Official 2024 Off-Season Thread!

SoCalDawg said:
I had an interesting phone conversation with Keith Law a few years ago. He hit me up on LinkedIn to complain about a former employee of mine that was blowing up his twitter. It turned out the former employee never updated his LinkedIn page. When he first messaged me I asked him to call me and he did. Once I explained the situation he was fine, but I couldn’t let him of the phone without discussing Andruw and his HoF chances. We got into a pretty good debate and it turned into a really good conversation about the Braves. Prolly for a good 20 minutes. I thought I made some good arguments about Andruw and he certainly conceded some points, but still didn’t think Andruw was quite there.

Would you folks be interested in him doing a Q/A on this forum? Maybe toward the end of spring training once we get a look at some of the young guys? Let me know me I’ll see what I can do to arrange it if the interest is there from you guys.
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I've always kind of liked Law in spite of his blatant misses on many Braves players. Snitching to someone's employer for mean tweets seems like kind of a bïtch move.

Hopefully there was more to it than that for Keith to call you.
 
FG just did a good analysis on the accuracy of the major prospect sites back in 2017: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hows-my-driving/

The main takeaway should probably be that every site missed on some guys, and every site nailed some guys.

I do think 2017 represents the low point of the modern FG prospect analysis, and it has improved over the years more than any other site. However, they take FOREVER to publish prospect content (the team lists may not be done before the draft), and no level of quality makes up for the massive delay in getting the content out.
 
DirkPiggler said:
I've always kind of liked Law in spite of his blatant misses on many Braves players. Snitching to someone's employer for mean tweets seems like kind of a bïtch move.

Hopefully there was more to it than that for Keith to call you.
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I think Law is fine. I don't think a lot of Braves' fan realize that Strider is a total unicorn. If the Braves (or anyone else) thought he was going to be as good as he's turned out, they wouldn't have waited until the 4th round to draft him in 2020.

A little bit different on Harris. He was rushed a bit and because of that he didn't show up on a lot of prospect lists, but he was fairly highly-regarded coming out of high school (a lot of scouts loved him more as a pitcher) and perceived to have a high floor (which he has more than met).

I've come to wonder more about the Braves' minor league instruction as opposed to scouting. Player development worked well with Harris. but outside of Alvarez most of the position guys in full-season ball last year were human ceiling fans. Maybe the influx of younger international guys (and Drake) will change things a bit. DSL team from 2023 looks to have some guys with a chance. I'm not discounting Glod, Benitez, and Tavarez. Given the bonus money doled out to those guys, they are going to get every chance to show what they've got.
 
Enscheff said:
FG just did a good analysis on the accuracy of the major prospect sites back in 2017: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hows-my-driving/

The main takeaway should probably be that every site missed on some guys, and every site nailed some guys.

I do think 2017 represents the low point of the modern FG prospect analysis, and it has improved over the years more than any other site. However, they take FOREVER to publish prospect content (the team lists may not be done before the draft), and no level of quality makes up for the massive delay in getting the content out.
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It's just really hard to gauge whether a prospect has fully developed physically (especially high school guys) and whether guys can acquire skill application to match their tools.

My daughter was a good gymnast and I saw it all the time as kids from her program and other programs aged and moved up to higher levels of competition. Some of the physical gap between girls who developed physically earlier in terms of strength and girls who lagged in that aspect closed and a lot of the early developers (who were getting by on physical advantage) couldn't master the skills necessary to excel as they moved to higher levels. It's not apples-to-apples when compared to baseball scouting and player development, but I do think it shows how tools and skill acquisition are often in totally different universes.
 
cajunrevenge said:
What year was it that FG put that random scrub at the top of the Braves prospect list. Jacob Webb I think it was.
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There was a contributor who had RHP Ryan Weber as the Braves' 3rd- or 4th-best prospect based on his impeccable control numbers in the minors. Good example of what I was talking about above. Weber was on the US Junior National team as a high school pitcher. Excellent control with below average fastball. That combination can work at lower levels of competition but it usually doesn't hold as guys move up. I think some viewed Weber as a possible Kyle Hendricks type, but it didn't happen. All that said, Weber has managed to stick around and pitched for parts of nine major league seasons.
 
50PoundHead said:
There was a contributor who had RHP Ryan Weber as the Braves' 3rd- or 4th-best prospect based on his impeccable control numbers in the minors. Good example of what I was talking about above. Weber was on the US Junior National team as a high school pitcher. Excellent control with below average fastball. That combination can work at lower levels of competition but it usually doesn't hold as guys move up. I think some viewed Weber as a possible Kyle Hendricks type, but it didn't happen. All that said, Weber has managed to stick around and pitched for parts of nine major league seasons.
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Even guys who ultimately succeed at the MLB level sometimes fail with what made them good at lower levels. Longenhagen cites a couple in his 2017 retrospective, in fact: Lucas Giolito, who he notes aced through lesser competition with a big, bendy curveball that was too identifiable for big leaguers (while the changeup he developed along the way became his best pitch); and our own Ozhaino Albies, who both Longenhagen and the industry at large forecast to derive offensive value from a contact-oriented approach, but who's become one of the most productive players in the 2017 class through big-bopping.

