Official Offseason Thread

[Enscheff]

I'm not giving up Riley. He needs a winter of working with Chipper. That kind of power just doesn't come around often. He only needs to learn what the strikezone is.

There were 125 MLB hitters in 2019 who posted average exit velocities higher than Riley on fly balls and line drives (minimum 25 such balls in play). Another 86 were within 1 mph. So yes, “that kind of power” comes along quite often.

What doesn’t come along often is a MLB player who swings and misses pitches in the zone as often as Riley did in 2019. That problem in the hit tool is going to end his career before it starts if he doesn’t figure out how to stop being a guess hitter.

 

[Super]

He only needs to learn what the strikezone is.

is that it?

 

[Super]

I'd do Inciarte, Wright and Weigel.

damn really???? giving up ALL THAT for one of the best players in the league? idk man.

 

[thewupk]

Hard pass from me. Where is Fried, Riley, and Anderson on that list? Much rather trade Waters than any of those 3, though Riley is pretty close to Waters.

I forgot about Anderson to be honest. I would not want to trade him. Fried isn't under 25. I'd move Riley real quick.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

You seldom see young guys like Riley come up and display talent like he showed the first 5 or 6 weeks. Unfortunately he fell off the cliff. Can anyone recall similar displays of talent and failure? I certainly hope AAs faith in Riley is justified.

 

[Super]

You seldom see young guys like Riley come up and display talent like he showed the first 5 or 6 weeks. Unfortunately he fell off the cliff. Can anyone recall similar displays of talent and failure? I certainly hope AAs faith in Riley is justified.

it was a display of good fortune more than anything else. as was pointed out all along, there were huge red flags even during the hot streak. you don't give up on him, but i think he has a long way to go still.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

You seldom see young guys like Riley come up and display talent like he showed the first 5 or 6 weeks. Unfortunately he fell off the cliff. Can anyone recall similar displays of talent and failure? I certainly hope AAs faith in Riley is justified.

Yes guys come up and feast on pitchers who have not learned how to get you out. Once the book on Riley came out, he was easy prey for the most part. Now he has to rewrite his book if he can. But that is a big if.

 

[Carp]

I forgot about Anderson to be honest. I would not want to trade him. Fried isn't under 25. I'd move Riley real quick.

I mean I'd also move Riley, but not Riley + Wright + others or something like that. Riley would have to be the main piece and they could have 2 others outside the top 10. I just can't see giving up a ton for a 1 year rental.

I mean I guess if you're building a package on under 25 guys that are talented but have lost a little of their luster like Touki and Wright, then I could see it. But otherwise, I'd pass.

 

[Carp]

You seldom see young guys like Riley come up and display talent like he showed the first 5 or 6 weeks. Unfortunately he fell off the cliff. Can anyone recall similar displays of talent and failure? I certainly hope AAs faith in Riley is justified.

Frenchy's rookie year was pretty similar in terms of tearing up the league until pitchers figured him out. Then his career took a pretty big nose dive after that. I mean, he was useful for awhile, but never a star.

 

[Enscheff]

You seldom see young guys like Riley come up and display talent like he showed the first 5 or 6 weeks. Unfortunately he fell off the cliff. Can anyone recall similar displays of talent and failure? I certainly hope AAs faith in Riley is justified.

I explained even at the peak of his hot streak why he was going to come crashing down to earth in a fiery ball of suck. The usual suspects with their heads in the sand didn't want to hear it, and then Riley crashed and burned exactly as expected.

Nothing changed between him being awesome and terrible other than luck and pitchers not throwing him fastball meat in fastball counts.

If AA can use him as the headliner for an impact player from a team fooled by Riley's insane first couple weeks at the MLB level, I hope he jumps at the chance.

 

[Pacheaholic]

damn really???? giving up ALL THAT for one of the best players in the league? idk man.

You're right, the Red Sox should throw in some financial flexibility since it is only one year of Betts.

 

[NYCBrave]

I explained even at the peak of his hot streak why he was going to come crashing down to earth in a fiery ball of suck. The usual suspects with their heads in the sand didn't want to hear it, and then Riley crashed and burned exactly as expected.

Nothing changed between him being awesome and terrible other than luck and pitchers not throwing him fastball meat in fastball counts.

If AA can use him as the headliner for an impact player from a team fooled by Riley's insane first couple weeks at the MLB level, I hope he jumps at the chance.

Just out of curiosity, how do you view Aaron Judge who struggled big time in his first 100 PA in the big leagues in 2016 and how he was able to bounce back. I mean he had a 44% K rate. obviously he became a star after that. But is there anything in Riley's profile that shows he can make a similar turnaround? Judge always had a way better BB rate

 

[Enscheff]

Just out of curiosity, how do you view Aaron Judge who struggled big time in his first 100 PA in the big leagues in 2016 and how he was able to bounce back. I mean he had a 44% K rate. obviously he became a star after that. But is there anything in Riley's profile that shows he can make a similar turnaround? Judge always had a way better BB rate

The differences between Judge and Riley are huge...

First, Judge has 80 grade power, whereas Riley has closer to 60 grade power. While Riley had a good 94.1 mph average exit velocity, Judge blew him away with a value of 100.2 in 2016. Comparing Riley's power to Judge's is completely laughable. Judge produces the most valuable contact in all of MLB.

Second, Riley's O-Swing% in 2019 was 41.3%, good for 22nd worst out of 320 hitters with 250+ Pas. Judges O-Swing% in 2016 was 33.6%, which would be somewhere in the middle of the pack, and it has since improved to ~25% in subsequent years. Judge's ability to identify bad pitches was far superior to Riley's, even when he was at his worst.

