Objectively ranking the top farm systems

[Enscheff]

But, in the interview I thought Coppy plainly put forward the thought that he did not fully have the support of ownership or the fans in carrying out a complete teardown rebuild.

He also spent a little time throwing shade at the Cubs, basically saying that their front office had more room to lose. I'm not sure I totally buy that, though I do agree that their front office had more financial resources to acquire talent.

If this is true and Coppy didn't have full buy in from ownership on a complete rebuild, then I have to give him a little more credit for the job he has done. Walking the rebuild/compete tightrope is nearly impossible. So if he was forced to do things like sign Markakis, get Aybar included in the Simmons trade, throw good money after bad in the Kemp trade, call up Swanson to a losing team and needlessly start his service clock, and water down the return for Kimbrel by chaining BJ to him, then those were restrictions beyond his control.

However, he didn't commit to a full rebuild and still didn't win any games. So hamstringing the rebuild did absolutely no good. Regardless of whose fault that decision was, it should prove beyond all doubt that the only way to properly rebuild is to go all in on the effort.

 

[Southcack77]

If this is true and Coppy didn't have full buy in from ownership on a complete rebuild, then I have to give him a little more credit for the job he has done. Walking the rebuild/compete tightrope is nearly impossible. So if he was forced to do things like sign Markakis, get Aybar included in the Simmons trade, throw good money after bad in the Kemp trade, call up Swanson to a losing team and needlessly start his service clock, and water down the return for Kimbrel by chaining BJ to him, then those were restrictions beyond his control.

However, he didn't commit to a full rebuild and still didn't win any games. So hamstringing the rebuild did absolutely no good. Regardless of whose fault that decision was, it should prove beyond all doubt that the only way to properly rebuild is to go all in on the effort.

I'm a little skeptical that he was forced into all of those moves, though perhaps it was strongly recommended. I'll buy that it prevented them from realistically moving Freeman and Teheran.

I don't think Markakis has really affected much of anything. He's fairly paid and he isn't blocking anyone and he's probably someone that could be moved if they wanted, possibly for a decent prospect, possibly not. I doubt Aybar affected the prospect haul, the Angels were probably glad to be rid of his salary having no other use for him. In a less sad world the Braves would have gotten a more substantial piece for him at the deadline, but he was unpredictably awful.

I tend to agree with you on Kemp, but that does seems like a move that was made by a front office feeling pressure to do something in the short term. Still, assuming that extra salary does seem to be bad money after good, but there remains the possibility that he plays well enough to be flipped -- course the last two teams have paid to get him away, so not real likely.

I'd have left Swanson down and I would have tanked the end of both of the last seasons. I think the silly good finishes did impact the Braves draft significantly.

I'm ambivalent about the Kimbrell/Upton trade. It's very difficult to assess the financial imperatives and what being freed from the remainder of his contract actually allowed them to do. They essentially traded Kimbrell for a top 50 prospect, an upgrade in the OF, the #41 pick, and the front office would like for you accept Touki, and a fair amount of long term salary relief (though not really salary relief in the realistic contention window (unless they actually believed in 2017)).

But all things considered, it is very possible that the Braves have already conducted a successful rebuild. Not in the sense that they will contend in 2017, but it quite possible they will be respectable enough this season and every season going forward until the system bears its fruit. I think the hitting is harder to see at the moment, but its very possible that it will come along just fine. Time will tell.

At the moment, I would just say that they have a good start on building a contending club. They should have enough young assets to hit that they should be able to complement them with free agency and trades to put them into the playoffs. Or it could all flame out, but that seems unlikely given the volume of prospects.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I think the argument on Markickass is that we paid him roughly what we owed BJ and if we would not have signed him and just kept BJ, then we could have maximized the return for Kimbrel. I don't think it has anything to do with paying him fairly or blocking anyone.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm a little skeptical that he was forced into all of those moves, though perhaps it was strongly recommended. I'll buy that it prevented them from realistically moving Freeman and Teheran.

I don't think Markakis has really affected much of anything. He's fairly paid and he isn't blocking anyone and he's probably someone that could be moved if they wanted, possibly for a decent prospect, possibly not. I doubt Aybar affected the prospect haul, the Angels were probably glad to be rid of his salary having no other use for him. In a less sad world the Braves would have gotten a more substantial piece for him at the deadline, but he was unpredictably awful.

