Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

PurpleBrave said:
Headley is a very mediocre baseball player. So much so that the Yankees just traded for the 3b version of Chris Carter to replace him.
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Mediocre is putting it lightly.

I'm not (and never have been) against "buying" prospects. The problem with adding someone like Headley is that it just continues kicking the can down the road. It's time to start finding out what some of these kids can do so a decision can be made whether or not to move on from them. Everyone here complains (rightfully so) when the brass and/or Fredi and now Snitker plays the guys with big contracts. The surest way to get them to stop doing that is to quit having them around.

If you ever want to know whether Ruiz might eventually be able to play, you have to do just that - play him. Don't give Snitker another option to put in front of him. If you think Andujar could be the long-term guy and you have Headley here to cover 3B in Atlanta next season, where in the *ell are you going to play Ruiz? I certainly don't think he's the answer, but you're sure as *ell not going to get anywhere platooning he and Andujar at 3B in Gwinnett in 2018. If the organization was willing to take the contract back and then instantly DFA Headley (or even do it this winter) so they could see what they've got in these other players, I'd be all for it. The problem is we all know they won't eat that money - look at how long they continued running Big Sexy out there.

Again, I'm more than fine with taking on a bad contract to get Andujar, but upping these "packages" of vets that everyone wants to make to obtain a better prospect has limits. You want me to take on Headley's contract AND give you Garcia or Dickey? I get Andujar. What's that? You want Adams too? OK - I'll be happy to do that AND take Warren's money off your hands. I want one of Tyler Austin, Florial, or Nick Solak.

I'm not asking for their top guys to not only fix their roster AND take care of their accounting problems - these are secondary guys. All the "number-crunchers" need to factor in that we're taking back that bad contract when they decide what FV level prospect we get in return. You want me to eat Headley's contract too? The level of prospect I want in return goes up.
 
clvclv said:
Mediocre is putting it lightly.

I'm not (and never have been) against "buying" prospects. The problem with adding someone like Headley is that it just continues kicking the can down the road. It's time to start finding out what some of these kids can do so a decision can be made whether or not to move on from them. Everyone here complains (rightfully so) when the brass and/or Fredi and now Snitker plays the guys with big contracts. The surest way to get them to stop doing that is to quit having them around.

If you ever want to know whether Ruiz might eventually be able to play, you have to do just that - play him. Don't give Snitker another option to put in front of him. If you think Andujar could be the long-term guy and you have Headley here to cover 3B in Atlanta next season, where in the *ell are you going to play Ruiz? I certainly don't think he's the answer, but you're sure as *ell not going to get anywhere platooning he and Andujar at 3B in Gwinnett in 2018. If the organization was willing to take the contract back and then instantly DFA Headley (or even do it this winter) so they could see what they've got in these other players, I'd be all for it. The problem is we all know they won't eat that money - look at how long they continued running Big Sexy out there.

Again, I'm more than fine with taking on a bad contract to get Andujar, but upping these "packages" of vets that everyone wants to make to obtain a better prospect has limits. You want me to take on Headley's contract AND give you Garcia or Dickey? I get Andujar. What's that? You want Adams too? OK - I'll be happy to do that AND take Warren's money off your hands. I want one of Tyler Austin, Florial, or Nick Solak.

I'm not asking for their top guys to not only fix their roster AND take care of their accounting problems - these are secondary guys. All the "number-crunchers" need to factor in that we're taking back that bad contract when they decide what FV level prospect we get in return. You want me to eat Headley's contract too? The level of prospect I want in return goes up.
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No one says that you have to ultimately keep Headley. Let's say the Braves get him and Andujar. Andujar goes to AAA or AA whichever seems best at the time. Headley comes over and plays decently well, according to his historic ability. For the sake of argument, let's say he plays on an annualized 2 WAR basis for the rest of 2017. The Braves could then offer him around in the offseason, maybe even eating some of the contract to get a better return when he's traded (won't be much but better than nothing) - let's say the Braves trade him to ...the Mets for the equivalence of Akeel Morris, a relief pitcher two to three years away, and they have to eat $3M of the salary. Then you give Ruiz the first couple of months in the ML to see what you have giving you time to play Andujar at AAA for at least the first few months of 2018 thereby saving his clock. OR you let Headley and Ruiz compete for the job in ST and let one start while the other is on the bench, all while Andujar is at AAA.

Or you can spend $25M per year on Moustakas or $15M per year on Frazier as FA in the offseason.
 
Enscheff said:
In this case yes, because Doolittle will likely be injured and won't pitch much.

Or how about one based around what I said about Khanle?

He is currently posting a 1.6 xFIP. His career mark is 3.6. Splitting the difference is 2.6, so that will be the over/under.

How about a bet where I say Kahnle is closer to 3.6, meaning 2.6+, and you say he is closer to 1.6, meaning under 1.6? What do you want the time frame to be? End of 2018 again?

