Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

Enscheff said:
Right, and the Braves already made the decision about allowing Duvall to go through arbitration last year when they non-tendered him. Probably due to the fact arb overvalues counting stats like RBI.

Are folks forgetting these facts already? Have they seriously allowed themselves to be fooled into thinking Duvall is a different player now? Do folks really think he has magically added underlying skills to make him a more viable CFer just because he spent some time there?

Where is this idea coming from that Duvall is more valuable now than he was exactly 1 year ago?
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I'm just wondering if he showed enough in CF that coupling him with a speedy right fielder and advanced shifting makes his viable as a one year band aid for CF.
 
Enscheff said:
Right, and the Braves already made the decision about allowing Duvall to go through arbitration last year when they non-tendered him. Probably due to the fact arb overvalues counting stats like RBI.

Are folks forgetting these facts already? Have they seriously allowed themselves to be fooled into thinking Duvall is a different player now? Do folks really think he has magically added underlying skills to make him a more viable CFer just because he spent some time there?

Where is this idea coming from that Duvall is more valuable now than he was exactly 1 year ago?
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The only thing I see is that he's shown he can play a somewhat passable CF for a short stretch. That should add a little bit of value.

How much/how long would you feel comfortable giving him?
 
Southcack77 said:
I think it's odd to have a buyout for a player declined option, but if you know that for sure I'll take your word for it.

The Marlins got him for either 1/5m or 2/9m.

It's a little hard to believe he will do much better than that. He was what he was and nobody really wanted him. I do not think the end of season really would help much.

Figuring out the market for his making more is sorta tough.

If he's actually going to make 9m in Arb he'll be non-tendered.
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Here's the story from when Duvall signed with the Marlins last off-season. It's an odd contract. Paid $2 million for 2021 with $3 million buy-out that would provide guaranteed $5 million. Link: https://www.fishstripes.com/2021/2/9/22275082/mlb-free-agency-news-marlins-adam-duvall

He thinks he can do better than $7 million (the second year of the initial deal he signed with the Marlins) in arbitration. MLBtraderumors says $9 million. A lot will depend on what he would ask for in arbitration to try to score more than $7 million. He comes in with outrageous offer and Braves low-ball, he could end up with less than $7 million.
 
I think Freeman will be brought back. Even if AA thinks the contract wont be worth the production I still think he brings Freeman back. That's because it's more than just a decision about on field production. I'm not talking about leadership or clubhouse presence or anything like that. I'm talking about marketing. Freeman is probably the most beloved Braves player on the team. The last thing the Braves business side wants to do is upset fans that are euphoric from the WS win.

Honestly, bringing Freeman back might not even be AA's decision. It could be Terry McGurick's insists it happen.
 
Until Braves don’t figure out contract with Freeman I really doubt they start adding. If they move from Freeman hopefully they start talking with some of the young guys.
 
50PoundHead said:
Here's the story from when Duvall signed with the Marlins last off-season. It's an odd contract. Paid $2 million for 2021 with $3 million buy-out that would provide guaranteed $5 million. Link: https://www.fishstripes.com/2021/2/9/22275082/mlb-free-agency-news-marlins-adam-duvall

He thinks he can do better than $7 million (the second year of the initial deal he signed with the Marlins) in arbitration. MLBtraderumors says $9 million. A lot will depend on what he would ask for in arbitration to try to score more than $7 million. He comes in with outrageous offer and Braves low-ball, he could end up with less than $7 million.
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I think the buyout was just a creative way for the Marlins to pay very little (with the idea of moving him at the deadline) while Duvall still got a decent salary bump from 2020. His salary was essentially 5 million for 2021 after he was signed for 3.25 million in 2020. So basically he thinks he can do better than 4 million in arbitration/free agency. He's likely right.
 
Enscheff said:
I have the Braves at $100M-$110M depending on who they cut loose (I have them letting Camargo, Arcia, and RiRod go). I also have $17M for Ozuna on the books, but some or all of that salary might be freed up.

Assuming a $150M-$160M opening day payroll, that results in around $50M plus whatever they save from Ozuna. Any cash saved from Ozuna's suspension will have to be used to fill those DH PAs anyways, so that chunk of cash will be roughly a wash.

They have to fill 1B, 2 OF slots, 1 SP, and probably an impact RHP in the BP. At least 2 of those bats must be impact quality.

