Official official offseason thread

ChapHillMatt said:
My fear is we sign up to a huge contract and he turns back into the mediocre offensive player he’s been in the past. I’d love to have his defense back no question but he’s a frustrating offensive player to watch. I’d rather spend the money elsewhere
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Swanson hasn't changed as a hitter in the last 4 years. The seasons he's had a high BABIP around .350 (2020, 2022) have been above average offensive seasons, and the seasons he's had a low BABIP around .300 (2019, 2021) have been below average seasons. He is what he is at this point, and his overall production is as the mercy of season-to-season BABIP variation. He should be valued as a 3+ win player, and that value certainly doesn't warrant the contract he is likely to get.
 
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Heyward said:
Problem is who are you spending that money on? No real top tier shortstops left. Only outfielders are Peralta, Brantley, Conforto, Pollock and Beni. BP and rotation are mostly set.
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Murphy extension incoming. Who else needs to be extended? I guess they could try and re-sign Fried again (assuming they've already tried). But if they're not going to spend the money on free agents then they'll likely continue to invest in their current players like they've been doing.
 
everyone keeps on and on about Murphy being so much better. I am just not a believer.

Murphy's avg EV has been going down every year and sits at 88.7 (above average, but not by much) but couple that with his 43% GB rate and I think he is going to regress very quickly. Maybe he maintains his EV as he ages.. maybe he starts to slap some more line drives... maybe I am over thinking the fact that catchers defense is minimalized with the new pitch clock and throw over rule. Runners are going to feast on every catcher. But personally, give me the better offensive catcher over the 'defensive' catcher any day of the week. Especially when we already had the better offensive catcher and 4 other prospects that could have been used another way.
 
tululush said:
Lol and just start the season with 3 empty holes on the 40 man? We're not done and to think we are is foolish. I saw a graphic yesterday that showed how much money each team has spent in free agent dollars. I think they had us at 1 million. If you think we're spending 1 million dollars this offseason and then kicking up our feet then you're nuts. We aren't done. We may not sign a big bat but we're most certainly not done.
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if that helps you sleep at night, I am cool with it. I think we can revisit this in spring training.. but the 'well we were already great team' talk has already begun.. so I assume it will be the same in spring.. I know it was which big FA are we getting when the season ended..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
if that helps you sleep at night, I am cool with it. I think we can revisit this in spring training.. but the 'well we were already great team' talk has already begun.. so I assume it will be the same in spring.. I know it was which big FA are we getting when the season ended..
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The big shortstops were the only ones we could get but no one could anticipate the market being what it is now. And we dont have a great team now? Thats interesting.
 
tululush said:
Murphy extension incoming. Who else needs to be extended? I guess they could try and re-sign Fried again (assuming they've already tried). But if they're not going to spend the money on free agents then they'll likely continue to invest in their current players like they've been doing.
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Maybe try to extend Minter? Not sure lol
 
Heyward said:
The big shortstops were the only ones we could get but no one could anticipate the market being what it is now. And we dont have a great team now? Thats interesting.
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I think I have said we have a great team.. we had a great team before the trade too.

I do agree it would be hard to accept the contracts being handed out. I am not mad we are not signing anything crazy. I was just responding to the fact that someone said I was done if I thought we were only spending a million in FA.. never said that but ok... I am saying we are not signing anyone big.. we are filling in around the edges and rolling with what we got.

I again expressed my dislike of the trade as it made us a weaker offensive club. I am a braves fan though, so I hope and pray I am wrong. wouldn't be the first time..
 
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Super said:
who says AA did not focus on SS? the FA prices were crazy and the trade prices i’m sure are too - whining about not using WC for Adames is so silly it’s impossible to take seriously.

if you were content having TDA and Contreras in the lineup every day then having Murphy and TDA in the lineup every day is the *same thing* except with vastly improved defense.

i’ll again say that when the opportunity to acquire one of the best players at their position presents itself, it’s a sound idea to take it. how many 5 WAR players are available for non-outrageous prices? those guys are 30 and getting 11 year contracts for $300m. AA got one for a fraction of the $ over 3 years for a good hitter who doesn’t have a real defensive position, a 3rd string catcher, and some minor leaguers. Murphy is really good!
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You keep coming back to the same stuff. No one says Murphy is not good. The consensus of the board says that, reality says that, we get it. It's YOUR opinion just like its MY opinion that the catcher situation was not the ideal place to start. AA did it so I'm ok with it. I think I know that he has more to come. That being said, I stand by the thought that WC will be just as good offensively, with work to be done as an average catcher.

That still is not my argument (WC). It's about where we are TODAY. And before the "AA is not done crowd," comes for me, duh.
 
