Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

[Southcack77]

Correct.

I've seen non-stop hysteria about how they were gutting the system to go for it and yet no moves have been made except to sell an expiring contract just as one might have predicted when that contract was acquired.

I have no doubt the Braves are inquiring about controllable pitchers and I have no doubt that there is no reason a team with a controllable pitcher would want to hide that the most prospect rich organization was inquiring. At some point, maybe the Braves do pull the trigger and part with some assets, but it won't be to contend in 2017.

 

[sturg33]

While there has been lots of suspicion cast towards the Front Office making dumb decisions, they've not actually done anything real dumb (yet).

They did a year ago... and he's our left fielder for 3 years

 

[thewupk]

At what point does anyone believe he hasn't been in "seller territory" since the day most of the vets (particularly the short-term ones) were acquired. If ANYTHING of value was being offered for Dat Dude, Dickey, Markakis, or even Kemp or Adams they'd be gone too - and apparently the only people that don't understand that frequent this message board. Since nothing's been offered, they're all still Braves. Chances are that's still going to be the case Monday as well. It's pretty comical to read the back-and-forth here at times - some continuing to beat the "sell and keep rebuilding" drum in one thread while continuing to point out that there's nothing of value to sell outside of Freeman, Inciarte, Teheran, and Folty in another. You guys continue to point out that these vets aren't good enough to get a postseason start on a contending team, and rarely does anyone disagree with you. Of course, Garcia is obviously better than Aaron Blair, so why trade him for someone who won't sniff our Top 30 prospects? Does anyone really want to watch the games for the next two months if Phillips and Dickey are traded for someone else's #28 prospects (who will end up being released because of the depth already in our system) and Jace and Blair take their places to keep from starting service-time clocks? I'll go out on a limb and make one of those tough predictions like you did about our OF corners - if that's the case, the attendance numbers will follow the win-loss %.

As for predictions about the corners being bad -

1.) Was that really hard? And 2.) How many people ever disagreed with that "prediction"?

Just a feeling, but I'm willing to bet you won't find many posts where someone thought Kemp or Markakis were going to be much more than they are - and were serious about it, at least. Markakis is what he is, and has been pretty much since the day he was signed. Kemp was brought in as part of a bad contract swap AND to hopefully be a right-handed power threat behind Freeman so that everyone wouldn't pitch around him. He's been exactly that until recently when his power disappeared.

The funny thing about all of that is I came up with it without a calculator and didn't have to consult FanGraphs or a spreadsheet.

Braves are desperate to contend for some reason instead of properly rebuilding. Any small chance of contention and they are going to try and go for it. Braves are now also 8-11 against the tough part of their schedule which is a 68 win pace. Good job on thinking that's impressive.

Do you not remember the start of the season when everyone was sucking Kemp off at being a reborn player and that his lack of defense was exaggerated because 'he catches what he gets to'?

 

[thewupk]

They did a year ago... and he's our left fielder for 3 years

I guess it depends what you consider 'real dumb' but the Braves have clearly made several mistakes during this rebuild process.

 

[smootness]

Braves are desperate to contend for some reason instead of properly rebuilding. Any small chance of contention and they are going to try and go for it. Braves are now also 8-11 against the tough part of their schedule which is a 68 win pace. Good job on thinking that's impressive.

Do you not remember the start of the season when everyone was sucking Kemp off at being a reborn player and that his lack of defense was exaggerated because 'he catches what he gets to'?

Can you name any move yet that has been made in an attempt to 'go for it'?

I'll concede that the Olivera move was dumb, and the Kemp move on top of it also dumb, but I'm not sure I would categorize either move as one designed to 'go for it.' But setting those aside, can you give me anything else? You say they will try to go for it with any chance of contention, but they haven't done that yet, so why assume it?

 

[sturg33]

Can you name any move yet that has been made in an attempt to 'go for it'?

I'll concede that the Olivera move was dumb, and the Kemp move on top of it also dumb, but I'm not sure I would categorize either move as one designed to 'go for it.' But setting those aside, can you give me anything else? You say they will try to go for it with any chance of contention, but they haven't done that yet, so why assume it?

They didn't trade Julio when it was clear as day they should have. Had to have that "Ace" open the new park

 

[sturg33]

I guess it depends what you consider 'real dumb' but the Braves have clearly made several mistakes during this rebuild process.

