Official 2024 Off-Season Thread!

Looking at teams that got the worse production from 2B last year that have SP to sell to see who matches up with our main trade piece Vaughn Grissom. The White Sox were dead last in offensive production at 2B getting .215/.253/.348. Brewers were 28th getting .227/.304/.298. So that makes me think we could be players for Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease. Burnes intrigues me as he has low tread on his tires given his age and has averaged 30 starts the last 3 years. He seems to be trending the wrong way so I probably would want to see him perform in 2024 before even trying to sign him long term. Cease would probably take a good bit more since he has 2 years of team control remaining as opposed to 1. I think we could get just about anyone on the trade block if we were to offer AJSS and Grissom but I really hope AJSS is untouchable. I would expect something like Grissom/Elder/Richie/Owen Murphy for Cease. That honestly still feels light but I do think Cease is the best bet for a trade and then sign an extension. He is only projected for 8.7 million in arbitration this year so maybe an offer of 6/150 would get an extension signed. That would negate some of his value but I think it has benefit in that we would be signing him through his age 34 season as opposed to signing him to a 6+ year deal when he hits FA that goes until his late 30's. He was born in Georgia so that gives me some hope even though his agent is Scott Borass.
 
Southcack77 said:
thing is you do the Yam deal without knowing if he'll perform and hold up.
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You never know if pitchers will “perform and hold up.”

I’d rather bank on an uber-talented 25-year-old (who’s performed extremely well at a AAA-equivalent league and internationally) than Aaron Nola (or any of the lesser high-priced, 30+-year-old starters on the market currently).
 
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If Nola really took a discount to sign 7/172 then that’s a sign the predictions for SP contracts might be on the low side. It gives me even more appreciation for Morton going year to year at $20M.
 
Enscheff said:
If Nola really took a discount to sign 7/172 then that’s a sign the predictions for SP contracts might be on the low side. It gives me even more appreciation for Morton going year to year at $20M.
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I've always wondered about the player mindset on something like this and what counts as a discount. Say the Braves offered 5/$30 MM AAV. That's $150 million. 7/$172 MM comes out around $24.5 MM AAV. I'll let all the accountants banter about the present value of money and how that enters into the discussion, but if Nola takes a hypothetical five-year offer from the Braves at that amount, Nola's 35 when the contract ends and what are the chances he can get another contract that will cover the difference between the Braves' deal and the deal he signed with the Phillies? I'm not advocating one over the other, but when a free agent pitcher is in his 30s (unless you are in the Verlander/Scherzer universe), he's probably thinking "last contract" so he'll probably opt for more total dollars overall.
 
Again, AA and his front office don't leak anything. So any leaked information is likely just posturing by the agent of that player to get a better deal.
 
Gray just had a career year at the age of 33, and has a rejected QO attached. There are deals that make sense for him, but I really hope AA doesn’t win the bidding on him as the 2nd SP off the board. To me, he only makes sense late in the offseason if he overplayed his hand.
 
I really like Gray but losing 2 picks and international money has to be factored into any deal and at 34 I think it’ll hurt his market more than anybody else’s. We’ll see what happens but for the first time I actually believe we can sign any player the team wants. No better time to be a Braves fan than right now. Yamamoto gets posted Tuesday and I hope we’re right in the middle of it.
 
50PoundHead said:
I've always wondered about the player mindset on something like this and what counts as a discount. Say the Braves offered 5/$30 MM AAV. That's $150 million. 7/$172 MM comes out around $24.5 MM AAV. I'll let all the accountants banter about the present value of money and how that enters into the discussion, but if Nola takes a hypothetical five-year offer from the Braves at that amount, Nola's 35 when the contract ends and what are the chances he can get another contract that will cover the difference between the Braves' deal and the deal he signed with the Phillies? I'm not advocating one over the other, but when a free agent pitcher is in his 30s (unless you are in the Verlander/Scherzer universe), he's probably thinking "last contract" so he'll probably opt for more total dollars overall.
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Nola could probably get another 3/60 deal at the end of a 5 year deal assuming he's still healthy and productive. However 22 million is a lot of money to risk especially if he really just wants to stay in Philly. He also pitched more like a MOR starter than a TOR this year and isn't likely to get better.
 
jpx7 said:
You never know if pitchers will “perform and hold up.”

I’d rather bank on an uber-talented 25-year-old (who’s performed extremely well at a AAA-equivalent league and internationally) than Aaron Nola (or any of the lesser high-priced, 30+-year-old starters on the market currently).
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Well, you generally have seen whether they can perform at the MLB level and have additionally seen them over years in a five man rotation before laying out that money.
 
If AA wants to add frontline pitching via free agency, he’s going to need adjust his thinking on number of years. I’m sure he’s probably on the phone a lot with the White Sox and Brewers these days about trades.
 
I’ve been screaming for Cease for almost a year now. I hope he is high on the list and could be extended. We just need one top starter this year and another next year when the market is loaded and a lot of teams that got pitching this year won’t need it next year. We’ll need a DH next year also with Ozuna gone.
 
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