Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread
- Thread starter Oklahomabrave
- Start date
He seems like the opposite of what Beane generally likes, IMO. He likes guys that are closer to ready that carry less risk, at the expense of overall talent level and ceiling. He is the king of drafting the college guy who could maybe be a utility guy. Pretty similar philosophy to Wren.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Everyone seems to assume that if the Braves move Garcia or Phillips or Adams that they will not get much back. I think you CAN get an excellent return if you are willing to take talent that is very far away. Or, you can get a good return if you are willing to package to one team.
If you look at teams like the Yankees you've got guys way down their list like Estevan Florial, RHP Jorge Guzman, 3B Dermis Garcia that won't help you in 2017, 2018 or maybe even 2020. But, they could eventually develop into something down the road. They have upside. If the Braves could send Jamie and Adams to the Yankees for Florial, Garcia and Guzman most would think it a disaster because they won't see them for 2-3 years minimum. But, newsflash, you won't be seeing Garcia on the team next year.
I think you can find value, especially with international guys who are developing, if you are willing to wait for their arrival.
If you look at teams like the Yankees you've got guys way down their list like Estevan Florial, RHP Jorge Guzman, 3B Dermis Garcia that won't help you in 2017, 2018 or maybe even 2020. But, they could eventually develop into something down the road. They have upside. If the Braves could send Jamie and Adams to the Yankees for Florial, Garcia and Guzman most would think it a disaster because they won't see them for 2-3 years minimum. But, newsflash, you won't be seeing Garcia on the team next year.
I think you can find value, especially with international guys who are developing, if you are willing to wait for their arrival.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Verlander is very interesting. His contract actually lines up with the Braves timeline pretty well in that he comes off the books in 2019 with option for 2020.
His salary matches up with Garcia, Colon, and Johnson pretty perfectly. That doesn't give the Braves much operating room so you would probably see another trade aimed at freeing up payroll or take advantage of tigers money sent back. Maybe they get a bump from the stadium receipts that helps too. That would be ideal. Or You could let Dickey go and that would give you some money to play with, and you could bring up Medlen or another kid.
If Verlander hit the Braves would suddenly turn into a team that would be dangerous in a series, which they decidedly don't seem like now. IF he missed, he's probably still better than their options and they shed his contract at the same time as Kemp. And I'd guess he'd remain flippable to some degree.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I am not sure I know what that means.
I think it means, "we aren't going to win the bidding war for a piece, but if someone allows us to fleece them we will be there to take advantage".
Or at least that's what I hope it means.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I like that meaning.
msstate7
Well-known member
Pretty sure he means Albies isn't enough right now, so I'm about to throw in choice of Swanson, acuna, soroka, and allard. #allin
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Pretty sure you're panicking.
Like they did with Kemp...got it.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Before smartass Enscheff says no way Braves get Machado, delusional fans yada yada yada.
Only way i'd even consider it is unless they got a window to sign him, otherwise no way i'd dip into the farm for 1 year for him and a pick.
@matthewpouliot
Atlanta is the team I think the Orioles would want to deal with here, if the Braves are willing to dip into their stockpile for a 2018 run.
Only way i'd even consider it is unless they got a window to sign him, otherwise no way i'd dip into the farm for 1 year for him and a pick.
@matthewpouliot
Atlanta is the team I think the Orioles would want to deal with here, if the Braves are willing to dip into their stockpile for a 2018 run.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
IMO any trade for Verlander that doesn't start with Kemp and Neck going to Detroit to clear payroll would be a bad trade
Hey, at least trading for Machado makes sense.
This silly notion about signing an extension as part of a trade aside (not sure what fantasy land folks are living in when they suggest this, but they always do), he does fill a big need.
Whether or not now is the time to back the prospect truck up for a player like Machado is open for debate (though not much of a debate), but he isn't a stupid target at all.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Only problem is he'd basically be a 1 yr rental but if the cost wasnt that much, if we could get him without any of our top 6 its worth a shot.
He'd obviously fill a big need and given hes a Boras client i think, no way he signs pre trade of course. Donaldson might be a little cheaper given age.
Yyyyyeah, you're not getting him without any of those guys, even if he wasn't under contract for 2018.
But I'm sure the Braves are who everyone wants to deal with if they're selling.
Let's take a look at Machado and try to project him going forward. He is currently slashing .232/.299/.443 (.742 OPS) with a horrid BABIP of .242 (61 hits in 252 balls in play).
Adjusting his BABIP up to his projected .295 value gives him an an additional 13 hits. Assuming singles:doubles in 2:1 ratio and that's conservatively 9 singles and 4 doubles added to his current total.
That results in an adjusted slash line of .270/.333/.493 (.826 OPS).
FG projects his OPS for the rest of the season to be .825-.894, and to produce 2.1-2.7 more WAR.
Assuming 2 WAR over Aug and Sept at a salary of $3.8M gives him a surplus value of $16.2M, multiplied by a 2x contender's premium gives him ~$30M for the rest of 2017.
Projecting him for 5+ WAR in 2018 at a salary of ~$16M gives him a surplus value of $35M+ for 2018.
So $65M+ to acquire him now, or $35M+ to acquire him this offseason. You can piece your own packages together using these prospect values:
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/
And no, the Braves aren't getting Machado for a "clv special" collection of spare parts. He will require 1-3 Top 100 guys, headlined by a Top 25 guy, no matter when he is acquired.
Adjusting his BABIP up to his projected .295 value gives him an an additional 13 hits. Assuming singles:doubles in 2:1 ratio and that's conservatively 9 singles and 4 doubles added to his current total.
That results in an adjusted slash line of .270/.333/.493 (.826 OPS).
FG projects his OPS for the rest of the season to be .825-.894, and to produce 2.1-2.7 more WAR.
Assuming 2 WAR over Aug and Sept at a salary of $3.8M gives him a surplus value of $16.2M, multiplied by a 2x contender's premium gives him ~$30M for the rest of 2017.
Projecting him for 5+ WAR in 2018 at a salary of ~$16M gives him a surplus value of $35M+ for 2018.
So $65M+ to acquire him now, or $35M+ to acquire him this offseason. You can piece your own packages together using these prospect values:
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/
And no, the Braves aren't getting Machado for a "clv special" collection of spare parts. He will require 1-3 Top 100 guys, headlined by a Top 25 guy, no matter when he is acquired.