Official Offseason Thread

I'm not a fan of selling low on Inciarte, but using him plus a couple arms to get Bryant doesn't really qualify as selling low.

Another addition to the OF would obviously need to happen in this scenario.

I think AA has plan B ready, he’s just waiting for JD to decide what he’s gonna do first. No way we trade Fried but I could see Wright. If Ender goes in a deal I hope we get Happ back.
 
I'm not a fan of selling low on Inciarte, but using him plus a couple arms to get Bryant doesn't really qualify as selling low.

Another addition to the OF would obviously need to happen in this scenario.

It would take creativity but if we traded for Bryant (2 years only), I would take a serious run at signing Ozuna....MadBum is only getting paid $6m in his first season in Arizona, if we could do something similar, i'd have to jump all over that

Acuna CF
Albies 2B
Freeman 1B
Bryant 3B
Ozuna LF
Neck RF
d'Arnaud C
Swanson SS

Rotation: Soroka, Fried, Hamels, Folty, Wright/Wilson/Anderson/Newk

Bench: Culberson, Flowers, Duvall, Camargo

Pen: Melancon, Smith, Greene, Martin, O'Day, Newk (prefer to keep him here), Jackson, Webb, Sobotka

That would be a team set up to win
 
The value of opt clauses has already been detailed (at least roughly). At the time of signing, which is when the valuation matters, it is a clear bonus for the player. Whatever may or may not happen in the future is already baked into this evaluation, and looking at it as if the best case scenario is going to happen is not how risk analysis/pricing is done.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/

The Arenado extension was worse than the Machado and Harper FA contracts the moment it was signed, and now the Rox have wasted the only cheap year of his deal.

An opt out literally removes all possibility of a long term value for the team, in exchange for limiting the total downside via a lower total guarantee.



Thanks, I was hoping for an article. I'm going to have to read that one several times or at least with more concentration than I just did.
 
It would take creativity but if we traded for Bryant (2 years only), I would take a serious run at signing Ozuna....MadBum is only getting paid $6m in his first season in Arizona, if we could do something similar, i'd have to jump all over that

Acuna CF
Albies 2B
Freeman 1B
Bryant 3B
Ozuna LF
Neck RF
d'Arnaud C
Swanson SS

Rotation: Soroka, Fried, Hamels, Folty, Wright/Wilson/Anderson/Newk

Bench: Culberson, Flowers, Duvall, Camargo

Pen: Melancon, Smith, Greene, Martin, O'Day, Newk (prefer to keep him here), Jackson, Webb, Sobotka

That would be a team set up to win

That team wins the NL imo and is a strong team for the WS. We could always trade for Haniger if we sign JD and have a similar outcome.
 
Thanks, I was hoping for an article. I'm going to have to read that one several times or at least with more concentration than I just did.

He gets pretty deep in the weeds trying to put numbers on each possibility, but the main idea of the opt out having considerable value to the player due to shifting risk to the team is pretty straightforward

Estimates were that and opt out was worth roughly 5%-10% of the contract value, and that article reaches the same conclusion. There is a similar article for Coles deal.
 
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It would take creativity but if we traded for Bryant (2 years only), I would take a serious run at signing Ozuna....MadBum is only getting paid $6m in his first season in Arizona, if we could do something similar, i'd have to jump all over that

Acuna CF
Albies 2B
Freeman 1B
Bryant 3B
Ozuna LF
Neck RF
d'Arnaud C
Swanson SS

Rotation: Soroka, Fried, Hamels, Folty, Wright/Wilson/Anderson/Newk

Bench: Culberson, Flowers, Duvall, Camargo

Pen: Melancon, Smith, Greene, Martin, O'Day, Newk (prefer to keep him here), Jackson, Webb, Sobotka

That would be a team set up to win

That’s an opening day payroll of $160M-$165M, but would be pretty awesome if AA has that kind of cash available.
 
Trading for KB then signing Ozuna would be great, but would probably have to move Greene or MM to cut payroll a little bit. If money is no object, **** it, trade KB, get Ozuna, add a bench bat, and go to war.

I do think we "should" know something on JD this week given front offices are closed next week.
 
Trading for KB then signing Ozuna would be great, but would probably have to move Greene or MM to cut payroll a little bit. If money is no object, **** it, trade KB, get Ozuna, add a bench bat, and go to war.

I do think we "should" know something on JD this week given front offices are closed next week.

I'm not so sure we do. There hasn't been a peep out of either camp. I'm not sure this gets done in the next four days.
 
Trading for KB then signing Ozuna would be great, but would probably have to move Greene or MM to cut payroll a little bit. If money is no object, **** it, trade KB, get Ozuna, add a bench bat, and go to war.

