Official Offseason Thread

UNCBlue012 said:
I wouldn't give up Langeliers but I'd love to make a deal. That said, Marte isn't worth Waters and I doubt the Pirates would get anyone close to that for him.
Click to expand...

Marte has between 30-40 million in surplus value and Waters being a 55 FV prospect has roughly the same amount. So Waters straight up for Marte would be appropriate value.


However, considering the Pirates aren't run very well, I agree with you that the Pirates won't get anyone close to that. They'll likely get back a couple of 50 FV guys instead of playing the market out and getting the value you really want (like good front offices do).
 
BeanieAntics said:
I think the people talking about a move that substantial are dreaming a little too much in regards to the outfield. First, those two would add around ~35 million in 2020 payroll, carrying our ultimate number well over 170 million dollars if we didn't shed any other contracts. Even if we shed Ender's contract, it'd still be well over 160 million. That ain't happening. It would take a few other contract moving moves in order for a Marte/Donaldson sequence to be even remotely feasible. Secondly, I think the front office would be fine rolling with Duvall, Ender, Markakis, and Acuna in the outfield in 2019. They wouldn't be ecstatic, but they wouldn't be suicidal either, especially if they effectively address 3rd base. But, I do think that they would like to add a right handed bat to the outfield as the weak side of a platoon with Nick and Ender, but an acquisition like that is going to be far less substantial than Marte. Third, if for some reason they decide to go after a big bat like Ozuna or Marte, it would almost HAVE to be in tandem with a lesser-than-Donaldson player at 3rd base. Ideally, in that situation we could work out a trade for a guy like Escobar whose extremely cheap contract MAY allow for a bat like that in the outfield. But, once again, I think that specific circumstance is fairly unlikely.

We are currently sitting on 138 million in payroll. The absolute ceiling I see for our OD payroll is about 155 million, and that seems very optimistic. So in the best possible scenario we have 17 million left to spend. Most, if not all, of that is going to have to be directed at either outfield or 3rd base, not both (unless the aforementioned miracle trade is in the works). And out of those two positions, 3rd base is easily our more pressing need. So I rank these remaining options in order of preference, not likelihood and assuming a 155 million dollar OD payroll:

1. Trade for Escobar (or similar player), Trade for Marte or sign Ozuna (may have to move contract in case of the latter)

2. Sign Donaldson, move contract for payroll, sign extremely cheap RHH outfielder or stand pat

3. Trade for Escobar (or similar player), Sign 2nd tier or reclamation outfielder (Puig, Garcia, Pillar, Santana, etc.)

4. Sign 2nd tier (or reclamation) 3rd baseman (Shaw, Gyorko, Cabrera), do same for Outfield (Puig, Garcia, Pillar, Santana), possibly leaves room for small bench signing as well.

There may be a few other options that people could work out, but these are the ones that I think are the most likely. If we don't have the payroll capacity to hit 155 million on OD, then things become far more complicated. In that case, these are the options I see:

1. Move a 10+ million dollar contract, then revert back to the 4 aforementioned options.

2. Trade for Escobar (or similar), stand pat in outfield, sign replacement level player, or somehow trade for cheap production.

3. Sign ~2 cheap utility options or reclamation projects to mix and match on offense and hope you can approximate last year's production through platooning (Zobrist, Cabrera, Sogard, Frazier, Flores, Miller, Walker, Gyorko, Shaw, Beckham, Santana, Pillar, Maybin, Puig) - Some of those options may be priced out, but most were <2 WAR last year.

The more I look at our current situation, the more I'm worried about effectively filling this offense out in 2020. AA is going to have to get pretty creative to figure it out.
Click to expand...

Estimates I’ve seen have Braves around $130 million in committed payroll for 2020, not the near-$140m you cite. In that context, adding the ~$36m for Donaldson and Marte, then unloading Inciarte (or Greene, or both) gets the Braves right around that $155m mark.

Perhaps not likely, but not infeasible.
 
Not sure Rendon would go there, unless the money was absurd. Unlike last year, there's alot of teams in on the top FA's. There wasnt really alot of them in on Machado/Harper, Harper basically fell into their laps.
 
jpx7 said:
Estimates I’ve seen have Braves around $130 million in committed payroll for 2020, not the near-$140m you cite. In that context, adding the ~$36m for Donaldson and Marte, then unloading Inciarte (or Greene, or both) gets the Braves right around that $155m mark.

