Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

Southcack77 said:
The two pitchers were both signed to long term under market deals. They absolutely could have kept them for a long time.

They chose to sell off extremely valuable assets rather than try to compete. It follows that they got back good prospects.

So good job breaking up a young core of cheaply signed major league assets in a somewhat efficient manner? Yay?
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Yeah, while Heyward and Upton had a year of control each, Sale and Eaton were signed to longer-term, team-friendly deals. Their return for Eaton isn't looking so good at the moment.
 
CJ9 said:
I keep looking at Derek Fisher with Houston as a guy that could make sense. He's probably a 50 FV (Longenhagen had him as a 45 FV preseason) now and close to the majors, but I like the idea of him and Acuna in the corners starting next year. Maybe get Garrett Stubbs or a pitcher to go along with him, and I'd be happy with it.
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That would be a bitter pill for the FO to swallow since they could of gotten more if they acted sooner but it's something I think needs to be done. Hopefully the Braves can find a way to move Nick and or Kemp to make room for some young corner guys.
 
Super said:
Yeah, while Heyward and Upton had a year of control each, Sale and Eaton were signed to longer-term, team-friendly deals. Their return for Eaton isn't looking so good at the moment.
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Nobody expected Sale or Eaton returns for Heyward and Upton. However I think it's right to criticize going quantity for quality in certain trades as well as attaching Melvin with Kimbrel to cripple that trade value.
 
I wonder if the Mets would part with Plawecki for cheap. He's hit well in the minors the last two years, plays strong defense, but has never gotten a real shot in the majors.
 
What would it take to get Castellanos from Detroit? Would he be a nice buy low target? Detroit needs pretty much everything to start over.
 
Enscheff said:
LOL, you really are bending over backwards to defend the Braves FO.
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No, you are bending over backwards to compliment the White Sox for blowing up a team and trading near elite young players with years of team control remaining for prospects.

Sale, Quintana, Eaton would all have been on the White Sox at excellent contracts through 2019. It's not a mystery why they would have been been able to get more for them than the Braves got for lesser players.

If you want to quibble about the various deals the Braves made, that's perfectly ok. But all the White Sox have done is sell off great assets for, in some cases, great prospects.

I don't give them a special prize for that any more than I give Coppy credit for being able to replenish a farm system by blowing a team up and doing everything in his power to get more assets. They've both managed to pull off one of the easier tasks in baseball. Building a farm system when you don't have to worry a great deal about the immediate major league record. I'm not that impressed by that though I do appreciate it as a valid strategy.
 
thewupk said:
The problem with Julio is getting a base line on what he's going to provide the rest of his contract. Buyers are going to see his 1.1 WAR season in 2015 and his negative war so far in 2017 and try to rightfully buy low. Hopefully the Braves would try to sell them on Julio being a 3 WAR player in 2016 and 2014 with 2015 being an injury season. And hopefully they could spin 2017 as Julio just being bad in the new park and point to his sub 3 ERA on the road.

Julio has actually been a 0.6 fWAR pitcher on the road this year in 57 innings. Based on that I wouldn't go any lower than a 2 WAR player as his baseline going forward. As a seller I would value Julio at 7 WAR over the remainder of his contract which is worth around 63 million in value. Julio is making 34 million on the remainder of his contract. So he would have a surplus value of around 29 million in this scenario. That should net a 55 FV player that is close to the majors.

The Braves really missed on trading him last year at the deadline. They could of sold him as a 3 WAR player with an additional year of control and that would be immensely more valuable.
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In that case (and assuming Coppy would sell and the organization would go completely young in 2018)...

1.) Julio and Vizcaino to Houston for Derek Fisher and Garrett Stubbs.

2.) Garcia and Adams to the Yankees for Andujar and Jorge Guzman.

3.) Dat Dude and Markakis to Kansas City for Seuly Matias and Kahlil Lee.

Sign a Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb type veteran on a shorter term deal to replace Julio in the rotation since they have injury histories, pick up Dickey's option, and promote everybody (other than maybe Acuna) to start 2018. Albies takes over at 2B, Andujar takes over at 3B, Fisher takes over in RF (and slides to LF when Acuna comes up).
 
Enscheff said:
We have shown time and time again that we can fairly accurately analyze trades using surplus value. We have a veryt good idea what the return for Teheran would have been.

How many times do those numbers have to prove correct for you to stop saying naive things like this?

The Braves didn't trade Julio because they valued him as a key piece to a 2017 contender. They were wrong. We said they were wrong at the time. We were right.
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As far as I know, I've never discussed surplus value with you or anyone else. You can pretend like you know what was offered if you like and more power to you. I do know that Teheran was actively shopped and that no deal was made.
 
Southcack77 said:
No, you are bending over backwards to compliment the White Sox for blowing up a team and trading near elite young players with years of team control remaining for prospects.

Sale, Quintana, Eaton would all have been on the White Sox at excellent contracts through 2019. It's not a mystery why they would have been been able to get more for them than the Braves got for lesser players.

If you want to quibble about the various deals the Braves made, that's perfectly ok. But all the White Sox have done is sell off great assets for, in some cases, great prospects.

