Official 2024 Off-Season Thread!

Carp said:
I think we are definitely going to be trading Gonzalez, and probably Iglesias too. We're up against the 2nd Luxury tax level and I doubt AA has the clearance to go much (if any) over that. For that reason, here is a couple of ideas I have floated around.

Option 1: Raisel Iglesias, Bryce Elder, Vaughn Grissom, Marco Gonzalez and cash to the Rays for Tyler Glasnow and filler. Money is basically a wash this year. Maybe we eat a little of Iglesias's contract in 2025 as well. May have to swap AJSS for Elder. It's hard to peg Glasnow's price given his injury history so this is just spit-balling

Option 2: Marco Gonzalez, Raisel Iglesias and around 8 million in cash to the Orioles for whatever we can get. This is a complete salary dump for us but gives the O's a good closer to replace Bautista and a back end starter for around 20 million total for 2024. We use the freed up money to either sign a pitcher like Stroman/E-Rod, or we trade for Glasnow/Burnes/Cease/etc.
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I hate Option 1 (especially if it includes Smith-Shawver). Option 2 isn’t really an option, given there’s no target from the Orioles.

Generally, I don’t think the team is planning on, or particularly interested in, trading Iglesias.
 
I don't think Iglesias is necessarily irreplaceable, but I don't agree with trading him from what's a strength on the team. Because then what happens? Things haven't always gone well for Minter as closer. Don't know that I'd trust Johnson or Jimenez or Bummer and what about the plan to have Lopez be a multi-inning guy?
 
thewupk said:
[tw]1721952469939372382[/tw]
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I love AA, but my concern is his contract appears to be up after next season and we haven't heard anything about an extension. It's likely nothing and will get worked out, but can't help but think of the way he walked away from the Blue Jays.
 
NYCBrave said:
I love AA, but my concern is his contract appears to be up after next season and we haven't heard anything about an extension. It's likely nothing and will get worked out, but can't help but think of the way he walked away from the Blue Jays.
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He did an interview in February where he said he wont find a better job than the one he's in and plans to be here as long as the Braves will have him. Of course that could change but all indications are he's extremely happy.
 
CJ9 said:
Hopefully Ohtani signs soon so things can get moving.
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Yeah, this is always the worst part of the offseason. Everyone waiting for 1-2 guys to sign so the rest of the dominoes can fall.

The only thing more annoying than waiting on 1 guy is the constant nonsense about which teams are “still engaged” and the always famous “mystery team”.

We get it, you’re special. Just sign the damn contact already.
 
Respect for Dave Roberts for cutting through that bull**** and just saying, "Yeah we met with him." He can turn down all that money if he wants.
 
I'd be shocked if Ohtani goes anywhere but to the Dodgers. They can offer top money, a good chance for a ring, and they're in the same general city where he already plays. It makes too much sense.
 
Enscheff said:
Yeah, this is always the worst part of the offseason. Everyone waiting for 1-2 guys to sign so the rest of the dominoes can fall.

The only thing more annoying than waiting on 1 guy is the constant nonsense about which teams are “still engaged” and the always famous “mystery team”.

We get it, you’re special. Just sign the damn contact already.
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I think the only two rumor mongers who are worth their salt is Passan and Rosenthal. All the others tend to bounce around publication to publication, so the incentive to report “what they heard” for views is much higher. Heyman will break news but he’s guiltier than most at reporting the obvious and listing as many obvious teams as possible so that the fans of those teams click the link to read a rumor that doesn’t mean anything.
 
chop2chip said:
I think the only two rumor mongers who are worth their salt is Passan and Rosenthal. All the others tend to bounce around publication to publication, so the incentive to report “what they heard” for views is much higher. Heyman will break news but he’s guiltier than most at reporting the obvious and listing as many obvious teams as possible so that the fans of those teams click the link to read a rumor that doesn’t mean anything.
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Passan will always be a bitch for telling players not to take the CBA deal.
 
