Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[Carp]

Its not the same thing but Fried was put in the pen and now he may be one of the top 5-10 pitchers in baseball.

Strider has already shown that minor leaguers are of no consequence to him. He needs to be facing major league hitters.

Fried spent almost the entire 2017 season at AA as a starter before making his debut in ATL late in the year.

 

[Carp]

Has anyone actually looked at the year Greinke had last season?

4.16 ERA in the AL with 170 innings pitched. 103 ERA+ 1.3 fWAR. Pretty much the definition of an average/sightly above average major league pitcher. I don't see what there isn't too like as someone expected to be our number 4 pitcher.

 

[Carp]

1. What's happened to Morton that would have him out at the beginning of the year? A 6-8 week recovery, right? If he's fully functional by Christmas, one would think he'd be available for Spring Training in February.

2. Morton, Fried and Anderson are a suitable big three for a playoff run. The last two spots in the rotation don't need to be filled by higher priced vets that can give a 4+ ERA and eat innings (the Braves got a 4.48 out of Smyly for $11 Million). Ynoa, Toussaint and Mueller gave the Braves similar results for peanuts. Moreover, in order to keep their window open as long as possible, the Braves need to find a way to replace Morton with an internal option at the end of this year. That allows them to spread his $20 million around on raises. From a talent perspective, I understand the best options to currently be a 4 man race between Soroka, Wright, Ynoa and Mueller. The Braves have to give these guys starts in ATL to see if they have a future in ATL. Putting money into a vet arm, would indicate they've already decided they don't. If that's the case, that's really disappointing.

1. It's a fracture that he had surgery for. There will be some rehab time for him. It's entirely possible he'll be available for ST. But it also can't be assumed. We've seen too many cases where a player spent the off-season recovering from some serious injury and it spilled over into the regular season.

2. You are assuming Morton, Anderson, and Fried make it through the season unscathed. Ynoa, Touki, and Muller haven't exactly shown they are major league mainstays. So assuming they will offer similar results for peanuts is foolhardy. Our pitching situation is currently about the same as last off-season. We had Soroka, Anderson, and Fried as the only 3 reliable starters and a plethora of major league ready arms. Despite that AA went out and acquired Smyly and Morton. Now, we have Morton, Fried, and Anderson as the the only reliable starters, but Soroka as a possibility at some point in the season. I suspect AA's stance on the rotation has changed significantly.

 

[Carp]

This is an unhinged, thethe-level thought, but would anyone trade Ozuna for Donaldson, and slot him as the DH?

He makes $50m over the next two seasons, could mostly DH to keep him healthy, but would give you flexibility at 3B and 1B (versus Ozuna, who is pretty much just a DH who can stand in LF). Meanwhile, Ozuna is set to earn $49m over the next three seasons, so the Twins could spread out the annual commitment, and moreover probably save a solid chunk in 2022, since Ozuna is likely to serve a healthy suspension.

So the Braves pay off the Ozuna commitment sooner, in the form of Donaldson, and get a player they can actually feel comfortable keeping on the roster. The Twins spread out what they owe to Donaldson, and probably end up saving a bit in 2022, as well. Off-the-wall, but something that struck me yesterday, seeing that the Twins are already looking to get out from under Donaldson's contract. And a bad-contract-for-Ozuna trade is probably the only way the Braves can jettison him without just eating what they owe and releasing him.

I'd do it.

 

[OcalaBrave]

1. It's a fracture that he had surgery for. There will be some rehab time for him. It's entirely possible he'll be available for ST. But it also can't be assumed. We've seen too many cases where a player spent the off-season recovering from some serious injury and it spilled over into the regular season.

2. You are assuming Morton, Anderson, and Fried make it through the season unscathed. Ynoa, Touki, and Muller haven't exactly shown they are major league mainstays. So assuming they will offer similar results for peanuts is foolhardy. Our pitching situation is currently about the same as last off-season. We had Soroka, Anderson, and Fried as the only 3 reliable starters and a plethora of major league ready arms. Despite that AA went out and acquired Smyly and Morton. Now, we have Morton, Fried, and Anderson as the the only reliable starters, but Soroka as a possibility at some point in the season. I suspect AA's stance on the rotation has changed significantly.

Last year Soroka was coming off injury. We had Fried and a relatively untested Anderson who'd had late season success. Morton, Fried & Anderson, even with Morton's broken leg is way more dependable.

Ynoa, Touki and Mueller duplicated Smyly's results in smaller sample size last year. I like their odds of doing it again. If Ynoa didn't punch the wall we might be talking about the big 4.

If one of Morton, Fried or Anderson misses significant time. A Smyly isn't going to cover that loss. If a prospect doesn't step up, we'd be buying at the deadline.