Perhaps not likely, but not infeasible.
Click to expand...

The lowest I've seen is 132 million, but that doesn't factor in the 6 million in signing bonuses that we owe to Melancon, Freddie, and Ender.
 
BeanieAntics said:
The lowest I've seen is 132 million, but that doesn't factor in the 6 million in signing bonuses that we owe to Melancon, Freddie, and Ender.
Click to expand...

Spotrac has us at 132 with signing bonuses and such. Payroll isnt currently near 140 at this moment.
 
Heyward said:
Spotrac has us at 132 with signing bonuses and such. Payroll isnt currently near 140 at this moment.
Click to expand...

Spotrac factors in the signing bonus in their 132 million figure, but doesn't factor in the league minimum salaries of pre-arb players like Soroka, Newcomb, Riley, etc, which amounts to about 583,000 a piece. Add up all of those that are on the roster, and you get far closer to 140 million. I've added up all the salaries, projected arb figures, and league minimums and I keep getting a number around 138 million.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Freddie Freeman 30 1B Vet 16,875,000
Mark Melancon 35 RP/CL Vet 5,500,000
Cole Hamels 36 SP Vet 18,000,000
Will Smith 30 RP/CL Vet 1 13,333,333
Travis d'Arnaud 31 C Vet 1 8,000,000
Ender Inciarte 29 CF Arb 4 2 6,105,000
Mike Foltynewicz 28 SP Arb 3 7,500,000
Chris Martin 34 RP Pre-Arb 1 7,000,000
Shane Greene 31 RP Arb 3 6,500,000
Tyler Flowers 34 C Vet 4,000,000
Nick Markakis 36 RF Vet 4,000,000
Adam Duvall 31 RF Arb 2 3,800,000
Dansby Swanson 26 SS Arb 1 3,300,000
Darren O'Day 37 RP Vet 2,750,000
Luke Jackson 28 RP Arb 1 1,900,000
Johan Camargo 26 3B Pre-Arb 2 1,600,000
Ronald Acuna 22 LF Pre-Arb 3 12,500,000
Ozzie Albies 23 2B Pre-Arb 3 5,000,000
Grant Dayton 32 RP Arb 1 1 800,000

Add up all those numbers, and you get a payroll of right around 132 million. However, you'll notice several names missing from that list. Once you add in all the guys owed league minimum like Fried, Soroka, Riley, Sobotka, Newcomb, etc. and you factor those in, you get a much higher payroll currently.

Edit: Sorry for the formatting. Just add up the numbers on the far right to get what each player is owed.

Edit 2: Cleaned it up a bit.
Click to expand...

Damnit Acuna. If we never gave him an extension he'd still be near league minimum and we could afford to get a bigger name right now. AA should have never offered that extent.
 
The Chosen One said:
Damnit Acuna. If we never gave him an extension he'd still be near league minimum and we could afford to get a bigger name right now. AA should have never offered that extent.
Click to expand...

Sorry, just realized that I accidently included his luxury tax hit rather than his actual salary for this year. Since we won't be approaching LT territory, that number really doesn't matter. I'm trying to figure out how to format this effectively from a copy/paste, but its just a mess so I deleted it. Still, everything I'm seeing right now leads me to believe that when you factor in signing bonuses and league minimum salaries, our payroll is currently around 138 million.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Sorry, just realized that I accidently included his luxury tax hit rather than his actual salary for this year. Since we won't be approaching LT territory, that number really doesn't matter. I'm trying to figure out how to format this effectively from a copy/paste, but its just a mess so I deleted it. Still, everything I'm seeing right now leads me to believe that when you factor in signing bonuses and league minimum salaries, our payroll is currently around 138 million.
Click to expand...

Should ask [MENTION=70]clvclv[/MENTION] or [MENTION=59]Enscheff[/MENTION]

Nobody posts more tables and lists of the roster than those two.
 
BeanieAntics said:
The lowest I've seen is 132 million, but that doesn't factor in the 6 million in signing bonuses that we owe to Melancon, Freddie, and Ender.
Click to expand...

A lot of those sites track payroll in odd ways. From what I can tell, the Braves budget signing bonuses in the year they are paid.

I posted the updated 2020 payroll in the appropriate thread. No matter what math we use, adding Marte and JD would be an enormous jump in opening day payroll.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top