Official Offseason Thread

nsacpi said:
Frazier on a one-year deal is better than most of the options that have been discussed around here.
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Lol you’re drunk. Camargo and Riley could both outhit Frazier if given a full year. Not that I want to do that, but why would we invest in someone who is washed up and would produce less than what we already have and cost $$$ that could be used elsewhere? Whatever the question is, Todd Frazier is not the answer.
 
tululush said:
Camargo and Riley could both outhit Frazier if given a full year.
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They could or they could not.

2019 OPS
Frazier .772
Riley .750
Camargo .663

2020 Steamer Projection for OPS
Frazier .783
Riley .783
Camargo .763

To baldly assert something does not to make it so.

To baldly assert is not an effective way to make an argument.

And a lot of things "could" happen.
ymmv
 
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nsacpi said:
Frazier on a one-year deal is better than most of the options that have been discussed around here.
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He's an aging veteran than can still hit lefties but isn't good enough to start at 3B on a contender. I would agree a one year deal for him is 100 times better than the idea of Longoria.

There were, probably still are, cheap mediocre options like him lying around.
 
Southcack77 said:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marcell-ozuna-542303?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb
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Thanks, I wasn't aware of this one. So compared to his best season in 2017, he barrelled a higher percentage of batted balls, had a higher exit velo, and struck out less, yet BABIPed into worse production. One thing that jumps out at me, though, is that every year except 2017 (when he had a .455 BABIP), he has underperformed his expected numbers, to the tune of 18 points on his career line. I would assume that's in part due to park effects, since IIRC both Miami and St. Louis depress homers.
 
nsacpi said:
They could or they could not.

2019 OPS
Frazier .772
Riley .750
Camargo .663

2020 Steamer Projection for OPS
Frazier .783
Riley .783
Camargo .763

To baldly assert something is not to make it so.

To baldly assert is not an effective way to make an argument.

ymmv
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I’m not paying 5 million for redundant production (what he received from Texas). Especially considering that he’s likely to continue to regress this season. Easy pass.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
So did JD. Lol
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Giving JD 4 years at a high salary is contrary to AA’s established MO since he got to Atlanta. He’s made a point to acquire high AAV guys on short 1-2 year contracts. Bryant fits that like a glove.

In terms of a trade partner, the Cubs are ideal because they seemingly disproportionately need young close to the majors starting to pitching.

I know Bryant doesn’t check all the boxes because of his defense, but there’s the incentives are aligned to perfectly for a deal not to happen.
 
Southcack77 said:
He's an aging veteran than can still hit lefties but isn't good enough to start at 3B on a contender. I would agree a one year deal for him is 100 times better than the idea of Longoria.

There were, probably still are, cheap mediocre options like him lying around.
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A lot turns on price.

Price (whether it be $ or prospects), years...those are the coins of the realm in evaluating any deal

I like Frazier on the contract he signed for the Rangers.

I like the signings the gnats made on Cabrera, Kendrick and Castro. I'd take any one of those or combination thereof.

The gnats just won a WS with Kendrick at first and Cabrera at second. Many ways to construct a winning team.
 
Other than Zobrist (as a REALLY CHEAP fall back), I'd look to the Red Sox. It seems its late in the game and they still need to shed payroll badly.
 
Snowman said:
Thanks, I wasn't aware of this one. So compared to his best season in 2017, he barrelled a higher percentage of batted balls, had a higher exit velo, and struck out less, yet BABIPed into worse production. One thing that jumps out at me, though, is that every year except 2017 (when he had a .455 BABIP), he has underperformed his expected numbers, to the tune of 18 points on his career line. I would assume that's in part due to park effects, since IIRC both Miami and St. Louis depress homers.
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Walk rate and launch angle both career bests as well without sacrificing any hard hits. Maybe the park played into it.

Atlanta plays pretty neutral, I think.

He's no sure bet to break out, but I think he's a pretty decent bet to maintain production and there is a pretty good chance he'll have his career year during his next contract. I wouldn't be against going 4 years. That probably means he's looking for 5 or 6 the way things are working out.
 
striker42 said:
I know not giving him 4 years at $25 million per was a good decision long term. He's at an age that he could fall of the cliff at any moment and we don't have the payroll to absorb that kind of a contract. Still, Donaldson is going to be hard to replace.

Kris Bryant could replace him. As could Arenado. However, the price tag for either would be pretty steep and Bryant could end up being a free agent after this season if he wins his grievance.

Ozuna would be okay but Donaldson had a fWAR of 4.9 last year. Ozuna's was just 2.6. You have to go back to 2017 to get to a time where Ozuna was in the neighborhood of what Donaldson did last year.

Castellanos is a solid player as well, but again, he's probably a 2.5-3.0 fWAR player. That's still a pretty big drop from what we got from Donaldson.

There really isn't a good solution and never has been one. The choice was either take the risk on Donaldson, likely overpay in a trade, or settle for lesser production.
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Great post.

Kudos for focusing on the crux of the problem. We need to replace 4.9 fWar, not Josh Donaldson. There’s a very strong likelihood that 2020 Josh Donaldson isn’t the answer to replacing 2019 Josh Donaldson.

Given the improvements on the fringes of the roster (bullpen, catcher, starting rotation, internal improvement from young players offsetting decline from older players), we can probably settle for a slight downgrade at 3B (3-4 WAR) without taking a step back.