I consider Kemp as an 8.5 on the 1-10 "dumb scale"... Olivera, of course is a 10

 

[thewupk]

Can you name any move yet that has been made in an attempt to 'go for it'?

I'll concede that the Olivera move was dumb, and the Kemp move on top of it also dumb, but I'm not sure I would categorize either move as one designed to 'go for it.' But setting those aside, can you give me anything else? You say they will try to go for it with any chance of contention, but they haven't done that yet, so why assume it?

Look at the rebuild as a whole. To me the overall theme is trying to contend before you are ready. Rushing. It's been pretty apparent from the start.

 

[sturg33]

As for predictions about the corners being bad -

1.) Was that really hard? And 2.) How many people ever disagreed with that "prediction"?

Just a feeling, but I'm willing to bet you won't find many posts where someone thought Kemp or Markakis were going to be much more than they are - and were serious about it, at least. Markakis is what he is, and has been pretty much since the day he was signed. Kemp was brought in as part of a bad contract swap AND to hopefully be a right-handed power threat behind Freeman so that everyone wouldn't pitch around him. He's been exactly that until recently when his power disappeared.

The funny thing about all of that is I came up with it without a calculator and didn't have to consult FanGraphs or a spreadsheet.

To pretend that there weren't many posters on this board who not only thought that they weren't bad, but actually are good - is laughable.

Fact is - they're both terrible. The numbers guys were right again.

Let's hope Kemp starts loving playing for Atlanta again and Markakis can re-start that weight lifting regimen in the offseason.

 

[TheBravos]

To pretend that there weren't many posters on this board who not only thought that they weren't bad, but actually are good - is laughable.

Fact is - they're both terrible. The numbers guys were right again.

Let's hope Kemp starts loving playing for Atlanta again and Markakis can re-start that weight lifting regimen in the offseason.

I thought the Braves would be about like they are....good at times but not consistant and a little below .500. I was terrified they would do just well enough to make Coppy "go for it". I'm glad the main danger of that appears to have past. Trading Garcia was a very good sign.

My hand is high...I am one of the goobers that thought Kemp was reborn in Atl. I was dead wrong...dead wrong. I think he was reborn mentally, but his hammys are not. They need to cut ties as soon as possible with he a Nick.

Coppy and Company have been below average on the trade front on most accounts (minus the one big one). They have done better on smaller deals. The same goes for signings...poor on big signings and good on the smaller ones. Basically, for the most part...when they try their hand at a big trade or a big signing...they usual don't do well. When they are conservative on both fronts, they have done very well.

The strength of this front office has been their ability to draft well. They have done very well in this department.

 

[sturg33]

I thought the Braves would be about like they are....good at times but not consistant and a little below .500. I was terrified they would do just well enough to make Coppy "go for it". I'm glad the main danger of that appears to have past. Trading Garcia was a very good sign.

My hand is high...I am one of the goobers that thought Kemp was reborn in Atl. I was dead wrong...dead wrong. I think he was reborn mentally, but his hammys are not. They need to cut ties as soon as possible with he a Nick.

Coppy and Company have been below average on the trade front on most accounts (minus the one big one). They have done better on smaller deals. The same goes for signings...poor on big signings and good on the smaller ones. Basically, for the most part...when they try their hand at a big trade or a big signing...they usual don't do well. When they are conservative on both fronts, they have done very well.

The strength of this front office has been their ability to draft well. They have done very well in this department.

I agree with almost all of this

 

[weso1]

The Upton, Gattis, Heyward and Miller trades were all fairly inarguably good trades. The Kimbrel trade is complicated, because the Braves freed up quite a bit of money and it's hard to say what they accomplished with that money. Can you argue that we got Toussaint because of that trade? And I think it's easy to forget that we also got a draft pick in that trade which I think they turned into Riley. What else did we get with the money saved on that deal?

To me the only two that were fairly inarguably bad trades were the Olivera trade and the Simmons trade.

 

[DirkPiggler]

Look at the rebuild as a whole. To me the overall theme is trying to contend before you are ready. Rushing. It's been pretty apparent from the start.

The thing we lose sight of sometimes is that the team is a business that is ultimately run by people who know little and care even less about baseball.