 

[50PoundHead]

Fried spent almost the entire 2017 season at AA as a starter before making his debut in ATL late in the year.

Fried pitched a total of 420 minor league innings. 195 in the first two seasons after he recoverd from major arm surgery. Strider has pitched basically half of that since his surgery and less than a fourth of Fried's total minor league innings. The argument can be made that Fried was a high school guy and as such will obviously have more minor league innings, but Strider pitched 63 innings at Clemson into two seasons sandwiched around his lost year due to arm surgery. It should also be pointed out that Fried spent more of 2018 in the minors than the majors after making his brief major league debut in 2017.

I want to make it clear that I'm not ripping on Strider. Most everything he did in 2021 points to a promising future, but baseball isn't easy. We will likely see him with the big club for portions of the 2022 season, but I don't want to see him doing his OJT at the big league level. That's not good for anybody.

 

[Heyward]

More i think about it, yeah we do kinda need a proven #4 starter. Just because who the hell knows what Soroka is going to do this season. Even if he comes back, they'll probably take it slow with him off back to back Achillies injuries. We do have alot of names, but it's risky as hell to rely on that. Getting a veteran who can eat innings on a reasonable 1 year deal sounds good. Who that is, is up to AA and his staff if thats something they want to do of course.

 

[thethe]

Fried spent almost the entire 2017 season at AA as a starter before making his debut in ATL late in the year.

Very possible in misremembering but didn’t fried gave blister issues that year? I think he would have been called up much sooner.

Either way it’s still more experience than strider has so I get your point.

We can cobble together the 4-5 starters just fine for three months either way. Zero need to spend money there when we need offense.

 

[Heyward]

Very possible in misremembering but didn’t fried gave blister issues that year? I think he would have been called up much sooner.

Either way it’s still more experience than strider has so I get your point.

We can cobble together the 4-5 starters just fine for three months either way. Zero need to spend money there when we need offense.

That will depend on two things. What's OD payroll, and how much is Freeman's extension/first year cap number gonna be? If it's like 160 OD, we could afford a 4th SP on a 1 yr/10 mil deal or so.

 

[thethe]

I’d just rather spend that money on the bullpen.

There is a strong chance that a fully healthy soroka is our fourth starter by July.

I’d hate it if our bullpen is leaky while we have a glut of starting pitching.

 

[Heyward]

I’d just rather spend that money on the bullpen.

There is a strong chance that a fully healthy soroka is our fourth starter by July.

I’d hate it if our bullpen is leaky while we have a glut of starting pitching.

At a bare minimum we have Minter, Jackson, Smith and Matzek back for next season in the pen. That's a good start. We probably need another high leverage RH out of the pen though, there's some good options in free agency. Graveman, Yimi Garcia, Knebel, Archie Bradley, Melancon, Joe Kelly, Kirby Yates, Daniel Hudson. I dont think even with a SP addition, that would eliminate getting a high leverage BP arm. But that also depends what happens with the outfield situation/DH.

 

[thethe]

At a bare minimum we have Minter, Jackson, Smith and Matzek back for next season in the pen. That's a good start. We probably need another high leverage RH out of the pen though, there's some good options in free agency. Graveman, Yimi Garcia, Knebel, Archie Bradley, Melancon, Joe Kelly, Kirby Yates, Daniel Hudson. I dont think even with a SP addition, that would eliminate getting a high leverage BP arm. But that also depends what happens with the outfield situation/DH.

1B/LF/DH is going to cost somewhere around 50-60 per year.

Add 6-10 for a bullpen arm that we will end up needing and I think that is basically the chunk of what AA would want to spend prior to the start of the season.

It'll be important to keep 5-15 in dry powder to address weaknesses at the deadline.

 

[50PoundHead]

At a bare minimum we have Minter, Jackson, Smith and Matzek back for next season in the pen. That's a good start. We probably need another high leverage RH out of the pen though, there's some good options in free agency. Graveman, Yimi Garcia, Knebel, Archie Bradley, Melancon, Joe Kelly, Kirby Yates, Daniel Hudson. I dont think even with a SP addition, that would eliminate getting a high leverage BP arm. But that also depends what happens with the outfield situation/DH.

I think that was supposed to be Rodriguez, but for some reason (perhaps the penchance for giving up the long ball since arriving from Pittsburgh) his usage pattern changed dramatically making me wonder what his future with the club is. Does anyone know about Martin? He had an odd contract when he came back from overseas that made him a free agent without six years of service and I see on Baseball Reference that he is still under our control but eligible for arbitration. Can anyone clear that up for me?

Bottom line, I agree that we need another RH relief pitcher that can be trusted in high leverage situations.