Let me guess, more backpedaling from you...
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This would be stupid. It would be a bet that Kahnle would be one of the best 10 relievers in baseball. Who has said he is? How about:

Kahnle ~3.0 xFIP

Treinen vs. Doolittle lower xFIP
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Or you can spend $25M per year on Moustakas or $15M per year on Frazier as FA in the offseason.
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For me this is the key. We have to avoid paying 30something players market rates on contracts running 4 or more years. That should be the #1 commandment on the front office's "thou shalt not" list.
 
gilesfan said:
This would be stupid. It would be a bet that Kahnle would be one of the best 10 relievers in baseball. Who has said he is? How about:

Kahnle ~3.0 xFIP

Treinen vs. Doolittle lower xFIP
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I already explained Doolittle is likely to get hurt, so a rate stat bet makes no sense unless an innings total is also included. Treinen better xFIP than Doolittle, and Doolittle pitches 60+ innings next year.

That Kahnle xFIP is silly. A 3 xFIP is not elite.

Over/under 2.6 xFIP and 60+ innings next year is the bet. You claim he is elite. Is he elite, or is he not elite?

Don't backpedal now...were are almost there!
 
nsacpi said:
For me this is the key. We have to avoid paying 30something players market rates on contracts running 4 or more years. That should be the #1 commandment on the front office's "thou shalt not" list.
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exactly. And the method behind my madness.

If you want to take a flyer on a Terry Pendelton or Mark Liebrandt type guy as filler for short term holes then fine, do so. You might even get lucky and get a MVP type season out of one (even if Bonds was more deserving). But, unless you are going to break down and add a FoF type player to sell tickets like a Harper, Machado, etc. then signing 30 YO veterans who will be paid for past performance is less than optimal.
 
Enscheff said:
I already explained Doolittle is likely to get hurt, so a rate stat bet makes no sense unless an innings total is also included. Treinen better xFIP than Doolittle, and Doolittle pitches 60+ innings next year.

That Kahnle xFIP is silly. A 3 xFIP is not elite.

Over/under 2.6 xFIP and 60+ innings next year is the bet. You claim he is elite. Is he elite, or is he not elite?

Don't backpedal now...were are almost there!
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Can you go back and show where I said he was elite or is your comprehension failing again? A 3 xFIP is top 20 for qualified relievers; call it whatever you would like to call it. Now Kahnle has to throw 60 innings!

Good grief, you put so many qualifiers in your "bet." I should not be wasting my time with this or you. Just sit back and laugh.
 
gilesfan said:
Can you go back and show where I said he was elite or is your comprehension failing again? A 3 xFIP is top 20 for qualified relievers; call it whatever you would like to call it. Now Kahnle has to throw 60 innings!

Good grief, you put so many qualifiers in your "bet." I should not be wasting my time with this or you. Just sit back and laugh.
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LOL so your hot take is that Kahnle improved from 3.6 to 3.0? Wow! That's an amazing revelation!

Allow me to rehash our exchange for you:

I said, "A lot of folks are over rating Kahnle. They seem to weigh the 30 amazing innings this year more heavily than the 120 mediocre innings he posted before that."

You quoted me and disagreed by saying, "Kahnle has always had talent, but the White Sox identified a flaw in his mechanics allowing him to throw more strikes as well as helping him with his change up that has been lights out".

That is you directly contradicting my statement that he is not as elite as his work this season would indicate. Further, it implies you think the improvements are real, and will carry into the future.

If you don't think he is elite, then why did you bother to attempt to contradict me?

So I ask you, is he elite or not? If he isn't elite, why did you feel the need to argue with me?
 
PurpleBrave said:
Agree with what you said about our pieces not being elite, but the SP market is very weak right now. The Giants pitchers are expensive and/or are a mess. Padres have Clayton Richard. Tigers would ship Verlander at a price nobody will be wanting to pay. Sonny Gray. Who else? Not a whole lot out there. The Rangers don't know what they are doing. It's basically Gray and a bunch of below average pitchers.

If there was ever a time to trade Garcia or Dickey, it's now. Won't ever get a higher return for them.
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The SP market is not that weak. Here is a good break down of the available rental arms:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/mlbtr-poll-best-rental-starter.html
 
When the market is headlined by Francisco liriano and Trevor Cahill, its weak. Marco Estrada would be alright but he's been a mess the past 2 months
 
PurpleBrave said:
When the market is headlined by Francisco liriano and Trevor Cahill, its weak. Marco Estrada would be alright but he's been a mess the past 2 months
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Of all the guys on the list, Estrada is one who could really flourish in a two-month stint. He gets it going and he's tough. All the others are hit-or-miss.
 
PurpleBrave said:
When the market is headlined by Francisco liriano and Trevor Cahill, its weak. Marco Estrada would be alright but he's been a mess the past 2 months
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Compared to Jaime Garcia, its pretty strong. You were claiming Garcias value was high because they aren't any better options....there are plenty of better options.
 
Enscheff said:
Compared to Jaime Garcia, its pretty strong. You were claiming Garcias value was high because they aren't any better options....there are plenty of better options.
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It would all depend on acquisition costs, but of the guys on that list, I would put Garcia third behind Estrada (1) and Hellickson (2) in terms of potential usefulness for a contender down the stretch. Sure, Liriano could be lightning in a bottle for a couple of months (and maybe he is a guy who simply loses focus when playing for a bad team), but he's been terrible this year.

We're talking about a set of 5th starters, so the return on any of these guys will be minimal. The team that is most satisfied obtaining a marginal prospect will be the team that unloads one of the guys on the list.
 
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