I don't give them a special prize for that any more than I give Coppy credit for being able to replenish a farm system by blowing a team up and doing everything in his power to get more assets. They've both managed to pull off one of the easier tasks in baseball. Building a farm system when you don't have to worry a great deal about the immediate major league record. I'm not that impressed by that though I do appreciate it as a valid strategy.
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The Sox sold their asserts for maximum future value.

The Braves did not.

I'm not sure how anyone can logically suggest any differently.

I also don't see how anyone can claim the process the Sox used is anything other than superior to the process the Braves used.

Anyways, I look forward to your reply proving your unflinching support of the Braves FO.
 
Southcack77 said:
No. I don't. I don't think he would have brought back anything like the haul that you are referencing, because the deal wasn't made.
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LOL, we have proven we can value trades over and over, yet you still cling to this naivete on purpose. Is that really the only defense you can muster for the FO not trading Julio haha?
 
Enscheff said:
The Sox sold their asserts for maximum future value.

The Braves did not.

I'm not sure how anyone can logically suggest any differently.

I also don't see how anyone can claim the process the Sox used is anything other than superior to the process the Braves used.

Anyways, I look forward to your reply proving your unflinching support of the Braves FO.
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You never understand how anyone could possibly claim anything different from whatever it is you purport believe at a given instant, so it isn't that surprising.

I am certainly glad that the White Sox after deciding to raise a white flag got a reasonable return on their extremely valuable assets. I'm semi-erect thinking about it actually.
 
None of our assets were as valuable as Sale, IMO. But I think Jupton, Heyward, and Kimbrel were all better than Eaton or Quintana. The White Sox for sure got more high ceiling talent for Eaton and Q than we did for Jupton and Kimbrel. I don't see how that could be argued. Heyward turned into a high ceiling move when we traded Miller but honestly that was pretty lucky. I think we still have a better farm overall due to depth and we are finally getting top heavy. We actually got most of our talent through the draft and international market, not trades. But the shear speed the Sox have obtained their best prospects and current depth is quite staggering anyway you look at it. The only thing, IMO, they doesn't put them over is now is the regression of Giolito and Lopez.
 
thewupk said:
Is it clear? I think they tried to get a Miller type deal which wasn't going to happen. They were likely fair deals on the table.
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I always come back to a rival executive saying: I know what Coppy says, but I can get Teheran any time I want.

It comes back to no one actually thinking Teheran was anywhere near as good as his numbers. Braves fans didn't believe it and rival front offices didn't believe it. So every time we talk about their mistake in not trading him the comparison is made to some much better player who was traded for elite prospects. Two years ago, he wasn't very good coming off a 4 ERA/4.5 FIP type season. Selling high last year would have been great, but you have to get a high offer to sell high.

And the reality is he wasn't bringing back those elite prospects and the Braves have more use then and now for Teheran to be in their rotation than they do to have another starting pitcher prospect or another Dustin Peterson, Ruiz, Mallex Smith. It only made sense to trade him if you really liked the return. And I'm perfectly fine and happy that they made that decision.

Just like the White Sox are undoubtably happy they didn't sell Quintana earlier for less than they wanted to get back.
 
Southcack77 said:
You never understand how anyone could possibly claim anything different from whatever it is you purport believe at a given instant, so it isn't that surprising.

I am certainly glad that the White Sox after deciding to raise a white flag got a reasonable return on their extremely valuable assets. I'm semi-erect thinking about it actually.
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Lol and what's your claim? That the Braves couldn't have gotten a huge package for Julio 2 years ago?

Surplus value has been proven accurate on every major trade that has went down over the last few years except one. That one trade got Dave Stewart fired.

Yet you contend we don't know the kind of package Julio would have commanded? Your reasoning is that an actual deal never happened. Pure willing ignorance on your part. Simple as that.
 
zbhargrove said:
None of our assets were as valuable as Sale, IMO. But I think Jupton, Heyward, and Kimbrel were all better than Eaton or Quintana. The White Sox for sure got more high ceiling talent for Eaton and Q than we did for Jupton and Kimbrel. I don't see how that could be argued. Heyward turned into a high ceiling move when we traded Miller but honestly that was pretty lucky. I think we still have a better farm overall due to depth and we are finally getting top heavy. We actually got most of our talent through the draft and international market, not trades. But the shear speed the Sox have obtained their best prospects and current depth is quite staggering anyway you look at it. The only thing, IMO, they doesn't put them over is now is the regression of Giolito and Lopez.
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I mean they are all prospects. The Braves probably won't get that great a return out of all the depth. Bragging about the system by either team is probably overstating how great an accomplishment they've made.

I disagree with you about Heyward and Upton.

You are undoubtably correct that Kimbrell would have gotten a bigger return by himself. Probably not what you are thinking based on the deals made last trade deadline, but more sure.
 
Enscheff said:
Lol and what's your claim? That the Braves couldn't have gotten a huge package for Julio 2 years ago?

Surplus value has been proven accurate on every major trade that has went down over the last few years except one. That one trade got Dave Stewart fired.

Yet you contend we don't know the kind of package Julio would have commanded? Your reasoning is that an actual deal never happened. Pure willing ignorance on your part. Simple as that.
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Two years ago coming off a 4.40 FIP?
 
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