zbhargrove
Well-known member
I would offer Allard and Pache
Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread
- Thread starter Oklahomabrave
- Start date
I would offer Allard and Pache
I could live with that for Gray, though Coppy will have to kick in some more MLB-ready stuff Beane seems to over value...like DPete and Rio.
My contention with acquiring Gray is that now the Braves assume his injury risk for the rest of 2017...when they aren't contending.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I'd be ok with Gray but depends on the cost to get him and if he'd sign an extension.
I'd try to hold onto Gohara, Wright, Soroka, and our big 3 hitting prospects. Allard or Anderson i'd put in among others.
And we'd have to make some more moves this winter or it would make no sense.
I'd try to hold onto Gohara, Wright, Soroka, and our big 3 hitting prospects. Allard or Anderson i'd put in among others.
And we'd have to make some more moves this winter or it would make no sense.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I still get the HO vibe on this. It is like an obsession with 'trade FOR a young controllable front line starter'. I just picture a crazed looking Coppi pushing in all his chips at the poker table because there is a possible inside straight on the river. He wants it so bad, he will give up everything to get it. Now I am being a bit dramatic.. but it really does worry me.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I dont think we'd trade 2 of our top 6 for Gray.
We need some impact hitting especially with Swanson struggling but it is concerning and i dont think the time is right now to do it.
I think it would cost something like Anderson/Allard, Muller/Wentz, TD, and Wisler/Sims/Blair for Gray which is alot but wouldnt gut our system by any means.
We need some impact hitting especially with Swanson struggling but it is concerning and i dont think the time is right now to do it.
I think it would cost something like Anderson/Allard, Muller/Wentz, TD, and Wisler/Sims/Blair for Gray which is alot but wouldnt gut our system by any means.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
No. You're not alone.
It's probably illustrative to do the Gray valuation again. I can't remember where I posted it before, so I'll try to replicate it.
Gray is projected to produce 1.1 fWAR at a cost of $1.2M for the rest of this season. Multiplying by a 2x contender's premium, that's about $20M in surplus value just for this year.
Gray will probably earn ~$15M in his final 2 years of arbitration, and is probably projected to produce ~6 WAR over that time. That's a surplus value of about $45M over the next 2 years with limited downside risk due to the fact he can simply be non-tendered.
So how do the Braves get to $65M in surplus value to get him right now? Here's the updated values of the Braves Top 100 prospects:
Wright $32.10
Acuna $69.67
Albies $45.34
Soroka $32.56
Allard $30.72
Gohara $15.20
Anderson $17.03
Maitan $20.82
Plus Pache and Waters in the $15M+ range each.
Gray is projected to produce 1.1 fWAR at a cost of $1.2M for the rest of this season. Multiplying by a 2x contender's premium, that's about $20M in surplus value just for this year.
Gray will probably earn ~$15M in his final 2 years of arbitration, and is probably projected to produce ~6 WAR over that time. That's a surplus value of about $45M over the next 2 years with limited downside risk due to the fact he can simply be non-tendered.
So how do the Braves get to $65M in surplus value to get him right now? Here's the updated values of the Braves Top 100 prospects:
Wright $32.10
Acuna $69.67
Albies $45.34
Soroka $32.56
Allard $30.72
Gohara $15.20
Anderson $17.03
Maitan $20.82
Plus Pache and Waters in the $15M+ range each.
The biggest glimmer of hope I can offer is that the A's tend to over-value guys that are MLB-ready. I bet they would have LOVED Mallex as part of a Gray package (as did the Rays).
If Coppy can get Gray for a ****-sandwich of guys like Wisler, Blair, Sims, Newk, DPete, Rio, JPete etc being used to take up about half of Gray's $65M in surplus value, he might be able to get him for something like Allard plus 3-4 of those MLB-ready guys.
SJ24
New member
You might as well be speaking Greek with this stuff. Why do we multiply by 2 for a contender's premium? Where would you suggest I read to learn more about surplus value?
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
If we had to trade one of our prized pitchers, i'd trade Allard.
Cant hang onto everyone, and Gohara has passed him, and Wentz might this time next year as well as having Anderson, Soroka, Wright, and Gohara.
But i'd hold onto our big 3 hitting prospects, we dont have the hitting prospects to survive that loss in a trade.
Cant hang onto everyone, and Gohara has passed him, and Wentz might this time next year as well as having Anderson, Soroka, Wright, and Gohara.
But i'd hold onto our big 3 hitting prospects, we dont have the hitting prospects to survive that loss in a trade.
Ozzie Swanson
Well-known member
Just out of curiosity why is Gohara's projected surplus value half as much as Allard and Soroka's? I figured his impressive year thus far along with his stuff would have his value shooting up.
The general premise is a guy's surplus value is the WAR he is projected to produce times $10M (because that's what 1 WAR costs on the FA market right now), and then subtracting what he is actually going be be paid. The linchpin of the theory is that a guy who just signed a FA contract has, by definition, zero surplus value...otherwise another team would have offered to pay him more. Guys in their arb or pre-arb years are being paid much less than they would make on the FA market, so they tend to have large surplus values.
The contender's premium is a term describing that a team who knows (or thinks they know) they will be contending for a playoff spot will pay more to acquire wins (and performance in the postseason) than non-contenders or teams that don't know they are contenders (as is the case very early in the season). That value is typically estimated as 2x the players surplus value for the rest of the current season.
The surplus values for prospects is summarized here:
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/
The general idea is that over the last 25+ years, prospects ranked at various levels ultimately produced an average surplus value that allows us to calculate what the surplus value is likely to be for current prospects.
This model of surplus values has proven accurate on every major trade in the last decade (including recent trades like Eaton and Sale and Q and Garcia) except the Miller/Swanson/Inciarte debacle, and the Torres/Chapman trade. The inability for Stewart to properly value these assets is the primary reason he is no longer employed by the DBacks. The Cubs supposedly assigned such a huge postseason win-share to Chapman that it somehow made him worth Torres in their view...and prompted the Yankees to sell both him and Miller.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
I was thinking that a package of Allard, Newcomb/Sims, Wisler/Blair, and Dustin Peterson would be the minimum to get it done. Realistically, they'd probably want two A+ prospects though, so we'd also have to include an Albies or Acuna in some form or fashion.
If that is the asking price, I'd steer clear of trading any of our A+ positional talent, as they're currently at a premium for our organization. I think you have to deal from a position of strength, and if they want two top prospects then you have to see if they'll take an Allard and Gohara/Soroka/Wright instead.
I honestly probably wouldn't do any of those, at least right now.
What did they say?
His prospect ranking is less than those guys. I think he is more valuable than Anderson, and close to as valuable as Allard. I think Soroka is clearly more valuable than both.
However, I can't very well pull data and then inject my own biases into it. That defeats the whole purpose of analyzing the data.
SJ24
New member
Too small and no out pitch. Also concerns about velocity.