Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

Southcack77 said:
If you were doing this, you'd still be a little light in pitching.

There is questionable value in being the favorite though.
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There's "questionable value" EVERYWHERE - if Reynolds doesn't hit like he did in 2020, you "wasted" the prospects you traded for him.

At some point you simply have to make your best guess if you're AA and commit to it. The numbers say that extending Freeman and adding Reynolds and another SP gives you a really good chance to hang at least one more flag in the next 2-3 years.

Alex and his people have to decide how likely it is that that works out. That's their job, and it's an unenviable position to have to be in - they're going to br the ones to get the credit (or the blame) for how this all shakes out.

That really sucks, but in this day and age where people with absolutely no background in building a successful professional sports organization than the people that actually have to do it have as many Facebook/Twitter followers, we are where we are. It continues to amaze me daily that there are as many people on this planet that didn't pass high school science or math classes get involved in discussions about this type of subject and then criticize folks with Ivy League educations when they can't even operate the calculator on their cell phone.
 
50PoundHead said:
Plus, given the uncertainty surrounding inflation (not that it means a whole lot to guys making this kind of money), front-loading is good for the player as well.
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I still think the math - and how they work it out in the end - is relatively inconsequential.

If you think you can hang another flag or two in the next five years, you pay him his money while thrilling the fans with no regrets however it works out. If you don't think there's a pretty good chance that happens, you operate as a business and try to get back to the position you're currently in as soon as possible.

I wouldn't want to be the one trying to explain his decision - no matter what that decision eventually turns out to be - and promise I'll criticize or be thrilled with it at some point whatever that decision is.
 
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Hudson2 said:
Olson is controllable for 2 more years so that would give you 2 years to find a longer term cheaper solution at 1b. TDA should be replaced by Langeliers next year and that will save money with another cheap option also.
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That’s the way to view the benefits of flexibility, and why that flexibility may extend the window.

Maybe Riley blows out his arm and has to move to 1B. Maybe some other 1B can be had on a 1 year deal after Olson leaves. Maybe the Braves draft a bat who turns into a stud 4 years from now.

All those options go away if the Braves shackle themselves to Freeman for 6+ years.
 
Enscheff said:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mauryb...financial-details-give-clues/?sh=57ea37103fc5

Braves made $30M in profit on $234M in revenue in Q3 alone. This article compares these numbers to 2020 numbers, which isn’t very helpful to us when trying to figure out what payroll may be from 2022 onwards.

Does anyone know how that $234M figure compares to Q3 2019?
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https://ir.libertymedia.com/financial-information/sec-filings?form_type=10-Q&year=2019

212/45 (their KPI for profit)
 
Enscheff said:
That’s the way to view the benefits of flexibility, and why that flexibility may extend the window.

Maybe Riley blows out his arm and has to move to 1B. Maybe some other 1B can be had on a 1 year deal after Olson leaves. Maybe the Braves draft a bat who turns into a stud 4 years from now.

All those options go away if the Braves shackle themselves to Freeman for 6+ years.
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I agree. I love Freeman but that 6th can change a lot of things for us in a negative way. Maybe tack 2 option years on with a 10 million dollar buyout in each option. So that would basically just be giving him 10 million in year 6 to retire.
 
Someone should add up all the likely salaries for Riley, Anderson, Ozuna, Acuna, Albies, and Freeman at $30M in the year 2024.

Once we have that number, someone should then propose how to fill out the rest of the roster with the remaining funds. Keep in mind the farm system is currently ranked in the bottom 5, so cheap impact talent is almost non existent
 
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Enscheff said:
Someone should add up all the likely salaries for Riley, Anderson, Ozuna, Acuna, Albies, and Freeman at $30M in the year 2024.

Once we have that number, someone should then propose how to fill out the rest of the roster with the remaining funds. Keep in mind the farm system is currently ranked in the bottom 5, so cheap impact talent is almost non existent
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I’ve seen middle-of-the-pack to around No. 20, not bottom five. Maybe I missed updated rankings?
 
clvclv said:
There's "questionable value" EVERYWHERE - if Reynolds doesn't hit like he did in 2020, you "wasted" the prospects you traded for him.

At some point you simply have to make your best guess if you're AA and commit to it. The numbers say that extending Freeman and adding Reynolds and another SP gives you a really good chance to hang at least one more flag in the next 2-3 years.

Alex and his people have to decide how likely it is that that works out. That's their job, and it's an unenviable position to have to be in - they're going to br the ones to get the credit (or the blame) for how this all shakes out.

That really sucks, but in this day and age where people with absolutely no background in building a successful professional sports organization than the people that actually have to do it have as many Facebook/Twitter followers, we are where we are. It continues to amaze me daily that there are as many people on this planet that didn't pass high school science or math classes get involved in discussions about this type of subject and then criticize folks with Ivy League educations when they can't even operate the calculator on their cell phone.
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So do the opposite of what got you the first flag then?

The Braves depth has let them survive pitching disasters three years in a row.

Their payroll flexibility has let them plug major holes 2 of last 3 seasons.

I'm not even saying don't sign Freddie or don't trade for Reynolds. But pushing everything in the middle doesn't even really give you a better chance of winning. The best teams rarely win and quite often it's one of the worst teams in the playoffs that gets hot.

With that in mind, why would you focus on building the best team in May other than you're Preller and line people taking about you?
 
Enscheff said:
That’s fine, but I doubt they will budget around the assumption the team will make a title run every year. They have to plan payroll around projected sustained revenues.
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And odds are they'll sell more season tickets coming off WS than coming off Covid.

Atlanta will get tired of them again eventually,l as Atlanta fans do, but probably not next year.
 
Enscheff said:
Someone should add up all the likely salaries for Riley, Anderson, Ozuna, Acuna, Albies, and Freeman at $30M in the year 2024.

Once we have that number, someone should then propose how to fill out the rest of the roster with the remaining funds. Keep in mind the farm system is currently ranked in the bottom 5, so cheap impact talent is almost non existent
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I have those 6 players taking up roughly $90M in payroll in 2024. How exactly does AA build the rest of the roster?
 
Enscheff said:
That’s fine, but I doubt they will budget around the assumption the team will make a title run every year. They have to plan payroll around projected sustained revenues.
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This is true. But for 2022 they should have a nice 'bonus' that they can use towards payroll. That can be used as a one year deal for a player, or as you suggested at one point, give Freeman a good signing bonus and to lower the yearly hit on payroll.
 
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