I tend to agree with you on Kemp, but that does seems like a move that was made by a front office feeling pressure to do something in the short term. Still, assuming that extra salary does seem to be bad money after good, but there remains the possibility that he plays well enough to be flipped -- course the last two teams have paid to get him away, so not real likely.

I'd have left Swanson down and I would have tanked the end of both of the last seasons. I think the silly good finishes did impact the Braves draft significantly.

I'm ambivalent about the Kimbrell/Upton trade. It's very difficult to assess the financial imperatives and what being freed from the remainder of his contract actually allowed them to do. They essentially traded Kimbrell for a top 50 prospect, an upgrade in the OF, the #41 pick, and the front office would like for you accept Touki, and a fair amount of long term salary relief (though not really salary relief in the realistic contention window (unless they actually believed in 2017)).

But all things considered, it is very possible that the Braves have already conducted a successful rebuild. Not in the sense that they will contend in 2017, but it quite possible they will be respectable enough this season and every season going forward until the system bears its fruit. I think the hitting is harder to see at the moment, but its very possible that it will come along just fine. Time will tell.

At the moment, I would just say that they have a good start on building a contending club. They should have enough young assets to hit that they should be able to complement them with free agency and trades to put them into the playoffs. Or it could all flame out, but that seems unlikely given the volume of prospects.

This. It cost the Braves an impact 3B prospect in Senzel last draft, and will probably cost them a shot at an impact position talent like Adell in the upcoming draft.

 

[Enscheff]

I think the argument on Markickass is that we paid him roughly what we owed BJ and if we would not have signed him and just kept BJ, then we could have maximized the return for Kimbrel. I don't think it has anything to do with paying him fairly or blocking anyone.

Agreed. I would have much preferred Upton instead of Markakis on the current team coupled with a much stronger return for Kimbrel. Having a player like Margot in the system would be phenomenal.

Additionally, the Braves currently need a RHed hitting 4th OFer to round out the bench. Guess what BJ is right now? Yup, he's a RHed hitting 4th OFer that just put up an .874 and .794 OPS vs LHers over the last 2 seasons. He could have been a daily defensive replacement for Kemp, and given Inciarte the occasional day off vs a tough LHer.

BJ would have been the perfect 4th OFer for the 2017 Braves. A BJ/LHer platoon in RF would be pretty good this coming season considering LHed hitting OFers were a surplus this offseason.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Agreed. I would have much preferred Upton instead of Markakis on the current team coupled with a much stronger return for Kimbrel. Having a player like Margot in the system would be phenomenal.

Additionally, the Braves currently need a RHed hitting 4th OFer to round out the bench. Guess what BJ is right now? Yup, he's a RHed hitting 4th OFer that just put up an .874 and .794 OPS vs LHers over the last 2 seasons. He could have been a daily defensive replacement for Kemp, and given Inciarte the occasional day off vs a tough LHer.

BJ would have been the perfect 4th OFer for the 2017 Braves. A BJ/LHer platoon in RF would be pretty good this coming season considering LHed hitting OFers were a surplus this offseason.

you contradicted yourself. BJ can't be a 4th OF if we never signed Nick... but your point is still valid.

on the other topic, I think it is bad baseball to tank for draft picks. I would love to have had Senzel and hated the Card series.. but you can't ask the team to go out and lay an egg.
Last years play was completely worth the #5 pick. To see the emotion and play that we have been deprived of for the last 2 years was so breath taking. Having the team jell and something to look forward to going into this year was fine by me..

 

[cajunrevenge]

I think BJ just had to go. I think he was a clubhouse cancer being a whiny bitch. He felt entitled to playing time no matter how bad he played. I remember him saying he started considering the Braves because they told him he wouldnt come in one day and be batting 8th. I bet you he still says he sucked for us because he didnt get enough of a chance which is absurd. I would rather have released him than attach him to Kimbrel. If BJ could have just fielded well, been a good base runner, and not act like a bitch I would have been okay with keeping him but he couldnt do any of those 3. Missing easy fly balls is not okay. Getting picked off first when you hit .198 is not okay. Whining that your losing playing time when your hitting .198 is not okay.

 

[SJ24]

I would trade our system for the Yankees' and not think twice, because they have more star power at the top.

Our system is deep, but I don't think we have as many dynamic talents.