Smart baseball moves would've been to trade everyone other than MAYBE Freeman and commit to a 5+ year rebuild. Those of us posting here who are somewhat knowledgeable would've been behind this, and probably would've still attended the same amount of games. Joe and Jill Transplant who go to ballparks in good times only would've seen a team that sucked ass and decided to spend their entertainment dollars elsewhere. And there are a lot more of them than there are of us.

Opening a new ballpark definitely complicated the rebuilding process, and put the team in a position where proper management of baseball and finance are at odds. Our best hope as fans is that the increased attendance and real estate dollars from The Battery enable the Johns to have a bigger than expected payroll increase which will enable the team to fill holes externally that would've been filled from the minor league system in a proper rebuild.

One thing that is inexcusable for both the baseball people and the bean counters like McGuirk and his bosses in Denver is the apparent failure to understand the concept of sunk costs. Kemp and Markrapass are not hurting anything being on a team that has no reasonable playoff aspirations, but they need to be gone or at least marginalized by the beginning of next season regardless of how much money they are owed. The only redeeming quality of either of those guys right now is that they might be protecting the front office from themselves in keeping them from prematurely promoting Acuña. The idea that those two have to be in the lineup somewhere because of their salaries is counter to sound financial and economic principles.

 

[thewupk]

The thing we lose sight of sometimes is that the team is a business that is ultimately run by people who know little and care even less about baseball.

Smart baseball moves would've been to trade everyone other than MAYBE Freeman and commit to a 5+ year rebuild. Those of us posting here who are somewhat knowledgeable would've been behind this, and probably would've still attended the same amount of games. Joe and Jill Transplant who go to ballparks in good times only would've seen a team that sucked ass and decided to spend their entertainment dollars elsewhere. And there are a lot more of them than there are of us.

Opening a new ballpark definitely complicated the rebuilding process, and put the team in a position where proper management of baseball and finance are at odds. Our best hope as fans is that the increased attendance and real estate dollars from The Battery enable the Johns to have a bigger than expected payroll increase which will enable the team to fill holes externally that would've been filled from the minor league system in a proper rebuild.

One thing that is inexcusable for both the baseball people and the bean counters like McGuirk and his bosses in Denver is the apparent failure to understand the concept of sunk costs. Kemp and Markrapass are not hurting anything being on a team that has no reasonable playoff aspirations, but they need to be gone or at least marginalized by the beginning of next season regardless of how much money they are owed. The only redeeming quality of either of those guys right now is that they might be protecting the front office from themselves in keeping them from prematurely promoting Acuña. The idea that they have to be in the lineup somewhere because of their salaries is counter to sound financial and economic principles.

I agree there is likely pressure from the higher ups to contend as quickly as possible. It's why I don't put all the blame on Coppy or Hart when he was 'gm' but on the upper management as a whole

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I agree there is likely pressure from the higher ups to contend as quickly as possible. It's why I don't put all the blame on Coppy or Hart when he was 'gm' but on the upper management as a whole

I still think JS and Cox.. more JS have more play in what is done. They live in the 90's and need to go..

 

[Southcack77]

The Upton, Gattis, Heyward and Miller trades were all fairly inarguably good trades. The Kimbrel trade is complicated, because the Braves freed up quite a bit of money and it's hard to say what they accomplished with that money. Can you argue that we got Toussaint because of that trade? And I think it's easy to forget that we also got a draft pick in that trade which I think they turned into Riley. What else did we get with the money saved on that deal?

To me the only two that were fairly inarguably bad trades were the Olivera trade and the Simmons trade.

The question with Simmons is whether you want to be paying him 11m, 13m, and 15m in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

I'm entirely ambivalent about it. Much of his value is historically tied up in his defense.

This year, his offense has popped in the first half due to a power surge, a few more walks, and higher than normal BABIP.

The last time he had a power surge, it disappeared for three years, so it is hard to say if this is permanent. He's 27 so maybe he is transitioning into his older body and strength, or maybe he's getting a bit lucky in a season where balls are flying. His HR/FB is far above what it has been before, for example? Perhaps he had a great offseason in the weight room and is in the best shape of his life? Could be.

