Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

Enscheff said:
Crazy that you found an article where someone answered the exact question I asked haha. I was looking for more sustained success than 1 outlier season, but that list of names is informative. Here are the guys that appear on the list more than once (meaning sustained success with 2 pitches, * indicates more than twice):

Archer (we know he is a good comp)

Burnett

Kershaw

Jackson

Gio*

Kuroda*

Santana

Beckett

The question then becomes, are Newk's 2 pitches as good as those guys' 2 pitches? We can't compare all the pitches to each other easily, but we can compare FA velocity. Here are the average FA velocities of Archer, Gio and Kuroda over the 3 seasons they posted 3+ WAR as 2-pitch guys:

Archer: 95.0-95.9

Gio: 92.8-94.2

Kuroda: 92.1-93.1

Gio and Kuroda posted those average velocities back when the average MLB FA was more than 1 MPH slower than today, so we can mentally add 1 MPH to account for "velocity inflation".

Newcomb: 92.8

So Newk's FA is sitting a 1-2 ticks below the velocity those guys had on their FA to make being a 2-pitch guy work for an extended period of time. In other words, it doesn't appear his 2 pitches are good enough to sustain success by using only those 2 pitches.

It should also be noted those guys all used a 3rd pitch more than Newk currently does. They had a better FA than Newk AND they used a 3rd pitch more often to get these results.

I still think he needs to add a 3rd pitch, and I still think it needs to be a change. He probably only needs to get that change to about a 45 and use it ~10 times per game to be a truly effective SP over a decent stretch of time. It is certainly doable.

Oddly enough, I have seen Gio comps thrown around for Newk quite a bit. We should all be thrilled if that's what he ends up being.
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I don't delve that far into stats but what exactly is FA? I'm assuming that's his average fastball? Cause I show 93.7 as his average fastball on fangraphs.
 
Throwing from the left side like Gio helps

I don't see how it's a debate. He can be a solid MLB pitcher if this sss is really him. If he's going to be better than an avg 3 he's got to have a third pitch. You don't predict outliers. It's possible he's archer but you don't predict it
 
Yankees send down Andujar to call up Fowler, who injures himself(looked pretty bad) fielding a ball in foul territory. Had to be carted off after collapsing when trying to stand.
 
Haha, did the board braintrust really just start off the morning trying to blabber about position players being as risky as pitchers?

Tanks for the chuckle first thing in the morning! Derrrrrherrrrrp!
 
Enscheff said:
Haha, did the board braintrust really just start off the morning trying to blabber about position players being as risky as pitchers?

Tanks for the chuckle first thing in the morning! Derrrrrherrrrrp!
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miley-trying-too-hard.gif
 
jcc03004 said:
What's the consensus on the trade deadline what do you think will happen with the team?
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I'm expecting us to trade Garcia Phillips and Johnson. Wouldn't shock me if we bought someone like a prado ( good player and upgrade for us but overpaid so not expensive to buy).
 
Russ2dollas said:
I'm expecting us to trade Garcia Phillips and Johnson. Wouldn't shock me if we bought someone like a prado ( good player and upgrade for us but overpaid so not expensive to buy).
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Prado would provide a graceful way to throw in the towel on the Freddie at third experiment.
 
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