Just another example of "development is not linear," even for guys who are highly-rated and pan out pretty quickly.
 
cajunrevenge said:
What year was it that FG put that random scrub at the top of the Braves prospect list. Jacob Webb I think it was.
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It was this guy: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-atlanta-braves/

The list was actually published in an even worse state, as noted in the comment at the top:

"*EDIT: After a strong showing from internet commenters, I added a couple changes to this piece. You’ll see that Austin Riley and Kolby Allard were both added to the list, as well as some notes under Ryan Weber’s report."

So imagine when this list was posted late 2015 and didn't even have Allard or Riley on it, along with Weber at #4 (Allard pushed him to #5 after his edit). The guy thought so little of Allard he left him off the list, and then after backlash made him #4. He also completely forgot Austin Riley existed after smashing 2 levels of Rookie ball at the age of 18.

Consequently, this is the last pre-Longenhagen prospect list for FG. I think they realized this guy was clueless, and were lucky to find EL.
 
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Enscheff said:
It was this guy: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-atlanta-braves/

The list was actually published in an even worse state, as noted in the comment at the top:

"*EDIT: After a strong showing from internet commenters, I added a couple changes to this piece. You’ll see that Austin Riley and Kolby Allard were both added to the list, as well as some notes under Ryan Weber’s report."

So imagine when this list was posted late 2015 and didn't even have Allard or Riley on it, along with Weber at #4 (Allard pushed him to #5 after his edit). The guy thought so little of Allard he left him off the list, and then after backlash made him #4. He also completely forgot Austin Riley existed after smashing 2 levels of Rookie ball at the age of 18.

Consequently, this is the last pre-Longenhagen prospect list for FG. I think they realized this guy was clueless, and were lucky to find EL.
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Thanks for finding that. I was off by one with Weber. Totally forgot about future HOFer John Gant. Have to laugh when I see Acuna down in the bold face "quick hits" section. I would be curious as to how the author came up with the list. It seems to feature early-round draft picks, guys the Braves acquired early in the rebuild, and some of the international players who got a decent-sized bonus.
 
SoCalDawg said:
I had an interesting phone conversation with Keith Law a few years ago. He hit me up on LinkedIn to complain about a former employee of mine that was blowing up his twitter. It turned out the former employee never updated his LinkedIn page. When he first messaged me I asked him to call me and he did. Once I explained the situation he was fine, but I couldn’t let him of the phone without discussing Andruw and his HoF chances. We got into a pretty good debate and it turned into a really good conversation about the Braves. Prolly for a good 20 minutes. I thought I made some good arguments about Andruw and he certainly conceded some points, but still didn’t think Andruw was quite there.

Would you folks be interested in him doing a Q/A on this forum? Maybe toward the end of spring training once we get a look at some of the young guys? Let me know me I’ll see what I can do to arrange it if the interest is there from you guys.
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...trying to decide if I think he was an asshole to call a Twitter guys employer or not.

Balancing it against the Twitter guy being an asshole.

Coming down to Law was really punching down instead of just blocking a pest.
 
SoCalDawg said:
I had an interesting phone conversation with Keith Law a few years ago. He hit me up on LinkedIn to complain about a former employee of mine that was blowing up his twitter. It turned out the former employee never updated his LinkedIn page. When he first messaged me I asked him to call me and he did. Once I explained the situation he was fine, but I couldn’t let him of the phone without discussing Andruw and his HoF chances. We got into a pretty good debate and it turned into a really good conversation about the Braves. Prolly for a good 20 minutes. I thought I made some good arguments about Andruw and he certainly conceded some points, but still didn’t think Andruw was quite there.

Would you folks be interested in him doing a Q/A on this forum? Maybe toward the end of spring training once we get a look at some of the young guys? Let me know me I’ll see what I can do to arrange it if the interest is there from you guys.
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Q&A with a major baseball writer would be absolutely amazing, regardless of how he handled a jerk reader, or what we think about his takes on Braves prospects. If that can be set up we would all be extremely lucky to be part of it.

Just have the questions prescreened by a moderator.
 
Southcack77 said:
...trying to decide if I think he was an asshole to call a Twitter guys employer or not.

Balancing it against the Twitter guy being an asshole.

Coming down to Law was really punching down instead of just blocking a pest.
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Yeah, nice guy, but a little thin skinned. Probably comes with the territory.
 
Law had a long write up today about our farm system and didn't say the word "Braves" once. He refuses to write it, and it absolutely cracks me up.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I even said that I liked them playing every other day in the summer. Catchers have to wear that equipment and it is a taxing position. But as the season started to end and weather settled a bit, Murphy still was being benched. Murphy is head and shoulders better than TDA and should be starting in the playoffs.
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Not necessarily. Murphy hit .999 the first half and .585 the second half. He was awful. Yes he's the superior defensive catcher. But after the all star break, he couldn't hit water from a boat.
 
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