This is why handing Freeman upwards of $30M is going to be hard, as that leaves only $20M to fix the OF, add a couple arms, and fill the bench.
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That’s why I think Bryan Reynolds should be a main target. He’s controlled till 2026 and he’s arb eligible starting in 2023. He’ll cost a lot in prospects but with most of our team set he’d fall right in line with the contention window. They’ll pay FF around 27 per to keep him in Atl imo. Soler should be able to fit in there price wise too in that scenario. Not sure if they view Strider as a starter or reliever but he has shut down potential to if they keep him in the bullpen.
 
Hudson2 said:
That’s why I think Bryan Reynolds should be a main target. He’s controlled till 2026 and he’s arb eligible starting in 2023. He’ll cost a lot in prospects but with most of our team set he’d fall right in line with the contention window. They’ll pay FF around 27 per to keep him in Atl imo. Soler should be able to fit in there price wise too in that scenario. Not sure if they view Strider as a starter or reliever but he has shut down potential to if they keep him in the bullpen.
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Why should we give up Grissom/Strider/Wright/etc... for Reynolds when we can just sign Soler/Freeman/bench bat?

We need to keep a cycle of prospects to supplement when Acuna/Fried/Anderson/Riley get expensive.
 
striker42 said:
I think Freeman will be brought back. Even if AA thinks the contract wont be worth the production I still think he brings Freeman back. That's because it's more than just a decision about on field production. I'm not talking about leadership or clubhouse presence or anything like that. I'm talking about marketing. Freeman is probably the most beloved Braves player on the team. The last thing the Braves business side wants to do is upset fans that are euphoric from the WS win.

Honestly, bringing Freeman back might not even be AA's decision. It could be Terry McGurick's insists it happen.
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Especially if they are marketing the team to sell it.
 
thethe said:
Why should we give up Grissom/Strider/Wright/etc... for Reynolds when we can just sign Soler/Freeman/bench bat?
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Because none of those guys you mentioned signing can play centerfield and Reynolds just put up a 5.5 fWAR season there.
 
Enscheff said:
Right, and the Braves already made the decision about allowing Duvall to go through arbitration last year when they non-tendered him. Probably due to the fact arb overvalues counting stats like RBI.

Are folks forgetting these facts already? Have they seriously allowed themselves to be fooled into thinking Duvall is a different player now? Do folks really think he has magically added underlying skills to make him a more viable CFer just because he spent some time there?

Where is this idea coming from that Duvall is more valuable now than he was exactly 1 year ago?
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You know I'm not much of a Duvall guy, but I would counter that while his "true" value is pretty much the same, we have to remember that value is relative in the eyes of many. When his side says he's a CF in arbitration and he's compared against other CFs, that--and the illusion provided by counting stats--could matter to an arbitrator that doesn't understand deeper analysis.
 
CJ9 said:
Because none of those guys you mentioned signing can play centerfield and Reynolds just put up a 5.5 fWAR season there.
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If you have Rosario/Acuna at the corners and Soler at DH then Pache can be our centerfielder all year.

Keep the pipeline churning.
 
thethe said:
Why should we give up Grissom/Strider/Wright/etc... for Reynolds when we can just sign Soler/Freeman/bench bat?

We need to keep a cycle of prospects to supplement when Acuna/Fried/Anderson/Riley get expensive.
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We don’t know what it would cost but Reynolds is young and hits for power and average and is a LHH CF’er which checks a lot of boxes for us. Don’t let Wright’s performance the other night trick you in any way. He would need a full year to show he’s turned the corner. Some combination of Pache, Waters, Wright, Touki, Contreras, Muller would probably gets you pretty close.
 
Hudson2 said:
We don’t know what it would cost but Reynolds is young and hits for power and average and is a LHH CF’er which checks a lot of boxes for us. Don’t let Wright’s performance the other night trick you in any way. He would need a full year to show he’s turned the corner. Some combination of Pache, Waters, Wright, Touki, Contreras, Muller would probably gets you pretty close.
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Right, the Grissom/Strider/Wright package he threw out doesn't get you close to Reynolds.
 
Hudson2 said:
We don’t know what it would cost but Reynolds is young and hits for power and average and is a LHH CF’er which checks a lot of boxes for us. Don’t let Wright’s performance the other night trick you in any way. He would need a full year to show he’s turned the corner. Some combination of Pache, Waters, Wright, Touki, Contreras, Muller would probably gets you pretty close.
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Thats a poo poo platter for a guy like Reynolds IMO.

The deal starts with Strider and Grissom.
 
CJ9 said:
Right, the Grissom/Strider/Wright package he threw out doesn't get you close to Reynolds.
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I agree with this - I put the 'etc' to show that this is just the starting point.

We would have to GUT an already mid tier system to get this guy when there is a viable CF option internally and excess cash to fill out LF/DH.
 
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