Official Offseason Thread

NYCBrave said:
I follow this prospect site and they did an article on players they expect big years from in 2020. Here are the blurbs from the two Braves listed. Good to get an unbiased take from a non Braves fan.

https://prospects365.com/2020/01/20/non-elite-prospects-with-sneaky-2020-redraft-value

Tucker Davidson, SP, Atlanta. Age: 24

I don’t like Davidson’s 2020 outlook as much as I love Kyle Wright’s (scroll down for his write-up) 2020 outlook, but my gut tells me the left-hander will play a role in Atlanta at some point this season. The way I see it, Davidson is currently the 7th best starting pitcher within the Braves’ organization, behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Cole Hamels, Mike Foltynewicz, Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson (Sean Newcomb will reportedly battle with Wright and Ian Anderson for the fifth spot in the Braves’ rotation, but I suspect his optimal role is in the bullpen). Anderson is not currently on the 40-man roster and has only made five starts in Triple-A; of course the right-hander will eventually slot into the Braves’ starting rotation, but I believe it’s likely that Davidson, Wright and Bryse Wilson (and maybe even Patrick Weigel) will all receive opportunities before Anderson this season. I loved what I saw from Davidson last season in my Southern League looks, and he’s worked hard this offseason to add additional velocity to his already-underrated fastball. The long-term role is a little less clear, but I’m fairly confident the 24-year-old will log innings from Atlanta’s rotation at some point this season.

Kyle Wright, SP, Atlanta. Age: 24

My favorite inclusion on this list is also the highest ranked. Every time I revise my 2020 prospect list (published next month for non-VIP members), I find a reason to move Wright up a few spots. You can study the profile months, but Wright’s outlook basically boils down to this fact: if you believe in him, you better grab him—in any and every format—before Opening Day 2020. Tasked with out-dueling Sean Newcomb and Ian Anderson (I discussed the pitfalls of his 2020 outlook above) for the fifth spot in the Braves’ rotation, there’s no question this is an extremely important season in Wright’s professional career. Luckily for the 24-year-old, I believe he’s currently the odds-on favorite to secure the final rotation spot in Atlanta—for multi-faceted reasons that extend well beyond Wright himself. If I’m correct and the right-hander is given the first crack at taking the ball every fifth day, monitoring the early returns of his pitch usage, spin efficiency and command will likely serve as the preludes to his season-long viability. I say it every time I discuss Wright and I’ll leave you with the thought now: the 24-year-old’s possesses some of the best pure stuff in all of baseball.
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Gotta like the positive press. Thanks
 
Southcack77 said:
For me, I don't really see how waiving the opt-out actually makes him all that much more attractive to a team that is trading for him. That would have to be a club that is really sold on Arenado being, most likely, the highest paid player on their club for the foreseeable future. I doubt that is really Atlanta's bag.
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this was one of my issues with the waiving his opt-out discussion. why would a team really want that? if the Braves acquired him i'd almost want him to take the opt-out for sure.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Yeah, Donaldson honestly has a weird career arc. His overall counting stats, which sim scores are based on, are much lower than those guys at the same age. That's because all three of them were established players by 20-23, but Donaldson didn't play his first full season until 27. So you end up with a bizarre career shape that is essentially all peak, at the normal ages, but with nothing coming before. So for his sim scores, he's being compared to a group of guys with similar counting stats (like PA) at his age, who are almost uniformly going to be a worse player pool.

Mitchell - Last season >100 G was at 29.
Burnitz - Already 0 WAR player by 33.
Bautista - Actually Interesting comp
Post - Done by 33
Castilla - Already SVOD by 33
Nevin - Only had more than 450 PA 3 times in his whole career.
Hamilton - Honestly, a pretty interesting comp outside the baggage.
Frazier - Same age as Donaldson now, just a uniformly worse player
Bay - Done by 33
Sanders - A uniformly worse player than Donaldson, but was still relatively valuable from 34-37

Jose Bautista is really the only interesting comp, as he was also a later bloomer who was still elite at 33. Some similarity in the violence of the swings. Maybe that could a realistic downside; but I think Donaldson's "downside" value is still higher since his is a good defensive 3B rather than an all-bat DH.

