Official off-season trade rumor and suggestion thread

@JesseSanchezMLB: More than 200 scouts attended workout for Hector Olivera last week in DR. SFG, SD, TX, ATL, NYY among teams showing strong interest. #Cuba

Hector Olivera defected from Cuba last September in hopes of signing with an MLB team and he’s drawing plenty of interest.

According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, more than 200 scouts attended a workout for Olivera last week in the Dominican Republic. The 29-year-old second baseman still has to be cleared by the U.S. government before signing with the a team, but Sanchez writes that the Giants, Padres, Rangers, Braves, and Yankees are among the teams showing strong interest in him.

Olivera has long been considered one of the best players in Cuba. In fact, Baseball America ranked him as the No. 6 player in Cuba last August, but he carries some questions due to his age and injury history. He missed the entire 2012-13 season due to thrombosis in his left biceps and hasn’t played in any international competition since. However, he batted .316/.412/.474 with seven home runs over 273 plate appearances in his return to Serie Nacional last season while amassing more walks (38) than strikeouts (25), so he can still get it done with the bat. It’s worth noting that he spent a lot of his time at DH, so he might have to prove that he can stick at second base stateside.

PS: Braves hoping to sign Olivera to replace CJ at third by 2016?

Curious if the Braves think he can play 3B
 
Curious if the Braves think he can play 3B

Yes, Olivera has experience at third base too. That is why the teams most interested in him are those with needs at 2b/3b. He could possibly be moved to the outfield too but has no experience there so that wouldn't be ideal.

My take is that teams with needs at third should be the most interested in him. There are questions about him sticking at second much longer. He seems more like a third baseman that has mostly played second to me. The Giants who also have needs at third are among the teams most interested in him. I figure they and the Yankees might be our toughest competition in trying to sign him.
 
Glad the Braves are at least kicking the tires on Olivera. Way more realistic target than Moncada, and seems to be a solid player. Would fit short term at 2B and long term at 3B. There's a chance that timing would benefit us if OFAC clears him soon. Many suitors have already exhausted their 2015 budget and we still have enough room to sign someone like this. Not to mention, we can entice him with immediate playing time at 2B.

I agree, Olivera seems to make a lot of sense for us given our needs at third, his potential with the bat, speed and he's a right handed hitter. He is also a player that once signed should be ready to help out right away. If we were to sign him we could have a very good infield in 2016 with Freeman, Peraza, Simmons and Olivera. A few other moves along with these changes and we could be a playoff team again with our pitching staff and pitching depth.
 
Rangers are reportedly looking for lefty relief help, could Avilan be headed to Texas? I wouldn't be surprised given our 40-man roster crunch along with previous reports that Avilan is available if we get a fair offer.
 
Hector Olivera update from Bed Badler. He suggests the Padres may be a slight favorite, with Giants, A's, and Braves in next tier. Quick snippet below on his workout . . .

"As for what happened on the field, scouts said Olivera looked good, perhaps a little tired on the second day, but he appeared to be in good physical condition, with more weight (6-foot-2, 220 pounds) than he had during his prime years on the national team, but carrying it in a good way. He ran the 60-yard dash in around 6.7 to 6.8 seconds, depending on the stopwatch, showing slightly above-average speed. He’s not flashy at second base, but scouts said he looked like a steady defender. Olivera also took groundballs at third base, and while he’s shown a plus arm in the past, he didn’t seem to be airing it out quite as much at the showcase.

Olivera has a quick bat and showed a tick above-average power, hitting the ball hard to all fields and generating loft with his swing. Like a lot of Cuban hitters, he wraps the bat in his setup, but he has a history of making consistent contact in games and scouts have lauded his hitting approach and strike-zone management."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/hector-olivera-showcase-report/
 
Braves reportedly asked for Jeff Hoffman from the Jays when discussing a Justin Upton trade. This fascination with players recovering from TJ surgery is incredible.

The Braves fascination is with high upside arms which are completely off limits unless they are dealing with arm issues, which even with Hoffman kept him off the table. I don't think people realize how lucky we were to be able to get Fried. Had it not been for the TJ, he would have been untouchable, as Hoffman still is.
 
Thoughts on Moncada's market from Jeff Passan below. I didn't realize that the penalty had to be paid in a lump sum w/in a month of signing. This would further add to the reporting / speculation that the Braves are not a match here. I can't imagine we could pull that off from a cash flow management perspective.

@JeffPassan
Moncada's market will come down to this: Who can most afford a giant cash payout for the bonus penalty? It is due a month after he signs.

@JeffPassan
If Moncada's market settles in $30M-$40M range, with a near dollar-for-dollar penalty, small number of teams will make a lump cash payment.
 
The Braves fascination is with high upside arms which are completely off limits unless they are dealing with arm issues, which even with Hoffman kept him off the table. I don't think people realize how lucky we were to be able to get Fried. Had it not been for the TJ, he would have been untouchable, as Hoffman still is.

Given the already high failure rate of starting pitching prospects without serious arm injuries I am still skeptical. Fried wasn't exactly dominating before the injury. Maybe I am just less optimistic after what happened with Medlen and Beachey. I honestly don't see major upside in Fried, he is more the upside of a mid rotation starter to me and that isn't worth the risk in my opinion.
 
