Dropping Keuchel(14 mil), Julio (11 mil), O'Dy(9 mil), and Swarzak (8 mil) garners 41 mil. Melancon at 14 mil(Cots salary for 2020) and Greene(Arby projection of 6+ mil) and you still have 20+ mil to help cover a Donaldson increase, trading for Marte and signing Grandal. A 130+ opening day payroll is not out of the question. 2019 was 115+ mil with 2018 final payroll of 136+ mil. 2019 final has not been published.
The Braves already have $63,559,375 committed to 2020. The only committed money to JT, Flowers, and Neck are buyouts at this time. If they pick up all 3 options, that number moves to 82,559,375. And this is before arby raises, which will likely represent roughly 20 million in payroll. That means, assuming an opening day payroll in the 130-140 million range, the Braves will likely only have around 30-35ish million to make roster moves this offseason.
There are certainly moves they could take to free up a little bit of money. Obviously, declining the options on any of JT, Neck, or Flowers is an easy way to free up some cash, though that also opens holes in the roster by doing so. Neck is quite clearly the weakest candidate in the group, as paying 6 million for a light hitting back-up OFer is not a luxury the Braves can afford. However, I have no faith that the Braves management will make this move since he has a $2 million buyout. Nevertheless, that 4 million saved could pay for a good chunk of Marte's 2020 salary, for instance. Cutting JT is another option if you think you can find a suitable replacement for a cheaper price. I highly doubt Flowers is deemed expendable with no other catcher on the roster at this time, so you can pencil in his 6 million.
Other ways to cut payroll is non-tendering some players. After Folty (who will clearly not get non-tendered) Adam Duvall, Luke Jackson, Charlie Culberson, and Shane Greene represent our most expensive non-tender candidates. I don''t think it's particularly likely that any of these 4 will be non-tendered, but I do think Shane Greene is the most likely of the group. He wasn't particularly great with us and 6 million is a lot for a team like us to commit to a non-closer. However, he likely has enough trade value that the option to non-tender him is probably a moot point. Given our BP issues this year, it also wouldn't surprise me to see us retain him for 2020.
JD, Grandal, and Marte seems very unlikely given a $130 million opening day payroll. JD and Grandal themselves will likely cost in excess of 40+ million. But Grandal, Marte, and Moose Tacos is definitely doable with some roster adjustments.
