Official Offseason Thread

The Rockies would have to eat money and that would up the prospect capital for any team trying to trade for Arenado. So signing Rendon would of made the most sense for anybody willing to give out that type of commitment. If he declined his opt out and they ate enough money to get it under 30 a year then yeah I’d be in but I don’t see all of that lining up. Bryant is still our best move if JD won’t take 3 years from us.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I’m still not there. Not that you need to convince me.

There may not be a qualifying offer at the end of Bryant’s deal because of labor issues.

Anderson has a very good change and that has nothing to do with spin rates. I’ve seen him consistently tagged as flashing two plus breaking balls. He’s still very young. We still don’t know what ball he will use.

I’m not giving up 6 years of a stud 3 for Bryant. Not unless there is another move to make us legit World Series team.

He’s really good but I’d rather pay jd 4/100 and keep Anderson.

If cubs will let us overpay with Riley, Wright, mueller/Davidson/touki/Wilson then I’m in. That’s still a big overpay based on the excess value math.

If they need Anderson I’d love a Bryant and Contreras package with Anderson, Riley, Wright, Contreras/Langeliers, mueller, Wilson flowers. I get that it will never happen. They’d at least want waters in that deal.

I really think we need to find someone to take the poo poo platter of aaaa arms we have.

Jd plus Anderson can be more war than Bryant
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All valid points except not being WS contenders. The Braves are playoff contenders, and therefore a legit WS team. All moves for the next 5+ years should be made under that premise.

If Anderson’s breaking ball truly sits at 1700 RPM, it is physically impossible to have an average or better breaking ball. Anyone with a PC can cross reference the public statcast data with public FG movement data to verify that fact.

Bryant only makes sense at the right price, and part of that price is determined by how someone evaluates guys like Riley and Anderson. I have formed my opinion on Riley based on MLB data, but unfortunately we don’t have the data to evaluate Anderson ourselves. Trading Wright would be a calculated risk.
 
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I think Enscheff has laid out the Bryant/Donaldson dynamic pretty well here.

The only thing I would add is that it's easy for us to focus on the "risk" of a Bryant trade, but there's quite a lot of risk in a Donaldson extension too, and not just if it goes to four years. He was great last year, but he's going to be a 34-year-old corner infielder with some recent injury problems and a big spike in strikeouts from his peak. I don't know if the data backs this up, but I'm a little leery of how hitters with a mid-range BA/lots of walks/lots of homers/lots of strikeouts profile age. On the positive side, he was still a plus defender last year (B-Ref loves his defense more than Fangraphs). If you go to four years, you do so understanding that the contract will probably look ugly by that final year - you're hoping for a couple really good years and a still-solid decline year before that. But there's certainly a chance that you give Donaldson a big money extension, and he starts declining immediately - as in, 2020.

With Bryant, at least, you're about as confident as you can be that you're going to get (at least) solid production over the next two years, which I don't think is a guarantee with Donaldson.
 
nsacpi said:
I'll say it again. Trevor Story has a manageable salary. He would make more sense.
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Agreed. Arenado just doesn’t have a lot of positive trade value because of that contract, but the Rockies are going to want a lot of future value for a player of his on-field value and stature. If they’d trade him in a Stanton-to-Yankees type dump, I could see it—but I don’t envision their being game for that.
 
MadduxFanII said:
I think Enscheff has laid out the Bryant/Donaldson dynamic pretty well here.

The only thing I would add is that it's easy for us to focus on the "risk" of a Bryant trade, but there's quite a lot of risk in a Donaldson extension too, and not just if it goes to four years. He was great last year, but he's going to be a 34-year-old corner infielder with some recent injury problems and a big spike in strikeouts from his peak. I don't know if the data backs this up, but I'm a little leery of how hitters with a mid-range BA/lots of walks/lots of homers/lots of strikeouts profile age. On the positive side, he was still a plus defender last year (B-Ref loves his defense more than Fangraphs). If you go to four years, you do so understanding that the contract will probably look ugly by that final year - you're hoping for a couple really good years and a still-solid decline year before that. But there's certainly a chance that you give Donaldson a big money extension, and he starts declining immediately - as in, 2020.

With Bryant, at least, you're about as confident as you can be that you're going to get (at least) solid production over the next two years, which I don't think is a guarantee with Donaldson.
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nagging injury risk is what concerns me most with 4 years on JD. at his age, the likelihood of something like that happening has to increase. if it does, it can significantly hurt his production for more than just the final year of the deal.
 