 

[thethe]

I think that was supposed to be Rodriguez, but for some reason (perhaps the penchance for giving up the long ball since arriving from Pittsburgh) his usage pattern changed dramatically making me wonder what his future with the club is. Does anyone know about Martin? He had an odd contract when he came back from overseas that made him a free agent without six years of service and I see on Baseball Reference that he is still under our control but eligible for arbitration. Can anyone clear that up for me?

Bottom line, I agree that we need another RH relief pitcher that can be trusted in high leverage situations.

I think its been concluded that both Martin/Rodriguez were just benefitting from the sticky stuff.

I doubt either have been even considered moving forward by AA and will probably be available for close to 1-2M if anyone wants them.

 

[Heyward]

1B/LF/DH is going to cost somewhere around 50-60 per year.

Add 6-10 for a bullpen arm that we will end up needing and I think that is basically the chunk of what AA would want to spend prior to the start of the season.

It'll be important to keep 5-15 in dry powder to address weaknesses at the deadline.

It would be nice if MLB gave us some relief on the Ozuna contract, that's really hurting us right now.

 

[50PoundHead]

I think its been concluded that both Martin/Rodriguez were just benefitting from the sticky stuff.

I doubt either have been even considered moving forward by AA and will probably be available for close to 1-2M if anyone wants them.

Non-tendering both (or just letting Martin go depending on what his contract status is) would net approximately between $8 MM and $10 MM. Depending on how the rest of the financial commitments shake out, one would think a solid RH relief pitcher could be obtained within that framework.

 

[clvclv]

DOB just guessed six years, $165-175m for Freddie. We’re kind of in a spot now where you can’t let him go elsewhere, but getting near $30 million definitely concerns me. Would hope we could at least front load it if the deal is going to be around that.

We're not likely going to know for sure where the blame actually lies until AA eventually writes his memoirs and finally says it publicly, but I think it's now fair to describe the entire Freeman situation as "completely botched" - even if he re-signs AND the contract doesn't become an albatross at some point in the future.

All the dancing around and haggling over Freddie signing a team-friendly deal has likely cost the organization $30-$40 million at the very least, and potentially more. He's a perfect fit with the Dodgers (Turner moving to SS, Muncy moving to DH and Lux taking over at 2B), and they just got Kershaw, Jansen, Scherzer, and potentially Bauer off their books. He's a perfect fit with the Yankees , and non-tendering or trading Gallo and Voit would cover half of said $30 million. He's a perfect fit in Boston, and if Martinez opts out and they don't chase Schwarber that covers the full $30 million. As crazy as it sounds to have 3 guys making over $30 million per, he's a perfect fit in Anaheim - and they'd still have roughly $60 million left to spend on pitching and still be under this year's luxury threshold. He's a perfect fit in San Francisco, and there's no doubt they're going on a spending spree this winter. He's a perfect fit in Seattle, and they've got a *hit-ton of money to spend and a lot of young, inexpensive talent to surround him with for the next 5-6 years.

Whether it was an ownership-level decision that Alex wasn't allowed to make on his own or one where he chose to follow the numbers no matter the cost, dicking around with this has cost them a ton of money at the very least - and it legitimately has a chance to completely dampen fan (and team) enthusiasm no matter what is done in the event he leaves, even if it turns out to be successful in the long run.

Quote the numbers all you'd like, giving him the Goldy deal plus $1 million per 6 months ago looks like an absolute steal - and with the hindsight that comes with knowing you'd have extra resources to devote to it following a deep postseason run, it might have turned into an absolute bargain.

 

[Enscheff]

Just to be clear…

The resident know-nothing is maintaining the position that it’s easier to cobble together 40% of a rotation than it is to cobble together 20% of a BP.

Think about how misinformed someone must be about resource management and roster construction to hold such an opinion.

AA needs to grab a 4th SP. If history is any indication, he will do exactly that.

 

[thethe]

I’ve said that that should be the last resource allocation based on internal options under control.

Just piggy back the 4-6 (Muller/Davidson/Wright/Touki/Elder/Strider) guys for the fifth starter spot. Ynoa was clearly still impacted by his injuries but he at least showed that he deserves to get another month or two in the starting rotation to see if any of what he did pre injury was real. By that time soroka in all likelihood is ready.

If at the end of the offseason there guys like Wood/Cueto/Duffy in the 4-8 range then sure by all means get that guy.

 

[clvclv]

I’ve said that that should be the last resource allocation based on internal options under control.

Just piggy back the 4-6 (Muller/Davidson/Wright/Touki/Elder/Strider) guys for the fifth starter spot. Ynoa was clearly still impacted by his injuries but he at least showed that he deserves to get another month or two in the starting rotation to see if any of what he did pre injury was real. By that time soroka in all likelihood is ready.

If at the end of the offseason there guys like Wood/Cueto/Duffy in the 4-8 range then sure by all means get that guy.

Those words simply don't fit in the same sentence anymore, sorry.