Official off-season trade rumor and suggestion thread

BRule said:
Yes, BEFORE the year I said they would be a 6-7-8 seed. We are mid season and you said Harden was average. How do you think these scenerios are alike?
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You know i was just kidding, right?
 
DOB posted this information on twitter:

@DOBrienAJC
FWIW, vs. Braves: J. Zimmermann 4-2, 2.93 ERA in 10 starts; Roark 3-0, 1.70 ERA in 7 g (5 starts); Scherzer 1-2, 4.13 ERA in 6 g (4 starts)

This response one fan made to DOB's tweet is pretty funny:

@rmhsval
@DOBrienAJC That was against Atlanta Braves. How did they do versus Gwinnett?
 
gilesfan said:
YOu don't really think Zimmermann is as good as Scherzer, right?
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I don't think the difference is relevant. Likely could have extended Zimmermann and saved at least 40 million if not more. You think Max is worth 40 million more than Zimm?
 
MLBTR update on Gallardo to Texas trade: "Gallardo has been informed that he’s been dealt to Texas, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo was first to tweet. The return includes infielder Luis Sardinas, righty Corey Knebel, and righty Marcos Diplan, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter)."
 
Carp said:
I don't think the difference is relevant. Likely could have extended Zimmermann and saved at least 40 million if not more. You think Max is worth 40 million more than Zimm?
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Scherzers contract won't be 40 million more when you account for the structure of the contract (time value of money). I would guess Zimmermann gets somewhere close to Lester.

Scherzer is significantly better in the short term considering his numbers vs. Zimmermanns and accounting for the difference in quality of batters faced (AL) and innings pitched.
 
Scherzer is a great pitcher but 7 years is almost always a death sentence for pitching contracts. I can't recall one that has worked out after the first few years... Maybe CC but he has declined rapidly and his contract is now an albatross.
 
I don't think I'm in the minority when I say this is a win-now move for the Nats. This is not a good move in the long run for the Nats. But, just like they always do, they'll find a way to get out of his contract... probably win a WS in between doing so.
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
If I'm a Gnats fan, I'm pretty irritated right now. That contract is flat out insane.
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I can't possibly understand why ANY NATS FANS would be upset with that deal - you're getting Scherzer at $10 million/year BELOW market value (at least) for the 7 years he pitches. Considering the fact that Mr. Lerner's financial advisors seem to be relatively adequate, investing that $70 million wisely will pay for the deferrals. Could that potentially cut into your bottom line after he retires? Slightly maybe. But a World Series win or two will offset that. Considering how much money they've got coming off the books and the consistent revenues growth MLB continues to provide, this was all but a no-brainer when Borass was able to convince him to accept the structure.
 
Braves1976 said:
MLBTR update on Gallardo to Texas trade: "Gallardo has been informed that he’s been dealt to Texas, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo was first to tweet. The return includes infielder Luis Sardinas, righty Corey Knebel, and righty Marcos Diplan, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter)."
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I'm a big fan of Diplan - big arm. Really nice return for one year of Gallardo.
 
sturg33 said:
Scherzer is a great pitcher but 7 years is almost always a death sentence for pitching contracts. I can't recall one that has worked out after the first few years... Maybe CC but he has declined rapidly and his contract is now an albatross.
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Hamels has, otherwise.....
 
zitothebrave said:
They're in a win now mode. Can you imagine having to face Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Scherzer in the post season?
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Pretty tough which leads to why they would trade one of Stras or JZ.

Especially with Desmond gone, along with one, maybe both of JZ/Fister after this year.

Sustained success, yada yada yada, but you never know when you'll be this good again.
 
sturg33 said:
Scherzer is a great pitcher but 7 years is almost always a death sentence for pitching contracts. I can't recall one that has worked out after the first few years... Maybe CC but he has declined rapidly and his contract is now an albatross.
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Sabathia you dont' know what will happen this year. Again assuming about 6M per WAR, he's basically been worth his contract, if he's healthy this year, he should get the 11M gap that is needed.

The issue you run into, most big pitcher contracts are less than 3 seasons old. Others were universally panned like say Barry Zito.
 
clvclv said:
I can't possibly understand why ANY NATS FANS would be upset with that deal - you're getting Scherzer at $10 million/year BELOW market value (at least) for the 7 years he pitches. Considering the fact that Mr. Lerner's financial advisors seem to be relatively adequate, investing that $70 million wisely will pay for the deferrals. Could that potentially cut into your bottom line after he retires? Slightly maybe. But a World Series win or two will offset that. Considering how much money they've got coming off the books and the consistent revenues growth MLB continues to provide, this was all but a no-brainer when Borass was able to convince him to accept the structure.
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Pretty much assume 7.5 million a win and increase that by 5% per year. Subtract a half a win a year.

Where to start? He's been 4.5, 6.4, 5.6 over the past 3 years in the AL in front of terrible defense. (see transition Fister made to better defense/NL). I think a conservative estimate is 5 wins in year 1.

1- 5 wins (7.5/win)= 37.5 million
2- 4.5 wins (7.9/win = 35.4 million
3- 4 wins (8.27/win)= 33.1 million
4- 3.5 wins (8.7/win) = 30.5 million
5- 3 wins (9.1/win)= 27 million
6- 2.5 wins (9.6/win) = 23.9 million
7- 2 wins (10.1/win) = 20.2 million

24.5 projected WAR/ 208 million in value

Start at 4.5 and use same calculations and you get 21 WAR, 177 million in value. Start at 4 WAR and you get 17.5 WAR and 147 million in value. Obviously, every pitcher doesn't age the same, but that's a general rule. Obviously an injury makes the whole contract terrible.

The key here is they get ridiculous value early on in this contract. They could get a 5-6 WAR pitcher at a price of 2.5 to 3 million per win. That gives you the flexibility of truly going for it.
 
Heyward said:
Pretty tough which leads to why they would trade one of Stras or JZ.

Especially with Desmond gone, along with one, maybe both of JZ/Fister after this year.

Sustained success, yada yada yada, but you never know when you'll be this good again.
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If someone blows them away with an offer then you do it. But otherwise stick with it.
 
gilesfan said:
Pretty much assume 7.5 million a win and increase that by 5% per year. Subtract a half a win a year.

Where to start? He's been 4.5, 6.4, 5.6 over the past 3 years in the AL in front of terrible defense. (see transition Fister made to better defense/NL). I think a conservative estimate is 5 wins in year 1.

1- 5 wins (7.5/win)= 37.5 million
2- 4.5 wins (7.9/win = 35.4 million
3- 4 wins (8.27/win)= 33.1 million
4- 3.5 wins (8.7/win) = 30.5 million
5- 3 wins (9.1/win)= 27 million
6- 2.5 wins (9.6/win) = 23.9 million
7- 2 wins (10.1/win) = 20.2 million

24.5 projected WAR/ 208 million in value

Start at 4.5 and use same calculations and you get 21 WAR, 177 million in value. Start at 4 WAR and you get 17.5 WAR and 147 million in value. Obviously, every pitcher doesn't age the same, but that's a general rule. Obviously an injury makes the whole contract terrible.

The key here is they get ridiculous value early on in this contract. They could get a 5-6 WAR pitcher at a price of 2.5 to 3 million per win. That gives you the flexibility of truly going for it.
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Fister had his worst peripheral season, only reason his ERA was down aside from league difference was an impossibly low to maintain BABIP.
 
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