I dont follow baseball like I used to but I am looking at the Orioles on fangraphs and wondering how they won 100 games. Or how they finished within 20 games of the Braves for that matter. Exactly 3 players with over 3 WAR on the whole roster. Not a single 30 HR hitter. Top 3 are 28, 28, and 20 HR. Matt Olson almost hit more HR than their top 2 guys. Only 2 position players had an OBP above .328. Their catcher and then an outfielder with less than 250 at bats. Orlando Arcia would have been tied for their 3rd best position player based on WAR. They had no really great defensive player. Their best was their catcher and he wasnt close to as good as Murphy defensively. No batter hit .290 or better. No player had better than a .489 slugging %. You would think they had great pitching then. They had 1 sub 3 ERA SP and the next best was 3.98 ERA in only 20 starts. Everyone else between 4 an 5 ERA. They did have 3 very good RP and overall had the second best pen but their 3.55 ERA was still only marginally better than the Braves 3.81 out of the pen. They look like an 85 win team to me.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I dont follow baseball like I used to but I am looking at the Orioles on fangraphs and wondering how they won 100 games. Or how they finished within 20 games of the Braves for that matter. Exactly 3 players with over 3 WAR on the whole roster. Not a single 30 HR hitter. Top 3 are 28, 28, and 20 HR. Matt Olson almost hit more HR than their top 2 guys. Only 2 position players had an OBP above .328. Their catcher and then an outfielder with less than 250 at bats. Orlando Arcia would have been tied for their 3rd best position player based on WAR. They had no really great defensive player. Their best was their catcher and he wasnt close to as good as Murphy defensively. No batter hit .290 or better. No player had better than a .489 slugging %. You would think they had great pitching then. They had 1 sub 3 ERA SP and the next best was 3.98 ERA in only 20 starts. Everyone else between 4 an 5 ERA. They did have 3 very good RP and overall had the second best pen but their 3.55 ERA was still only marginally better than the Braves 3.81 out of the pen. They look like an 85 win team to me.
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The answer is luck. Here is their 2nd and 3rd order win percentages: https://claydavenport.com/stats/standings.html

~90 wins
 
cajunrevenge said:
I dont follow baseball like I used to but I am looking at the Orioles on fangraphs and wondering how they won 100 games. Or how they finished within 20 games of the Braves for that matter. Exactly 3 players with over 3 WAR on the whole roster. Not a single 30 HR hitter. Top 3 are 28, 28, and 20 HR. Matt Olson almost hit more HR than their top 2 guys. Only 2 position players had an OBP above .328. Their catcher and then an outfielder with less than 250 at bats. Orlando Arcia would have been tied for their 3rd best position player based on WAR. They had no really great defensive player. Their best was their catcher and he wasnt close to as good as Murphy defensively. No batter hit .290 or better. No player had better than a .489 slugging %. You would think they had great pitching then. They had 1 sub 3 ERA SP and the next best was 3.98 ERA in only 20 starts. Everyone else between 4 an 5 ERA. They did have 3 very good RP and overall had the second best pen but their 3.55 ERA was still only marginally better than the Braves 3.81 out of the pen. They look like an 85 win team to me.
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You were looking at the wrong site.

Baseball ref tells you all you need to know. They had a pythag w-l of 94-68. Went 30-16 in 1 run games. A good team that got lucky in 1 run games.

But to break things down among the AL teams.

4th in FIP (1st in bullpen FIP)

5th in combined WRC+ and BSR

11th in UZR

They were a good team that got a little lucky. What I've seen a lot is that teams with great pens (which the O's had) will usually perform better in 1 run games. So while that seems lucky it is earned to a degree.
 
chop2chip said:
I think the only two rumor mongers who are worth their salt is Passan and Rosenthal. All the others tend to bounce around publication to publication, so the incentive to report “what they heard” for views is much higher. Heyman will break news but he’s guiltier than most at reporting the obvious and listing as many obvious teams as possible so that the fans of those teams click the link to read a rumor that doesn’t mean anything.
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Rosenthal reminds me of Gammons without the Red Sox bias. Seems to be really plugged in.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I dont follow baseball like I used to but I am looking at the Orioles on fangraphs and wondering how they won 100 games. Or how they finished within 20 games of the Braves for that matter. Exactly 3 players with over 3 WAR on the whole roster. Not a single 30 HR hitter. Top 3 are 28, 28, and 20 HR. Matt Olson almost hit more HR than their top 2 guys. Only 2 position players had an OBP above .328. Their catcher and then an outfielder with less than 250 at bats. Orlando Arcia would have been tied for their 3rd best position player based on WAR. They had no really great defensive player. Their best was their catcher and he wasnt close to as good as Murphy defensively. No batter hit .290 or better. No player had better than a .489 slugging %. You would think they had great pitching then. They had 1 sub 3 ERA SP and the next best was 3.98 ERA in only 20 starts. Everyone else between 4 an 5 ERA. They did have 3 very good RP and overall had the second best pen but their 3.55 ERA was still only marginally better than the Braves 3.81 out of the pen. They look like an 85 win team to me.
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They remind me of the early-90s Braves in that they are totally stacked with prospects. Their pitching isn't as great as those Braves' teams, but they have a ton of young hitters already in the bigs and Holliday, Cowser, Norby, and Mayo on the way. One guy I would like the Braves to take a look at is Joey Ortiz. He's a middle infielder who is totally blocked and has had a lot of success in the minors.
 
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