If you look at his similar career batters (total, not by age) though, you see some midcareer guys who started off as immediately great, just at a younger age: Harper, Arenado, Machado. I think it will be very interesting to see how the HOF treats him when the time comes around, especially if he can pull off just one more elite season.
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A few other players worth considering as comps: Jeff Kent, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton. None played third, but match the late bloomer profile.
 
How sweet would it be if we could trade for Arenado/Bryant and still sign Castellanos or Ozuna... don't see the money being possible but its hard to gauge the potential budget at the moment.
 
Heyman- Braves still seek a middle of the order bat to replace Donaldson, with Ozuna or Castellanos being seen as the most likely options. They like both bats and are said likely to ultimately decide based on the deal.
 
Heyward said:
Heyman- Braves still seek a middle of the order bat to replace Donaldson, with Ozuna or Castellanos being seen as the most likely options. They like both bats and are said likely to ultimately decide based on the deal.
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It could be the wording of the tweet, but it sounds like the Braves will take the cheaper of Castellanos and Ozuna and it's that simple.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
It could be the wording of the tweet, but it sounds like the Braves will take the cheaper of Castellanos and Ozuna and it's that simple.
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i think it just means whoever comes at a better value. Ozuna will probably be more expensive but his contract could still be better value.
as usual, tho, Heyman's insight is pretty useless.
 
I know ppl are dismissing the comments about the Rockies not trading him.

I agree on the surplus value argument. Aa seems like a guy who is not budging in value.

But the Rockies can’t dump that guy for nothing. I don’t see how they eat a bunch of money either.

Maybe they make a multi player deal. But fans are not going to get Dahl has more surplus value than arenando. I don’t think the Rockies can get away with a Stanton dump.
 
Hard to take what Heyman says seriously though, i do hope hes right we seek a middle of the order bat. Current lineup aint good enough to be nice.
 
FWIW, someone said on the other Braves site, Braves have a Donaldson like 1 year offer to both Ozuna and Castellanos. I'd be pretty shocked if either took that.
 
zbhargrove said:
How sweet would it be if we could trade for Arenado/Bryant and still sign Castellanos or Ozuna... don't see the money being possible but its hard to gauge the potential budget at the moment.
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Another cheaper name to keep an eye on is Nick Senzel. The reds seem to be willing to move him as his name came up in the Lindor rumors. Sign one of the outfielders and suddenly it's easier to part with Drew Waters. The Reds I'm guessing would also want a young major league ready starting pitcher. That's of course assuming that the Braves think he can play 3B at the major league level (He played third in college and in the minors).
 
Russ2dollas said:
I know ppl are dismissing the comments about the Rockies not trading him.

I agree on the surplus value argument. Aa seems like a guy who is not budging in value.

But the Rockies can’t dump that guy for nothing. I don’t see how they eat a bunch of money either.

Maybe they make a multi player deal. But fans are not going to get Dahl has more surplus value than arenando. I don’t think the Rockies can get away with a Stanton dump.
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Basically, you are suggesting that the Rockies are barred from making sound baseball decisions because it would upset their fans.

Maybe that's how they see it.

But the Marlins made the best deal they could and there is no reason to believe that the Rockies are going to do any better. I have no idea why the Rockies would think they had anyone over a barrel here. Either they want out or they don't. It isn't likely they're getting a windfall of prospects out of this.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I know ppl are dismissing the comments about the Rockies not trading him.

I agree on the surplus value argument. Aa seems like a guy who is not budging in value.

But the Rockies can’t dump that guy for nothing. I don’t see how they eat a bunch of money either.

Maybe they make a multi player deal. But fans are not going to get Dahl has more surplus value than arenando. I don’t think the Rockies can get away with a Stanton dump.
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i think the Rockies could kick in cash for a better prospect package and the casual fan ("it's not my money") wouldn't bat too much of an eye.
they can't trade him for very little while providing zero cash like his contract dictates tho. the fans would be extremely upset.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
It could be the wording of the tweet, but it sounds like the Braves will take the cheaper of Castellanos and Ozuna and it's that simple.
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It may also depend on Ozuna's QO. If they have to pay an extra million in order to keep the pick and sign Castellanos, I would probably do that.
 
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