Official Offseason Thread

The Rockies may have blown it. Sounds like they just dangled him out there without any reasonable plan to actually move him.

Hopefully AA and crew see something they can work with in regards to Hernandez. Maybe the folks on this site who are good at dissecting stats can find something positive. The opportunity cost is certainly a real factor, but one that exists for any of our potential #5 starters.
 
This might mean that Arenado might be willing to waive his opt out to help facilitate a trade (still would require compensation on his end I am sure).

Ugly is good for the Braves. We are the type of team that can win a bidding for him.
 
Would love Arenado of course, but how much money do we need the Rockies to send to even make it feasible? He makes 35M per year, right?
 
If he would waive his NTC, if he can do that, AA better be on the front line for him.
 
I don’t see any teams paying a full market rate of 35 per year, the looming possibility of him opting out in 2 years while giving a haul for him. That package is very fair when you a account for my first 2 points. Only way one of Waters or Anderson is involved is if they they are eating a significant amount of money.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Rockies say Nolan is off the table and he responded: “There’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of,” Arenado said in a text. “You can quote that.”

Damn. He wants out.
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Here’s the smoke everyone has been looking for. The chances of a trade just went way up.
 
The Chosen One said:
That offer is not fair at all, only to a Braves homer is it fair.
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You also have to factor in his salary but yeah, i wouldnt say it's unfair though. If Arenado also wants out, Rockies have zero leverage.
 
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Hudson2 said:
I don’t see any teams paying a full market rate of 35 per year, the looming possibility of him opting out in 2 years while giving a haul for him. That package is very fair when you a account for my first 2 points. Only way one of Waters or Anderson is involved is if they they are eating a significant amount of money.
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1) Wright in his limited time up has been hit or miss more miss.
2) Wilson in his limited time up has been mostly been getting hit.
3) Riley cooled off big time and his plate discipline, K's, and swing and miss numbers would be a big worry for any GM looking to acquire him.
4) Inciarte what would they need him for? He's cheap but he's also been unlucky with injuries and he'll be a free agent in a year or two.

There has to be upside for a GM to want to pull the trigger on that deal. The only people who think that's a fair offer are Braves homers who overvalue these players way more than other teams do. They'd have control over Wilson and Wright but those two are getting hit in Atlanta right now do you think Colorado would believe they'd suddenly go to COORS and fulfill their potential?

Again, it's an asinine offer.
 
The Chosen One said:
First of all there's no way the Rockies would even take that offer.
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Are they covering 50% of his salary?

He’s simply not worth that much. Even if he’s a 6 WAR player the next two years, that’s maybe $30-40m in SV, and ensures he opts out; if he’s worse—say he declines with the bat away from Coors—it’s obviously less SV, and increases the chance he doesn’t opt-out, which is where all the downside risk lies.

Even if you downgrade Riley from 55 to 50 FV, that’s still almost $30m in value alone.

The Rockies may indeed insist on a haul, but they shouldn’t get one, and I really hope it’s not from Anthopoulos.
 
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jpx7 said:
Our brains are so cash-obsessed that “no risk” casually means “no financial risk (if he’s terrible in March)”. But you’re right: there is real risk, both fiscal (albeit small) and wins-wise, if he looks “good” in near-meaningless ST innings, but is ultimately the same pitcher he’s been since 2017.

Would’ve preferred Taijuan Walker as an upside play—both because there’s likely more upside, and because he doesn’t have a name that can cloud judgments.
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Bingo. Re-building teams really do have genuine no-risk flyers - sign a guy cheap, maybe he's good enough to trade for a C+ prospect, and if he's not then you just lose games, and you're going to do that anyway. For contending teams, innings and plate appearances have real value. Teams lose playoff berths because they give both to sub-replacement level players.
 
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