Let's count Dansby and Gary Sanchez as major leaguers. I like Ozzie and Acuna as potential All-Stars for us. I like Judge, Torres and Rutherford as All-Stars for them. Clint Frazier may sneak in there. Maitan looks great, but he is 17. The thing is, the Yankees have a lot of promising young bats, too (they actually DID break the bank a few years back when they said they would)

When you look at our arms, we don't have a true ace. Allard could be a good 2 or 3. Maybe he turns into a 1 but I doubt it. Same with Fried/Anderson/Gohara/Wentz. Then you've got solid 3s and 4s like Weigel, Soroka, and Muller.

Touki and Newcomb are relievers, IMO.

When I look at the Yankees, they've got a legit number 1 in Kaprielian, some complete lottery tickets like Dillon Tate, and then some electric bullpen arms like Domingo Acevedo, Freicer Perez, and Albert Abreu.

I think we should have followed the Cubs model. Should have sold off Teheran and Freddie, sucked for an eternity, and gone after premium talent (bats or pitching- I don't think it matters which). The Olivera deal was dumb. Signing Markakis was dumb. Tacking on B.J. to Kimbrel was dumb.

JMO.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

you contradicted yourself. BJ can't be a 4th OF if we never signed Nick... but your point is still valid.

on the other topic, I think it is bad baseball to tank for draft picks. I would love to have had Senzel and hated the Card series.. but you can't ask the team to go out and lay an egg.
Last years play was completely worth the #5 pick. To see the emotion and play that we have been deprived of for the last 2 years was so breath taking. Having the team jell and something to look forward to going into this year was fine by me..

"I think it is bad baseball to tank for draft picks" It's the system baseball has created. It's just stupid to not maximize all avenues of a rebuild. Sure you don't ask a team to intentionally tank. BUT it's managements job to put the team on the field. It should have started with Swanson NOT being called up (essentially no reason for it), you don't trade for Kemp (arguably detrimental to rebuild), and you sit your best players early and often under the theme of seeing what you have in other players, ex. "we know what we have in Freddie. We need to know if Markakis can play 1B for next year in case of emergency- completely legitimate in baseball terms but allows you to take your best player off the field, play your RF out of position and play a AAAA guy in RF.

"To see the emotion and play that we have been deprived of for the last 2 years was so breath taking. Having the team jell and something to look forward to going into this year was fine by me." Absolutely and completely irrelevant. Last years team performance has no real basis on this years team performance outside of the possibility of some hypothetical momentum carrying over 6 months after the fact and with a largely different cast of characters. Those wins to finish out 2016 DON'T carry over to 2017. When the season starts the Braves WON'T be 22-11 or whatever. All that happened was win starved Braves fans got to feel a little better for a couple of months and that has no carry over or effect in regards to an effective rebuild. Some few dumb schmucks may be convinced to buy season tickets because of the finish to 2016. But those people obviously don't know anything about baseball and are in for a very rude awakening IF they based their ticket purchase based on the fact that a crippled team limped over the finish line faster than those who just sat down 50 yards short.

 

[smootness]

I would trade our system for the Yankees' and not think twice, because they have more star power at the top.

Our system is deep, but I don't think we have as many dynamic talents.

Let's count Dansby and Gary Sanchez as major leaguers. I like Ozzie and Acuna as potential All-Stars for us. I like Judge, Torres and Rutherford as All-Stars for them. Clint Frazier may sneak in there. Maitan looks great, but he is 17. The thing is, the Yankees have a lot of promising young bats, too (they actually DID break the bank a few years back when they said they would)

When you look at our arms, we don't have a true ace. Allard could be a good 2 or 3. Maybe he turns into a 1 but I doubt it. Same with Fried/Anderson/Gohara/Wentz. Then you've got solid 3s and 4s like Weigel, Soroka, and Muller.

Touki and Newcomb are relievers, IMO.

When I look at the Yankees, they've got a legit number 1 in Kaprielian, some complete lottery tickets like Dillon Tate, and then some electric bullpen arms like Domingo Acevedo, Freicer Perez, and Albert Abreu.

I think we should have followed the Cubs model. Should have sold off Teheran and Freddie, sucked for an eternity, and gone after premium talent (bats or pitching- I don't think it matters which). The Olivera deal was dumb. Signing Markakis was dumb. Tacking on B.J. to Kimbrel was dumb.

JMO.

The Yankees really don't have more star power at the top, though.

Let's include both Dansby and Sanchez. Dansby is the better prospect. They have Torres, who is slightly higher than Albies right now, but it's fairly negligible; Clint Frazier, who is not better than Acuna; Jorge Mateo, who has slipped; Rutherford? Maitan is better. Judge? His shine is off. So judging just the bats, you can argue the Yankees have more top talent. The pitching isn't even close, though.