I do think we "should" know something on JD this week given front offices are closed next week.

Agreed we might have to trade Greene to make this scenario happen. However, if Liberty is truly following their statement of saying "we are going for it" and we are "going to spend", then maybe they sign off on this....I promise you the ticket sales this year would increase big time if something like this were to happen.
 
I'm not so sure we do. There hasn't been a peep out of either camp. I'm not sure this gets done in the next four days.

Wouldn't be so sure about that.

Pretty clearly down to us and Washington at this point (since neither the Dodgers or Rangers appear to be willing to tack on the 4th year), and the difference in money at this point is likely to be negligible. Cost of living in Atlanta vs. cost in D. C.? Georgia state taxes vs. fees in the District? Belief that one team has a better chance to win when considering one's likely facing the typical letdown coming off a Championship when the other's window now seems to be wide open?

Far from any type of "guarantee" that something's about to give, but the overwhelming majority of past free-agents have admitted that if the process were up to them they'd have their decisions made by Christmas. Usually leaves them with a couple weeks to take a family vacation before the kids have to go back to school, and roughly another month to get spring training living arrangements squared away and house or apartment hunting in a new city completed (depending on whether they plan to have kids switch schools mid-year, etc.) before things start to get hectic with camps opening and those types of things become rushed and/or headaches.

The "best offers" are probably already on the table other than minor tweaking, and very well might have been for a week or so now - so it's probably down to just making the decision - and there's a lot less noise if you do that before you've got a house full of family AND "friends" hounding you about it while acting like they don't mean to bother you. Plus Josh needs to line up a loan - he's got to pay for the Maserati he bought his Mom after all!!!
 
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It would take creativity but if we traded for Bryant (2 years only), I would take a serious run at signing Ozuna....MadBum is only getting paid $6m in his first season in Arizona, if we could do something similar, i'd have to jump all over that

Acuna CF
Albies 2B
Freeman 1B
Bryant 3B
Ozuna LF
Neck RF
d'Arnaud C
Swanson SS

Rotation: Soroka, Fried, Hamels, Folty, Wright/Wilson/Anderson/Newk

Bench: Culberson, Flowers, Duvall, Camargo

Pen: Melancon, Smith, Greene, Martin, O'Day, Newk (prefer to keep him here), Jackson, Webb, Sobotka

That would be a team set up to win

Seems like a good roster with 1 exception. I believe MLB instituted a 13 pitcher limit thru Aug 31, then 1 additional pitcher when roster expands to 28 for Sept to end of regular season.

See article at for details.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_rosters#Changes_effective_2020
 
I'm not so sure we do. There hasn't been a peep out of either camp. I'm not sure this gets done in the next four days.

AA doesnt leak anything, so i dont know what you'd hear. I just dont know if he wants to wait 2+ more weeks to decide.
 
AA doesnt leak anything, so i dont know what you'd hear. I just dont know if he wants to wait 2+ more weeks to decide.

I should have expanded upon that statement. I know AA doesn't leak anything, but we haven't heard anything about JD being linked to anyone other than general interest from Washington. And it's basically been a dozen general tweets from Jon Heyman. All we know is we're interested and seemingly Washington is interested. Nobody has indicated years or $ amounts. It's just very very quiet.
 
WIll
12:46 Is it plausible (given that Donaldson signs elsewhere) that Bryant goes to the Braves in exchange for Max Fried and Ender Enciarte? Seems like this would be the type of haul the Cubs are looking for.

AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49 Don't think it's universal, but there's a compelling case that Fried could have more trade value than Bryant at some point in 2020.

5 years of Fried (1 minimum, 4 arb) of what looks like a mid-rotation guy (but sure, just one good year so far, TJ in the past)
vs.
2 years of Bryant (probably 2, but we'll see)

I think Bryant has the edge now, but if Fried puts up another strong half-season and Bryant gets down to 1.5 years of control, I could see this flipping.

Also, I don't see ATL cutting bait on one of the two SP (Soroka is the other) that emerged from their glut of young arms. Much more likely they trade two of the less proven ones than Fried.
12:51 Inciarte makes perfect sense for a Bryant trade, though. Probably matters what CHC is trying to do post-Bryant. If it's a power rebuild, I think Inciarte plus some upper level pitching from the Anderson/Wright/Touki/Wilson etc group could make sense
12:52 ATL's strength on the farm is upper minors depth, so this would eat into most of it but also get them a clear window and clear out the 40-man/AAA without blowing out the payroll with a mega deal

Yeah I gotta think there is zero chance Fried goes in a trade. I'd gladly move Folty though. Folty, Ender, and Riley too much on our end?
 
I'd move Wright or Anderson for KB, Fried is a no go for me, and Soroka is basically untouchable.
 
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