullet in the win's head and say "No Sir! No win for you"... Now they have to live with the fact that Enscheff was right again. When is enough gonna be enough huh?
 
This is why we can't have rational discussions on this board. Folks don't even know when something was proven right or wrong.

Going back and forth with nsacpi got the conversation to "with the data available we can't tell if the cause is facing the batter a 3rd time, or pitch count fatigue, or both".

Because of that discussion, I changed my stance to, "Folty should not face Pederson a 3rd time if he is over 70-75 pitches". I think that is a perfectly logical conclusion to draw based on the data presented throughout this thread.

There's a reason why I have perfectly civil discussions with folks like nsacpi, and not so much with folks like NYC.
 
nsacpi said:
not to engage in body shaming but a big gut can be yuge in the post season
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It should be noted that I'm not saying what I think should happen, I'm saying what I think is going to happen.

The funny thing in this though is watching the WS, Dave Roberts made most of the correct analytical moves (the ones you'd make based on the numbers) and AJ Hinch mostly trusted his gut, and the team that made the moves based on the numbers, most of those moves failed. LA and Houston are both analytical teams, but Hinch is more of a trust his gut then trust the numbers guy in some cases.

I think most of what Snitker was wowed about analytical wise was most likely AA and his team showing him that there is technology today that can show you where a player is most likely to hit the ball.

I believe Snitker will play matchups, I just think the 3rd time through the order penalty is too far for him.
 
Snit will manage a little differently with Folty on the mound than he will with the other starters. He'll take 5 innings from the others and try to get 6 out of Folty.

If he can get 6 out of Folty I think it will be Venters, Viz and Minter for 7-9, assuming it's a close game.
 
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I agree. We need 6 from Folty and I wouldnt hesitate to go 7 if he is cruising and we have a solid lead. We dont have the pen to play this 5 inning thing to the extreme. We could bring in Venters for Pederson and he walks him. Now the plans gone to ****. I dont trust the pen. Feels like they are primed to **** the bed.
 
I wonder how much more work the clubs have done on something like third time through than we have available?

Can we use pitch info, for example, to nail down a more accurate prediction of which side of the average case the results on a given night are going to be?
 
nsacpi said:
I didnt prove he was wrong...I think it is worth investigating where there is an effect from facing a pitcher a third time that is independent of pitch count...there might be one
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But you absolutely did. Your evidence proves Folty faced the lineup a third time in the majority of his starts. There is no evidence that shows he didn't face a lineup a third time every single time he pitched bad.
 
Enscheff said:
This is why we can't have rational discussions on this board. Folks don't even know when something was proven right or wrong.

Going back and forth with nsacpi got the conversation to "with the data available we can't tell if the cause is facing the batter a 3rd time, or pitch count fatigue, or both".

Because of that discussion, I changed my stance to, "Folty should not face Pederson a 3rd time if he is over 70-75 pitches". I think that is a perfectly logical conclusion to draw based on the data presented throughout this thread.

There's a reason why I have perfectly civil discussions with folks like nsacpi, and not so much with folks like NYC.
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You have a civil discussion on this board about 1% of the time lol. Nice try though.
 
Here's some research for you guys. Pederson has 53 AB all season vs lefties. He has a 169 batting average and 510 OPS against them. So if Folty is pulled before facing him a third time, in favor of a lefty reliever, extremely likely chance Pederson will be pinch hit for.
 
NYCBrave said:
Here's some research for you guys. Pederson has 53 AB all season vs lefties. He has a 169 batting average and 510 OPS against them. So if Folty is pulled before facing him a third time, in favor of a lefty reliever, extremely likely chance Pederson will be pinch hit for.
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yup...Pederson will not face a lefty in a high leverage situation...Muncy might be left in and Bellinger very likely would be left in
 
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