Excellent posts by CC and zito (although I think zito overrates our team's ability and ignores some giant holes).
It's my guess Fredi and coaching staff will be gone the day after the season. Maybe McDowell and Pendleton get asked back. McDowell has resurrected at least as many guys as Leo did and gotten as much or more out of a bunch of seemingly marginal bullpen guys, but doesn't seem to get the credit he is due in the national media. I'm sure if there is a change in managers, McDowell will be the target of offers from other organizations. I think Pendleton is a link to the organizational culture and I was surprised when he was shuffled to what is seemingly a lesser role. Maybe he gets kicked upstairs if Gonzalez goes.
Wren gets another chance to choose his guy. I always thought Fredi was a pick made above Wren's paygrade given Fredi's previous service in the organization. So Wren gets to pick his guy and I have very little confidence in Wren to make a good choice. I worried that we'd see Baltimore redux with Wren, but Wren's defenders blamed his problems there on Angelos. Plausible theory, but also plausible that Wren screwed up as well and he's making the same screw-ups here.
Fredi seemed to manage differently this season. He put Uggla, BJ, and CJ out there every day instead of subbing liberally early in the season the way he did last year. I've wondered if those orders were coming from up top. Uggla played his way out of baseball (and anyone who defends his play this season needs to see a shrink regarding their obsessive/compulsive disorder) and BJ and CJ have both been miserable. Somehow Wren extended Johnson, which was totally ridiculous. The contract isn't onerous, but it still impedes the team's flexibility and if we are on a tight budget (and one can never be too sure where we are at in that department).
Fredi's use of the bullpen this year was spotty at best and the losses of Venters and O'Flaherty and collapse of Avilan left us without a viable LHP the entire season. Shae Simmons' injury also hurt because it has forced Hale and Varvaro into higher leverage situations and that's just not their proper role. Carpenter's regression has also hurt, but he has bounced back a bit. But even with these injuries, Fredi could never get folks into a proper pecking order and build back effectively from Kimbrel.
Future of the team? Good core in Freeman, Heyward, and Justin Upton. Gattis has his moments, but he seems to get nicked a lot and isn't that great behind the dish. Still, he has a very solid bat. I just see him as a 350-400 AB guy. I don't think Simmons is going to hit much or at least hit consistently. I'm not as sold on La Stella as many. People can point out his decline since the decision to platoon him, but he was declining prior to that, so it's a kind of chicken/egg thing. I agree that Gosselin, while not a pumpkin per se, is a utility guy and if they are counting on him to be a regular, they need to re-think that. I've already covered BJ and CJ. Peraza is the only guy in the high minors who looks to be an impact guy, so unless there's a housecleaning, we're looking at pretty much the same line-up next year. Pitching staff has two good young guys at the head of the line in Teheran and Wood, but question marks behind them. I think Minor sticks around. But after that, things will need to be patched together, both in the last two starting slots ad the bullpen other than Kimbrel and Walden. HUGE job.
I've rambled a bit (a bit?). If brief, I think Fredi's toast. Team is tired and is playing tired. Is that Fredi or the fact they are just worn out? Hard to say, but it is what it is and Fredi has contributed to that to some extent.
I'm more worried about Wren. Has never seemed to work from a blueprint and instead makes impulsive moves here and there. I'll say that the moving budget target hasn't helped, but his free agent decisions have been disastrous. Should be an interesting off-season.
