Official Offseason Thread

Carp said:
I think we are "in" on MadBum the same way we were "in" on Manny/Harper last off-season. If he's willing to take a shorter contract at a higher AAV, I think AA would absolutely do it (may be 2/50 or something along those lines). But I would be flabbergasted, to say the least, if AA were to give MadBum 4/5 years at ~20 million in AAV.

If MadBum goes the DK route and prices himself out of the market, I'm sure we'll be have the same interest we had in DK last June.
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I still think AA wants not part of MadBum and that has been the actual case since last July. Any GM with half a brain can look at Bumgarner's injury history, his concerning metrics, and his awful home/away splits and know that he is a mistake waiting to happen. I can't wait until some other team actually does decide to give him 100+ million dollars so this rumor will finally die. I really hope its a team like the Phillies.
 
striker42 said:
Compared to Bryant, Riley is spare parts.

Also, I think the Cubs could probably slow play it and get a haul for Bryant. There are lots of teams looking for a third base slugger and those that miss out on Rendon and JD might get into a bidding war over Bryant.
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Nah teams aren't stupid and there have to be teams that can actually give a haul to have a bidding war (most of the teams interested or needing a 3rd baseman simply don't have the prospect capital to get into a bidding war)... Braves are one of the few that can actually give major league ready talent which is what the Cubs are seeking.
 
striker42 said:
Compared to Bryant, Riley is spare parts.

Also, I think the Cubs could probably slow play it and get a haul for Bryant. There are lots of teams looking for a third base slugger and those that miss out on Rendon and JD might get into a bidding war over Bryant.
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And obviously Bryant compared with Riley... Riley is a spare part... that's only half the story though. The Cubs desperately need to shed payroll... need to slot someone in to play 3rd who's MLB ready, and Riley is making peanuts for tons of years while Bryant is slotted to make $20 million the next one or two years. When you add those factors, their actual value is much closer than you are giving credit for. Especially for a team that has to shed that payroll.

Fan prospect evaluation is hilarious... a year removed from a top 30 prospect who has had some MLB success and he's a spare part. Yet a prospect who has zero MLB experience is an equal? Do you realize how silly that sounds? That would make Pache even more spare parts I guess with your logic.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I still think AA wants not part of MadBum and that has been the actual case since last July. Any GM with half a brain can look at Bumgarner's injury history, his concerning metrics, and his awful home/away splits and know that he is a mistake waiting to happen. I can't wait until some other team actually does decide to give him 100+ million dollars so this rumor will finally die. I really hope its a team like the Phillies.
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What about Bumgarner's injury history scares you?
 
BeanieAntics said:
I still think AA wants not part of MadBum and that has been the actual case since last July. Any GM with half a brain can look at Bumgarner's injury history, his concerning metrics, and his awful home/away splits and know that he is a mistake waiting to happen. I can't wait until some other team actually does decide to give him 100+ million dollars so this rumor will finally die. I really hope its a team like the Phillies.
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MadBum's velocity and spin rate on his fastball were back to peak levels though, which is very encouraging. Not saying I want the Braves to sign him, but I think predicting his future performance goes a little beyond his home/away splits.
 
striker42 said:
Compared to Bryant, Riley is spare parts.

Also, I think the Cubs could probably slow play it and get a haul for Bryant. There are lots of teams looking for a third base slugger and those that miss out on Rendon and JD might get into a bidding war over Bryant.
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Bryant is a 4-5 win player who is getting very expensive in arbitration. He's worth about 50 million dollars in prospect capital. The Cubs aren't getting Pache for him and if they wanted Drew Waters, then that would be basically all they got unless they included another name like Happ or something. Austin Riley is a perfectly reasonable centerpiece in a Bryant deal. He's a young, cheap, controllable player with a top prospect pedigree who has shown some "flashes" at the MLB level, but has very concerning flaws in his game. He's high risk for sure, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value or can be considered "spare parts" relative to Bryant... it doesn't work that way.