Kaprielian a legit 1? And Dillon Tate a 'lottery ticket' but Touki and Newcomb are just relievers, and apparently not even 'electric bullpen arms' like the Yankees' guys? Now you're just trolling.

We have a deeper system than the Yankees, and it's better at the top and younger overall.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

The Yankees really don't have more star power at the top, though.

Let's include both Dansby and Sanchez. Dansby is the better prospect. They have Torres, who is slightly higher than Albies right now, but it's fairly negligible; Clint Frazier, who is not better than Acuna; Jorge Mateo, who has slipped; Rutherford? Maitan is better. Judge? His shine is off. So judging just the bats, you can argue the Yankees have more top talent. The pitching isn't even close, though.

Kaprielian a legit 1? And Dillon Tate a 'lottery ticket' but Touki and Newcomb are just relievers, and apparently not even 'electric bullpen arms' like the Yankees' guys? Now you're just trolling.

We have a deeper system than the Yankees, and it's better at the top and younger overall.

I agree. And in response to FF and JT being traded I think we made the right call on that one. Do you have traded them last season would have sold them way below their value. And i'm not sure trading him this off-season would have been a good move. Personally I feel copy and Company have done a good job of trading guys who needed to be traded and keeping guys who needed to be kept

 

[DirkPiggler]

I agree. And in response to FF and JT being traded I think we made the right call on that one. Do you have traded them last season would have sold them way below their value. And i'm not sure trading him this off-season would have been a good move. Personally I feel copy and Company have done a good job of trading guys who needed to be traded and keeping guys who needed to be kept

Agree, particularly on Freeman. Even if you write this year off as another stage in the rebuild, he's signed to a below market contract for another four years after that. You don't trade a guy who is cost controlled and should be in his prime for multiple years while the team is (should be) a contender. You don't trade a cornerstone at a nice salary for lottery tickets unless you plan to suck for the entire remainder of his contract.

Teheran could've gone either way. He's also cost-controlled for his expected prime years at a well below market value salary, but we all know how pitchers tend to break. I wouldn't have had a problem dealing him if we could get someone to overpay slightly with a nice prospect haul. The fact that he's still a Brave is probably more of a factor of some of the younger guys like Wisler and Blair not developing they way the front office hoped.

Either way, keeping those guys didn't hamper the rebuild. The rebuild will have had plenty of time to develop before their contracts expire. If the Braves still aren't contending in a couple of years it means that the prospects we got didn't develop as expected. It won't be because they held onto Freeman or Teheran.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I agree. And in response to FF and JT being traded I think we made the right call on that one. Do you have traded them last season would have sold them way below their value. And i'm not sure trading him this off-season would have been a good move. Personally I feel copy and Company have done a good job of trading guys who needed to be traded and keeping guys who needed to be kept

I agree.

FF was a great hold.

JT nobody wanted to move. But the thought was at the deadline we could have gotten a Sale-like package for JT. In that case I probably would have taken it. In reality we probably didn't get offered anything like that Sale deal. We should keep JT unless someone makes it a huge overpay.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I agree.

FF was a great hold.

JT nobody wanted to move. But the thought was at the deadline we could have gotten a Sale-like package for JT. In that case I probably would have taken it. In reality we probably didn't get offered anything like that Sale deal. We should keep JT unless someone makes it a huge overpay.

I think that is the key. We as internet GM's traded JT for this massive over pay... when in reality, we didn't get what we wanted or needed to justify the move.. and thus Coppy, rightfully, kept him.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I agree. And in response to FF and JT being traded I think we made the right call on that one. Do you have traded them last season would have sold them way below their value. And i'm not sure trading him this off-season would have been a good move. Personally I feel copy and Company have done a good job of trading guys who needed to be traded and keeping guys who needed to be kept

As for FF and JT, it all really depends on how fast the team really becomes playoff competitive. And it depends on what could have been had for either or both. I don't think anyone is saying or has said that they both should be traded just because they need to be gone. I think most who have floated the idea, and I definitely speak for myself, are saying that the team should have been open to trading either or both IF the right offer came along.