I think the Braves and Josh are waiting on the Bryant grievance decision. I think it's quite possible we already have the framework of a deal with the Cubs worked out if the decision remains two years of control. If it drops to one, then I think we've probably told Josh we'll add the 4th year and he'll then sign with us.
 
Why else hasn't Josh signed yet? If the reports that he already has a couple 4 year deals is true and that he really would prefer resigning with the Braves all else being equal, then if we've told him we won't go anymore than 3 years period, he would have already taken one of those 4 year deals. If that report is false and he in fact does not have any 4 year deals yet, then it would make sense that he hasn't signed yet given he is holding out hope someone will eventually give him that 4th year, hopefully to him that being the Braves.
 
skillet said:
I think the Braves and Josh are waiting on the Bryant grievance decision. I think it's quite possible we already have the framework of a deal with the Cubs worked out if the decision remains two years of control. If it drops to one, then I think we've probably told Josh we'll add the 4th year and he'll then sign with us.
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Just not sure that fits. When you consider how stingy AA has been with prospects, do you really think he prefers to give up the kind of package Theo is going to want for Bryant - even with 2 years of control - when re-signing Donaldson just costs money (and a pick if you prefer to look at it that way)?

The payroll hit is apparently not the main concern here, it's the years. If they actually did poke around on Rendon and Arenado (and have no problem paying Bryant an average AAV of more than $20 million), the first couple of years' payroll wouldn't seem to be much of a concern anyway. You'd still have an inexpensive 3B platoon option if Donaldson shifts to DH in a couple years if you keep Riley PLUS you'd also have a couple of inexpensive arms - even if they don't reach their ceilings Wright and Anderson would probably at least factor in as back of the rotation guys or pen pieces at that point.

I wouldn't doubt that you're probably right in guessing AA has probably got a pretty good handle on what Bryant will cost and that it's something he's OK with paying, but I doubt that they're holding Donaldson hostage while they wait for the arbitrator's decision - I think AA legitimately is holding off on caving on the 4th year because they'd prefer to pay for Freddie's decline years if they have to choose one or the other.
 
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At this point nothing else could be holding up a JD deal other than Bryant’s situation being resolved. Teams are either willing to go 4 years, or they aren’t. The only new piece of information that can change that calculus is whether or not Bryant has 1 or 2 years of control.

Several teams are probably waiting for the resolution on Bryant’s case, so it would be wise for JD to wait as well to extract the max offer from all interested teams.
 
I keep going back to San Diego as a trade partner if AA gets to the point he decides to move Inciarte. They REALLY want a CF - with Gore ready at some point this year and Patino and Weathers probably ready next season, I wonder if he couldn't prey on Preller's desire to win now and fleece him out of Dinelson Lamet since they would still have Quantrill, Lucchesi, Morejon, and Baez as options for the back of their rotation. Adding Lamet would potentially make it easy to help keep costs down moving forward because you could let Hamels walk next winter and not have to use that $18 million to sign another SP in the event Wilson, Wright, or Anderson don't take that step forward. If they do, you let Folty walk too.
 
I'm pretty sure most of us are pretty comfortable with Riley and Wright for Bryant, which probably means that package isn't enough to get him. Riley and Anderson would be a tough pill to swallow, as that's roughly 70 million in SV, whereas Bryany only has about 50-55 million in surplus value. Maybe find a way for the Cubs to kick in Happ to close the gap.
 
Carp said:
I'm pretty sure most of us are pretty comfortable with Riley and Wright for Bryant, which probably means that package isn't enough to get him. Riley and Anderson would be a tough pill to swallow, as that's roughly 70 million in SV, whereas Bryany only has about 50-55 million in surplus value. Maybe find a way for the Cubs to kick in Happ to close the gap.
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You add Happ into the mix and we can do some real talking. I didn't realize he brought down his K rate to ~25% at the MLB level last year (limited at bat sample size I know) and kept up a .264 average with a .286 BABIP (career mark of .329)... all while maintaining a .300 ISO and 127 wRC+... also providing above average defense. Potentially he's made the adjustments to be something solid if not special. I have been down on Ian Happ for quite some time, but looking at the underlying numbers, I think I've gotten high on him again. I would love to see him on the club more than Clint Frazier.
 
MLBtraderumors chat tried saying Fried and Pache would be acceptable for Bryant lol. I wouldn’t trade either of those guys in a deal let alone both.
 
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