Given the already high failure rate of starting pitching prospects without serious arm injuries I am still skeptical. Fried wasn't exactly dominating before the injury. Maybe I am just less optimistic after what happened with Medlen and Beachey. I honestly don't see major upside in Fried, he is more the upside of a mid rotation starter to me and that isn't worth the risk in my opinion.

What risk are you referring to?
 
A second surgery? A failure to return to pre-surgery form, despite having had ligament-replacement?

I understand that. There is inherent risk in every prospect. A lotto ticket. The alternative was probably not as high a ceiling prospect, and in that scenario...give me Fried.
 
Given the already high failure rate of starting pitching prospects without serious arm injuries I am still skeptical. Fried wasn't exactly dominating before the injury. Maybe I am just less optimistic after what happened with Medlen and Beachey. I honestly don't see major upside in Fried, he is more the upside of a mid rotation starter to me and that isn't worth the risk in my opinion.

Besides some control issues... he had a really good year in A ball at a young age of 19 before TJ...
 
Thoughts on Moncada's market from Jeff Passan below. I didn't realize that the penalty had to be paid in a lump sum w/in a month of signing. This would further add to the reporting / speculation that the Braves are not a match here. I can't imagine we could pull that off from a cash flow management perspective.

@JeffPassan
Moncada's market will come down to this: Who can most afford a giant cash payout for the bonus penalty? It is due a month after he signs.

@JeffPassan
If Moncada's market settles in $30M-$40M range, with a near dollar-for-dollar penalty, small number of teams will make a lump cash payment.

Yea, if that information is accurate then DOB is likely correct in stating we're out on Moncada. But we should be able to afford Olivera and others that cost less. If we're serious about becoming a winner again soon then we ought to sign two or three of these players coming over from Cuba to fill our needs. They may not all pan out as we hope, but if we say sign three and one or two help that could be big for us. A player like Olivera could fill a big need for us at third base and it helps too that he's a right handed hitter (we are getting lefty heavy again including prospects coming up soon).
 
What risk are you referring to?

Prospects, especially starting pitchers are all risky. Of the big 3 we had in Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino only 1 has become a good starting pitcher. Now add a significant injury on top of the inherent pitching prospect risk and it's like a 500k lottery ticket. Yeah 500k would be great but it's not the 500 million lottery ticket.

Besides some control issues... he had a really good year in A ball at a young age of 19 before TJ...

I wouldn't call a 7 k/9 and 4 bb/9 really good. I am not the only one to think it was a little underwhelming. This isn't to say I think he sucks but I don't think his upside is of a Frontline starter. I would have rather had Spangenberg, Seth Smith, and a good reliever prospect instead. I know that's gonna get a lot of hate but whatever.
 
I wouldn't call a 7 k/9 and 4 bb/9 really good. I am not the only one to think it was a little underwhelming. This isn't to say I think he sucks but I don't think his upside is of a Frontline starter. I would have rather had Spangenberg, Seth Smith, and a good reliever prospect instead. I know that's gonna get a lot of hate but whatever.

As I said in regards to the 4 bb/9... he had some control issues. But what 19 year old doesn't (his FIRST FULL professional year also, btw)? At 19 in A ball, his numbers are pretty good. The 7 k/9 doesn't bother me too much as he doesn't really project to be a huge strikeout guy and he's still filling into his frame. Sometimes TJ gives pitchers a tick or two up in velocity, also so who knows?
 
Prospects, especially starting pitchers are all risky. Of the big 3 we had in Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino only 1 has become a good starting pitcher. Now add a significant injury on top of the inherent pitching prospect risk and it's like a 500k lottery ticket. Yeah 500k would be great but it's not the 500 million lottery ticket.

That's really not fair... more often than not, young pitchers recover quite well with a first TJ surgery and in many cases come back stronger. Looking at the current rate of TJ surgeries... you probably have about a 50/50 chance of acquiring a pitcher who will have TJ if he hasn't already. I'd rather get the guys who are almost recovered. We have been burned by a few multiple victims, but those are the exception rather than the rule. We were just very unlucky with Venters/Medlen/Beachy. If the TJ is successful (more often than not it is... especially so young)... then lottery ticket comparison isn't really valid as the ceiling is just as high as it ever was and now he's probably more likely to not need it again.
 
I know it's not fair to compare to international signings because they get a head start but compare Fried to Sims at the same age and level. Sims 10.5 k/9 and 3.5 bb/9. He was picked 21st. Now Fried will have lost almost 2 full years of development. I think Fried is just as likely to flame out at AAA as he is to be a mid rotation starter or better.
 
I know it's not fair to compare to international signings because they get a head start but compare Fried to Sims at the same age and level. Sims 10.5 k/9 and 3.5 bb/9. He was picked 21st. Now Fried will have lost almost 2 full years of development. I think Fried is just as likely to flame out at AAA as he is to be a mid rotation starter or better.

I definitely can't argue against Sims having a better low A ball year... but the thing that hurts him is he took a major step back in almost all stats last year at high A. Now obviously, we don't have anything to compare that level with when it comes to Fried yet, but to think its likely a kid will flame out at AAA when he's only about to start his year 21 season... that's a bit early to say.
 
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