I suspect the Braves probably make a trade, but I also wouldn’t be against waiting out the market to see if Ozuna/Castellanos eventually settle for something below market value or a short term contract that allows the Braves to pivot financially in 1-2 years.
 
tululush said:
I’m not paying 5 million for redundant production (what he received from Texas). Especially considering that he’s likely to continue to regress this season. Easy pass.
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Frazier put up 1.9 fWAR in 133 games in 2019, but he's also missed significant time each of the last 2 seasons. I think Frazier is much more likely to be better than either Camargo or Riley in 2020. How much better he might be and whether or not that difference is worth 5 million is certainly up for debate, but it Riley and Camargo would still be here in such a scenario, so bringing in an extra player and having them as insurance wouldn't be the worst idea in the world. It's less than ideal, but not terrible.
 
chop2chip said:
Great post.

Kudos for focusing on the crux of the problem. We need to replace 4.9 fWar, not Josh Donaldson. There’s a very strong likelihood that 2020 Josh Donaldson isn’t the answer to replacing 2019 Josh Donaldson.

Given the improvements on the fringes of the roster (bullpen, catcher, starting rotation, internal improvement from young players offsetting decline from older players), we can probably settle for a slight downgrade at 3B (3-4 WAR) without taking a step back.

I suspect the Braves probably make a trade, but I also wouldn’t be against waiting out the market to see if Ozuna/Castellanos eventually settle for something below market value or a short term contract that allows the Braves to pivot financially in 1-2 years.
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We spent $18M on Hamels. It is not especially good value. But it IS a one year deal.

I think those are the choices a good GM makes. Hamels on a 1 year deal vs Donaldson on a 4 year deal.

It is the right call. And some of the "lost production" at third will be made up by production from Hamels, Smith, Martin. These things have to be looked at from a global perspective rather than focusing on production at a particular position.
 
Marte has been in my sights for a long time and glad to see others jump in on him. Quick tidbit from DOB about Marte vs Bryant. Granted it's OF vs 3B but IMO the goal should be to fill the bat not the position.


David O'Brien
@DOBrienATL
·
47m
By the way, because I just checked out of curiosity: Over past two seasons, Starling Marté had 6.6 bWAR to Kris Bryant’s 5.5.

And this David O'Brien
@DOBrienATL
·
32m
Marté has a career .330 average and .879 OPS in 495 plate appearances at cleanup spot.
 
Southcack77 said:
I guess I don't understand why the Braves would also be asking for Archer in a Marte deal. He's not really the kind of salary that it makes a whole lot of sense to try and dump and it's questionable whether the Braves really need someone like him right now. I think it would absolutely be reasonable for some club to take a shot at him returning to a mid 3 FIP at 8m. Particularly one that is confident in its pitching management.
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If Pitt admits a full rebuild then Archer is totally useless to them even if he had already returned to the projected ace he once was. Seems likely to me that getting Marte would be much easier should we take on Archer's contract as well. Also would make it easier to move Ender or less prospects. Which ever works for both teams.
 
i love people saying "so and so is not a starter on a contender." contenders win with all kinds of players, and without stars at every position. Frazier could absolutely be a starter on a contender if the rest of the roster is good. i have more faith in him for next year than i do Riley or Camargo in a starting role.
 
salmagundy said:
Marte has been in my sights for a long time and glad to see others jump in on him. Quick tidbit from DOB about Marte vs Bryant. Granted it's OF vs 3B but IMO the goal should be to fill the bat not the position.


David O'Brien
@DOBrienATL
·
47m
By the way, because I just checked out of curiosity: Over past two seasons, Starling Marté had 6.6 bWAR to Kris Bryant’s 5.5.

And this David O'Brien
@DOBrienATL
·
32m
Marté has a career .330 average and .879 OPS in 495 plate appearances at cleanup spot.
Click to expand...

That's a pretty terrible take on DOB's part. Bryant missed 60 games in 2018 due to injury. There is zero doubt who is the better player when healthy. While it's true that being more healthy over the last 2 seasons is an advantage for Marte, you must also consider that he's 31 now while Bryant is 28. If you're betting on 1 player to be more healthy and productive over the next 2 years, you're taking Bryant all day.
 
Super said:
i love people saying "so and so is not a starter on a contender." contenders win with all kinds of players, and without stars at every position. Frazier could absolutely be a starter on a contender if the rest of the roster is good. i have more faith in him for next year than i do Riley or Camargo in a starting role.
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Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera would like everyone to take a look at their WS rings.
 
Another potential 3rd acquisition if the bat is found at the cost of Riley or Camargo is moved would be Michael Chavis. Should be able to get him for a 5-10 pitching prospect.
 
Super said:
i love people saying "so and so is not a starter on a contender." contenders win with all kinds of players, and without stars at every position. Frazier could absolutely be a starter on a contender if the rest of the roster is good. i have more faith in him for next year than i do Riley or Camargo in a starting role.
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Over the last three seasons, Markakis, Frazier, D'Arnaud, Swanson, and Inciarte have produced 4 years with a wRC+ greater than 100 between them. The highest being Markakis's 115 in 2018.

That's (hypothetically) the 4-8 in the Braves lineup a lot of nights.

that isn't good enough.
 
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