If the Cubs ask for more than Waters straight up, Riley plus a pitcher not named Anderson, or something else in that ~50 million dollar range (plus maybe a ~10% contender's premium), then we should be out on him. Check down to other 3rd base options who can be had for fair value. Personally, I would still prefer a smaller package for Eduardo Escobar. I think he could be had for a significantly smaller prospect package (I have Escobar at a ~30-35 million dollar valuation; 4.5-5 wins over two years for 14.5 million dollars) and would be ~30 million dollars cheaper than Bryant over the next two years, potentially allowing us to grab a better outfielder.
 
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UNCBlue012 said:
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They match up really well with Chicago, IMO.
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Yeah Nats match up very well, though you wonder why they wouldn't just sign Rendon if they are interested in another expensive 3b. I mean I know this all "in the event they don't sign Rendon" but it just seems dumb to let Rendon walk and then trade valuable prospects for a guy that will make a similar amount over the next 2 years.
 
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Even if the salaries were the same, I would rather have Newcomb or Wright in the rotation next year than Bumgarner. It surprises me that anyone can look at his performance outside of the most pitcher friendly park last year and still be optimistic about his performance for next year.
 
Carp said:
MadBum's velocity and spin rate on his fastball were back to peak levels though, which is very encouraging. Not saying I want the Braves to sign him, but I think predicting his future performance goes a little beyond his home/away splits.
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poor home/road splits for two years in a row. That's not a small sample. That's actual performance and not something I'm willing to gamble stupid money on.
 
thethe said:
What about Bumgarner's injury history scares you?
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The fact that he's a 30 year old pitcher with any significant injury history should concern anyone. Add in the fact that he's already logged over 1800 innings in the MLB and you get a portion of his risk. Arms don't last forever.

But the far more significant risk is his xwOBA being in the range of an average number 4, continually trending down with a very slight rebound this year plus the fact that he has been consistently worse away from San Francisco. I mean, if you look at his home/away splits over the past 4-5 years it is plain as day. He needs significant help from that ballpark to be the pitcher that you think he is.
 
Carp said:
MadBum's velocity and spin rate on his fastball were back to peak levels though, which is very encouraging. Not saying I want the Braves to sign him, but I think predicting his future performance goes a little beyond his home/away splits.
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Its not simply his home/away splits. There are a ton of predictive metrics out there, and most of the ones that I've seen are not very optimistic. CERTAINLY not optimistic enough to justify giving Bumgarner anywhere close to a 5 year deal or an AAV of 20+ million dollars. The fact that people are saying the Wheeler deal sets a precedent for him is blowing my mind.
 
Jaw said:
Even if the salaries were the same, I would rather have Newcomb or Wright in the rotation next year than Bumgarner. It surprises me that anyone can look at his performance outside of the most pitcher friendly park last year and still be optimistic about his performance for next year.
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Obviously a big difference in money, but please god no Newk in the rotation. I think Wilson is the guy at the 5 spot.
 
So... if you could make a move for an under 30 y/o starter with control and had to include Ian Anderson in the deal, who would it be?
 
BeanieAntics said:
Its not simply his home/away splits. There are a ton of predictive metrics out there, and most of the ones that I've seen are not very optimistic. CERTAINLY not optimistic enough to justify giving Bumgarner anywhere close to a 5 year deal or an AAV of 20+ million dollars. The fact that people are saying the Wheeler deal sets a precedent for him is blowing my mind.
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All the dumb teams are going "ohh, veteran presents! Big game pitcher! Postseason track record!"

We should not join the list of dumb teams.
 
CrazyTrain said:
I think Bum is a f'n ox of a man who is going to be doing what he's doing now for many years to come, but I wouldn't sign him for what I'm seeing thrown around.
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This is an argument that is persuasive. Hard to stomach throwing that much money at a pitcher at his age but he seems to me like the type that will last. If not for his injuries the conversation would be closer to 200 million and 7 years.
 
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