Official official offseason thread

Russ2dollas said:
While we are flipping out about the Mets...has anyone looked at the projections?

CF: Harris 4.8 (114 games, no sitting vs LH)/ Nimmo 5.4...........Slight advantage Mets? I think push but I love harris.
LF: Rosario -1.1/ Marte 3.......big advantage Mets
RF: Acuna 2.2/Canha 2.8........Big advantage Braves
3b: Riley 5.5/Correa 6.3.....Advantage Mets
SS: Open 1? Down from 5.5/ Lindor 6.8.........Big advantage Mets
2B: Albies 1.1 (64 games)/ McNeil 5.9.......Is he 2B or OF? I think this is a wash if Ozzie is Ozzie (even with his splits and OBP issues)
1B: Olson 3.1/Alonso 4........I think Olson is a better player but Push
C: TDA 3.9........big advantage Braves
DH: Contreras 2.4, Ozuna -0.6


Bench: Grissom 0.7 (41 games), Arcia 0.7 (68 games)

Not doing all of it....
Pitchers they have a better top 2 if healthy, but those guys are old and not that much better than Max IMO. I think starters is a push. I think our pen is better but they have the better closer.

Teams look pretty even to me. Slight advantage Mets as of now. An impact bat at SS, LF or DH could put the braves over the top.

I do think the braves have more upside. Nimmo, McNeil, Alonso, Canha and Marte are solid players but I think are on the down slide. Older, have some Babip luck.

I think the braves have guys who could be stars in Harris, Acuna, Albies, Riley, Olson and Murphy. Mets have stars in Lindor and Correa. Pitching stars Mets have Verlander, Scherzer and Diaz. Max is a star for us. Strider could be.
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I have. ZIPS isn't out for everybody but Steamer is. And before the Correa signing Steamer had the Braves as the best team in the NL with the Mets and Dodgers right behind. Correa would put the Mets above the Braves but this is very similar to last year where the Braves and Mets were projected to be neck and neck with each other which is how it ended up. Both teams did play above their projections last year. In the end it's likely going to come down to health and maybe who plays better head to head.
 
msstate7 said:
Why aren't the angels trading him?
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Because they want to make the playoffs? I know it's funny to meme on the Angels but with the expanded playoffs it wouldn't take much for them to get in. If things go south then there is no doubt he gets moved at the deadline.
 
thewupk said:
I have. ZIPS isn't out for everybody but Steamer is. And before the Correa signing Steamer had the Braves as the best team in the NL with the Mets and Dodgers right behind. Correa would put the Mets above the Braves but this is very similar to last year where the Braves and Mets were projected to be neck and neck with each other which is how it ended up. Both teams did play above their projections last year. In the end it's likely going to come down to health and maybe who plays better head to head.
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Thank you.

That was my thought. Mets are being called a super team, but I think they are basically the same as the Braves.

Braves are younger and have more room for improvement IMO. Mets have some significant age and injury history on the roster.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Thank you.

That was my thought. Mets are being called a super team, but I think they are basically the same as the Braves.

Braves are younger and have more room for improvement IMO. Mets have some significant age and injury history on the roster.
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If the Braves spend money no one catch us for the next 8 years.
 
ixiXSolidXixi said:
If the Braves spend money no one catch us for the next 8 years.
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We have. The Braves have spent a butt load on extending the incredible hit date on fielding prospects at the exact positions of needs sans SS. I was hoping Malloy was going to be our next WTF moment in LF.

The Mets have to spend 300+ Mikki on this year to simply buy a team. Reminds of the lakers days when shaq/Kobe/Peyton/Malone were supposed to own the NBA.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
We have. The Braves have spent a butt load on extending the incredible hit date on fielding prospects at the exact positions of needs sans SS. I was hoping Malloy was going to be our next WTF moment in LF.

The Mets have to spend 300+ Mikki on this year to simply buy a team. Reminds of the lakers days when shaq/Kobe/Peyton/Malone were supposed to own the NBA.
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I agree that we have spent money.

Mets are spending money like we would have to in 5-7 years when these extensions run out. I don't think we'll be the team paying for mid 30s and 40s stars like the Mets. That is what Enscheff is talking about with contention windows.