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Deester11 said:
You keep coming back to the same stuff. No one says Murphy is not good. The consensus of the board says that, reality says that, we get it. It's YOUR opinion just like its MY opinion that the catcher situation was not the ideal place to start. AA did it so I'm ok with it. I think I know that he has more to come. That being said, I stand by the thought that WC will be just as good offensively, with work to be done as an average catcher.

That still is not my argument (WC). It's about where we are TODAY. And before the "AA is not done crowd," comes for me, duh.
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There's a MASSIVE, MASSIVE gap in their defense. If the offense even favors WC. Defense for a catcher is so critical going forward with the new pickoff rules.
 
Heyward said:
There's a MASSIVE, MASSIVE gap in their defense. If the offense even favors WC. Defense for a catcher is so critical going forward with the new pickoff rules.
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We will see I guess. Whatever the rules dictate and how it plays out is anyones guess. I'm not scoffing at defense one bit. But my take is my take. I stand on it.
 
Deester11 said:
We will see I guess. Whatever the rules dictate and how it plays out is anyones guess. I'm not scoffing at defense one bit. But my take is my take. I stand on it.
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Thats fine, opinions are like buttholes, they all stink. Just kidding, sort of.
 
Heyward said:
There's a MASSIVE, MASSIVE gap in their defense. If the offense even favors WC. Defense for a catcher is so critical going forward with the new pickoff rules.
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I am curious how this plays. So you think that a good throwing catcher will be even more valuable? I guess I see it differently. I think good base stealers are going to feast regardless of who is the catcher. They are going to expand thier lead and temp the pitcher to break contact. The pitcher can't just hold and wait either.. he has to make a decision in 20 seconds from when he gets the ball back from the catcher. One reason I think Okland valued the speedster so much. stealing bases will be back to being cool. regardless, this will be very interesting thing to watch this year. I hate the rule personally.. but Mandick wants to put some mark on baseball he can call a legacy I guess.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I am curious how this plays. So you think that a good throwing catcher will be even more valuable? I guess I see it differently. I think good base stealers are going to feast regardless of who is the catcher. They are going to expand thier lead and temp the pitcher to break contact. The pitcher can't just hold and wait either.. he has to make a decision in 20 seconds from when he gets the ball back from the catcher. One reason I think Okland valued the speedster so much. stealing bases will be back to being cool. regardless, this will be very interesting thing to watch this year. I hate the rule personally.. but Mandick wants to put some mark on baseball he can call a legacy I guess.
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I'm not saying thats why we got Murphy, but it played a part. TDA isnt exactly known for throwing out runners, good defensive catcher/overall, with framing, hitting, etc. But throwing out guys isnt his calling card. He is getting older too. I'm curious how it all plays out too with the new rules. Maybe AA doesnt feel that WC can be a good enough defensive catcher going forward.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
compare TDA's advance stats to Murphy's
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Is this meant to suggest that Murphy isn't a large upgrade according to advance stats? Murphy is solidly better in every category (xBA, xSLG, xWOBA, hardhit%, barrel%, pop time, etc.). He's also six years younger and has a much better chance of maintaining that performance this year than d'Arnaud.
 
tululush said:
Murphy extension incoming. Who else needs to be extended? I guess they could try and re-sign Fried again (assuming they've already tried). But if they're not going to spend the money on free agents then they'll likely continue to invest in their current players like they've been doing.
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A Murphy extension would happen next year due to luxury tax implications.
 
Enscheff said:
Swanson hasn't changed as a hitter in the last 4 years. The seasons he's had a high BABIP around .350 (2020, 2022) have been above average offensive seasons, and the seasons he's had a low BABIP around .300 (2019, 2021) have been below average seasons. He is what he is at this point, and his overall production is as the mercy of season-to-season BABIP variation. He should be valued as a 3+ win player, and that value certainly doesn't warrant the contract he is likely to get.
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What is the current going rate for a single WAR? I ask bc I'm curious what you think AA has offered/deemed Dansby to be worth per year/over the life of a contract.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
everyone keeps on and on about Murphy being so much better. I am just not a believer.

Murphy's avg EV has been going down every year and sits at 88.7 (above average, but not by much) but couple that with his 43% GB rate and I think he is going to regress very quickly. Maybe he maintains his EV as he ages.. maybe he starts to slap some more line drives... maybe I am over thinking the fact that catchers defense is minimalized with the new pitch clock and throw over rule. Runners are going to feast on every catcher. But personally, give me the better offensive catcher over the 'defensive' catcher any day of the week. Especially when we already had the better offensive catcher and 4 other prospects that could have been used another way.
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Murphy events for EV readings...
2021: 79 (92.2)
2022: 282 (89.2)
2023: 419 (88.7)

WC...
2021: 110 (92.5)
2022: 232 (90.4)

Is it a coincidence that both players' EV went down with more events?
 
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