The idea of hanging onto Teheran carries significant risk because pitchers are pitchers. And you have to ask yourself how replaceable is he? Will he continue to develop into a true ACE or will he settle in as a 2 and eventually slide to a 3 or 4? If you think he can become a true ACE in the mold of Bumgarner, Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, etc. then maybe you hang onto him if you think you will compete in the contract time he is under where he still has 2-3 years of control. If you think he lands in the good but not great category long term (as I do) and you add in the risk associated with pitching or if you think he may be and ACE for a while but begin to fade by the time you are ready to compete, if the right offer happens then you move him.

The same thing goes for Freeman with some modifications. Freeman is a better bet to be healthy and remain good, although there is no certainty as his thumb injury showed. But he's owed more money that Teheran as well so any trade of Freeman would have been a trade of Freemans talents and contract obligations for whatever talent you get in return. They won't move Freeman (and it likely was never an option) BUT for the right return, I would have done it.

The trade deadline and this offseason should have clearly shown that for top end talent teams are willing to trade virtually any of their prospects, at least some teams are generally depending on how close they think they are to winning something. Would it have been possible to trade Freeman to a team like Houston for a return of something like 3B Bregman, 1B Reed, OF Tucker, OF Fisher? When you see what the WS got for Sale who is a bigger risk and under less control, I would say maybe. Would a team like the Yankees trade something like Torres, Frazier, Rutherford and Severino for Freeman? Those are the type deals that I would move Freeman for. Then you use Freeman's money to fill in short term and plan long term, maybe sign Chris Carter for 1B (just signed with the NYY for $3.5M) for a year then shop in the Hosmer, Morales, Santana FA line next year if internal or trade options don't work out and use the balance of dollars to help in other areas.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I think that is the key. We as internet GM's traded JT for this massive over pay... when in reality, we didn't get what we wanted or needed to justify the move.. and thus Coppy, rightfully, kept him.

I think you HAVE to have an overpay for Freeman. Not so with Teheran. If you get good value, maybe a bit of an overpay, you do it.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I think you HAVE to have an overpay for Freeman. Not so with Teheran. If you get good value, maybe a bit of an overpay, you do it.

I tend to agree with you more than not.. but I think you have to get an over pay for both. I have a feeling both were open to trade talks, but the asking price was not going to be met.

Again, I was on the trade them bandwagon with you. But in hind sight, I think I might have been wrong. We need to keep some of our stars to build around. I think we will be in contention during their contracts. And so does the FO.

And the Houston return for FF is very big.. an over pay. but even that is something that comes with risk. I think the FO feels the rebuild is now in the down hill run and it is time to start putting pieces around the core to start competing.

 

[Enscheff]

I think you HAVE to have an overpay for Freeman. Not so with Teheran. If you get good value, maybe a bit of an overpay, you do it.

As long as they trade Teheran after the 2018 season, or at the 2019 trade deadline, all should be ok. Opening a new ball park in the middle of a rebuild is an unprecedented task, and I'm not sure they could have stripped the team down much more than they did..practically speaking.

But yes, the White Sox showed exactly how a rebuilding team should handle pitching assets. They have executed the first 3 months of a rebuild perfectly, in my opinion.

 

[Russ2dollas]

As long as they trade Teheran after the 2018 season, or at the 2019 trade deadline, all should be ok. Opening a new ball park in the middle of a rebuild is an unprecedented task, and I'm not sure they could have stripped the team down much more than they did..practically speaking.

But yes, the White Sox showed exactly how a rebuilding team should handle pitching assets. They have executed the first 3 months of a rebuild perfectly, in my opinion.

It helps that the Sox had a super Stud in Sale who they didn't like (uniform incident etc) and the Nats to overpay. They still have Q and guys like Rodon.

I agree that we should be flipping Tehran eventually. I am confident that by 2018 we should know enough about these pitchers to make educated decisions. I am hopeful at least one of them is tracking to be a 1/2 guy and we have a couple who look like plus options at lower spots. We should have enough pitching that we can turn JT into a position hole filler or restock the farm some.

That said, JT is good and cheap and cost controlled. I don't know why we'd ever move him for a poo poo platter. We should keep him until someone is desperate for a starter and gives us an impact guy. Not necessarily Shelby Miller deal, but we'd need at least the Dansby part of the Shelby deal IMO.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

believe it that if two of Wisler/Blair/Newk step up and show they are ready and Weigel and Fried continue their good work, you will start to hear more JT rumors. He is still our king asset and will be utilized thusly. I would expect a next off season type trade if we see some pushing from below...maybe deadline 2018. I really don't think Coppy wants to wait to 2019.. the risk starts to get too high.