Any event, this is the first time he's been an above average hitter. Is it a sample size issue? If the power is real, he starts to play as an all star caliber player, but absent power he's really just a 2-3 WAR player on the strength of defense.

Maybe someone will be around to drop a defensive deterioration chart later to shed light on his reasonable expectations there.

If the argument is he should have been traded for something better then fine, though I don't think he was particularly perceived as especially valuable.

Three years of Simmons at 39 million or 6 more years of Newcomb cost controlled?

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I love Newk.. but Simmons was generational defensive player. It is hard for me to look at Simmons trade as a good one... that said, if the results do pan out like I think they might, then we all might be happy that we acquired Newk regardless of the cost..

 

[thewupk]

The question with Simmons is whether you want to be paying him 11m, 13m, and 15m in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

I'm entirely ambivalent about it. Much of his value is historically tied up in his defense.

This year, his offense has popped in the first half due to a power surge, a few more walks, and higher than normal BABIP.

The last time he had a power surge, it disappeared for three years, so it is hard to say if this is permanent. He's 27 so maybe he is transitioning into his older body and strength, or maybe he's getting a bit lucky in a season where balls are flying. His HR/FB is far above what it has been before, for example? Perhaps he had a great offseason in the weight room and is in the best shape of his life? Could be.

Any event, this is the first time he's been an above average hitter. Is it a sample size issue? If the power is real, he starts to play as an all star caliber player, but absent power he's really just a 2-3 WAR player on the strength of defense.

Maybe someone will be around to drop a defensive deterioration chart later to shed light on his reasonable expectations there.

If the argument is he should have been traded for something better then fine, though I don't think he was particularly perceived as especially valuable.

Three years of Simmons at 39 million or 6 more years of Newcomb cost controlled?

It was actually 5 years of Simmons at 53 million.

Simmons as a 3 WAR player on that contract is valuable and it's likely Newk doesn't come close to it.

 

[Oklahomahawk]

I consider Kemp as an 8.5 on the 1-10 "dumb scale"... Olivera, of course is a 10

I thought we had agreed that Olivera was a 14.

 

[Southcack77]

The thing we lose sight of sometimes is that the team is a business that is ultimately run by people who know little and care even less about baseball.

Smart baseball moves would've been to trade everyone other than MAYBE Freeman and commit to a 5+ year rebuild. Those of us posting here who are somewhat knowledgeable would've been behind this, and probably would've still attended the same amount of games. Joe and Jill Transplant who go to ballparks in good times only would've seen a team that sucked ass and decided to spend their entertainment dollars elsewhere. And there are a lot more of them than there are of us.

Opening a new ballpark definitely complicated the rebuilding process, and put the team in a position where proper management of baseball and finance are at odds. Our best hope as fans is that the increased attendance and real estate dollars from The Battery enable the Johns to have a bigger than expected payroll increase which will enable the team to fill holes externally that would've been filled from the minor league system in a proper rebuild.

One thing that is inexcusable for both the baseball people and the bean counters like McGuirk and his bosses in Denver is the apparent failure to understand the concept of sunk costs. Kemp and Markrapass are not hurting anything being on a team that has no reasonable playoff aspirations, but they need to be gone or at least marginalized by the beginning of next season regardless of how much money they are owed. The only redeeming quality of either of those guys right now is that they might be protecting the front office from themselves in keeping them from prematurely promoting Acuña. The idea that those two have to be in the lineup somewhere because of their salaries is counter to sound financial and economic principles.

1. The purpose of a baseball club is to sell tickets. That's why the team exists.
2. While the concept of tanking is somewhat new and trendy right now, it is far from universally accepted. I don't think it ever will be.
3. Trading five seasons for the best possibility of a long run fueled by prospects might seem like a smart move in a baseball sense, but in a business sense and in a practical sense throwing away five seasons might well be a negative move regardless of how the rebuild turns out.

The assumption seems to be that the club could not win without that much misery, but the reality is that all you are doing is increasing the probability that a distant team might win bigger. Nothing prevents a team that doesn't tank from winning by making good choices. Nothing guarantees the tanker will win bigger even with the better odds.

It sounds really good on paper and I would have been perfectly happy if the Braves had decided to tear it to the ground. But its far from certain that it would work or that going a different way will not work. And it is pretty moot when it was not an option for the Braves ownership.