But we are paying for our stars in the 20s. We have to hope we draft and develop some more.

My only concern with payment is having scrubs on the team. We should not have a projection of 1 WAR from LF, DH, SS IMO. I think we are cheaping out on LF and DH. Maybe they really do believe in Grissom as a SS. We can disagree but they've been good evaluating their own guys. But we should be able to get someone like Drury and we are not. But I can't call us cheap.
 
I know this might be contra to certain advanced stats on WAR, etc. but i do wonder if there is some under-valuing going on of truly elite hitters vs. positional adjusted contracts.

We are in an unprecedented era of $200mm-$300mm contracts having gone out to guys (mostly short-stops) viewed as elite players - though ironically not necessarily elite hitters. The Lindor's of the world valued at 5-6 WAR because of defense and position adjusted hitting, etc. Swanson included. Or even in Correa case - he is a career 830 ops hitter, certainly a very good hitter but far from spectacular - and at 3rd base he is even further diluted. He might be a good defender there but just look at his offensive figures vs. as an example a Riley.

Just ironic because none of these guys sniff 900 ops types of levels. I'm sure its accurate overall (the advanced stats typically are accurate) but still an interesting one to me.

Are you better off going that route (i.e. investing 200mm in a Swanson, $300mm in a Correa) vs. going closer to replacement level at non-offensive positions and loading up on hitting at traditionally positions.

I at least like that the Braves cornerstone deals (really Acuna and Riley) are not only positionally adjusted great players, but truly just elite level hitters. Olson ideally would be in that convo as well if not for last year (but in a normal year, same story - he's at a good offensive position, but should profile as an 850-900 ops with 30-40 bombs
 
Russ2dollas said:
I agree that we have spent money.

Mets are spending money like we would have to in 5-7 years when these extensions run out. I don't think we'll be the team paying for mid 30s and 40s stars like the Mets. That is what Enscheff is talking about with contention windows.

But we are paying for our stars in the 20s. We have to hope we draft and develop some more.

My only concern with payment is having scrubs on the team. We should not have a projection of 1 WAR from LF, DH, SS IMO. I think we are cheaping out on LF and DH. Maybe they really do believe in Grissom as a SS. We can disagree but they've been good evaluating their own guys. But we should be able to get someone like Drury and we are not. But I can't call us cheap.
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The thing is we aren't cheaping out on LF and DH. We are paying Ozuna and Rosario a combined 25 million. Moves like that, when they don't work out, will cause problems and create black holes in the lineup.
 
thewupk said:
It should be a very good year regardless. Braves have a high chance of having 6 position players with 3.5 WAR or higher.
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Key for the rotation will be Kyle Wright.

We are at the point to not expect anything at a base level from Soroka. But Wright has to get close to 2022 performance.
 
The Chosen One said:
I think Eddie bounces back. He'll get close to 2021 Second Half Eddie numbers. Ozuna it's hail mary.
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I could see both having slight bounce backs.
Rosario was injured most of last year. Being healthy should improve him slightly.

Ozuna still hits the ball hard. His babip was around a career low last year. If he gets some babip luck he could easily bounce back to a league average hitter.
 
Russ2dollas said:
My only concern with payment is having scrubs on the team. We should not have a projection of 1 WAR from LF, DH, SS IMO. I think we are cheaping out on LF and DH. Maybe they really do believe in Grissom as a SS. We can disagree but they've been good evaluating their own guys. But we should be able to get someone like Drury and we are not. But I can't call us cheap.
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We can be skeptical of these projections, but as of no system I've seen has the Braves projected for 1 WAR at SS. Steamer has Arcía nearly at 1 fwar in part-time action at SS, with another 2.5 fwar from Grissom; we're still waiting for Zips to drop, but it's apparently even rosier on Grissom. Would be huge if we see 2023 anywhere close to that.

We're decidedly stacked with scrubs are LF and DH, though, which is definitely a concern.
 
Hudson2 said:
The Mets do have Scherzers 42 million coming off the books next year so they could just give that to Ohtani. Crazy. Alonso is gonna need a contract soon too.
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Scherzer has a player option that he'll probably exercise.
 
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