Third, Riley's Z-Contact% of 73.6% in 2019 ranked 3rd worst of those same 320 hitters, meaning Riley struggles greatly to make contact on strikes he decides to swing at. Not being able to make contact on strikes is a pretty big deal for a baseball player. Judges' Z-Contact% has been consistent at around 79% from day 1, and while still bad, better than Riley's...and always has been.

In short, Judge at his worst still hit the ball much harder than Riley, identified strikes much better than Riley, and made more contact than Riley.

The red flags for Riley are right red, and they have been there from the moment he took his first 50 PAs at the MLB level. He is a pure guess hitter, and until he improves upon the metrics I listed, there is no way he will stick at an MLB corner.

Can he improve those metrics? No idea, but I wouldn't bet against it from a talented 22 year old. Even if he can improve those metrics, it would be foolish to pencil him into the lineup for opening day 2020 until he shows positive signs.

 

[NYCBrave]

The differences between Judge and Riley are huge...

First, Judge has 80 grade power, whereas Riley has closer to 60 grade power. While Riley had a good 94.1 mph average exit velocity, Judge blew him away with a value of 100.2 in 2016. Comparing Riley's power to Judge's is completely laughable. Judge produces the most valuable contact in all of MLB.

Second, Riley's O-Swing% in 2019 was 41.3%, good for 22nd worst out of 320 hitters with 250+ Pas. Judges O-Swing% in 2016 was 33.6%, which would be somewhere in the middle of the pack, and it has since improved to ~25% in subsequent years. Judge's ability to identify bad pitches was far superior to Riley's, even when he was at his worst.

Third, Riley's Z-Contact% of 73.6% in 2019 ranked 3rd worst of those same 320 hitters, meaning Riley struggles greatly to make contact on strikes he decides to swing at. Not being able to make contact on strikes is a pretty big deal for a baseball player. Judges' Z-Contact% has been consistent at around 79% from day 1, and while still bad, better than Riley's...and always has been.

In short, Judge at his worst still hit the ball much harder than Riley, identified strikes much better than Riley, and made more contact than Riley.

The red flags for Riley are right red, and they have been there from the moment he took his first 50 PAs at the MLB level. He is a pure guess hitter, and until he improves upon the metrics I listed, there is no way he will stick at an MLB corner.

Can he improve those metrics? No idea, but I wouldn't bet against it from a talented 22 year old. Even if he can improve those metrics, it would be foolish to pencil him into the lineup for opening day 2020 until he shows positive signs.

Thanks. But this is what I was getting at. Don't we have enough case studies with comparable profiles of poor plate discipline like Riley to know it's highly unlikely he will improve? Players with poor plate discipline usually don't figure it out at the major league level. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Enscheff]

Thanks. But this is what I was getting at. Don't we have enough case studies with comparable profiles of poor plate discipline like Riley to know it's highly unlikely he will improve? Players with poor plate discipline usually don't figure it out at the major league level. Correct me if I'm wrong.

A guy like Springer improved his Z-Contact% from marks similarly terrible to Riley's to the 80%-85% range he has today. However, he never had an O-Swing% nearly as bad as Riley's.

Baez swings like a maniac at pitches out of the zone, and he figured out how to make it work after ~4 mediocre offensive seasons. Of course, his Z-Contact% is much better than Riley's, and he plays up the middle defense.

There haven't been many guys who swing at as many bad pitches, while missing as many good pitches as Riley...and for good reason. Those guys don't tend to succeed enough to warrant 250 PAs, and the only reason Riley did was the insane lucky streak he hit the moment he was called up.

In fact, I can't find anyone with 250+ PAs with that type of plate discipline profile.

 

[NYCBrave]

A guy like Springer improved his Z-Contact% from marks similarly terrible to Riley's to the 80%-85% range he has today. However, he never had an O-Swing% nearly as bad as Riley's.

Baez swings like a maniac at pitches out of the zone, and he figured out how to make it work after ~4 mediocre offensive seasons. Of course, his Z-Contact% is much better than Riley's, and he plays up the middle defense.

There haven't been many guys who swing at as many bad pitches, while missing as many good pitches as Riley...and for good reason. Those guys don't tend to succeed enough to warrant 250 PAs, and the only reason Riley did was the insane lucky streak he hit the moment he was called up.

In fact, I can't find anyone with 250+ PAs with that type of plate discipline profile.

Ok good, so your research proved my point. And this is probably a good reason that not only should he not be counted on for a starting role next season, but this is probably the best time to sell high.

 

[Enscheff]

I would be surprised if any team is dumb enough to be fooled by Riley’s lucky streak.

Casual fans and dumber forum posters, yes. Modern FOs? Doubtful.

 

[NYCBrave]

I would be surprised if any team is dumb enough to be fooled by Riley’s lucky streak.

Casual fans and dumber forum posters, yes. Modern FOs? Doubtful.

Luckily there are still some Front Offices left that are a bit behind the times. Plus, Riley has a minor league track record. So I don't believe all of the shine is lost.

 

[TheBravos]

I would be surprised if any team is dumb enough to be fooled by Riley’s lucky streak.

Casual fans and dumber forum posters, yes. Modern FOs? Doubtful.

As many are probably too high on Riley....you are pretty low. He showed flashes of his ceiling in his rookie year. Absolutely killed AAA at a pretty young age. He has gotten better literally every year he has been in the system.

He will probably not be a multiple year All Star player, but it would not surprise me AT ALL for him to become a above average everyday player.

In saying that....trading him comes down to Donaldson. If we sign him back for 2-3 years....Riley could be moved. The only way he is moved is in a big deal. As long as we sign Donaldson...I’m fine with that. If Donaldson doesn’t sign, you could be looking at a Riley/Camargo duo.

We do need to make a big trade this offseason(needs to be the right one though). We have already held onto guys like Touki for too long.

 

[The Tariff King]

What can we sell Riley to Kansas City for?