Official Offseason Thread

BeanieAntics said:
You don't value a contract based on how much it improves over your internal options. A player worth 3 WAR isn't worth 16 million because he is replacing a 1 WAR player. He's still worth 24 million.
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That isn’t what he is saying. He is saying we are only gaining 2 wins so paying 18 million is an overpay. Where he went wrong is that Neck and Duvvy are still on team and will still earn ~1 win because they will only be part time. Also you pay extra for one year lower risk contract. Plus Ozuna has much more potential to top 3 wins versus duvy/Neck topping 1
 
bravesfanMatt said:
That isn’t what he is saying. He is saying we are only gaining 2 wins so paying 18 million is an overpay. Where he went wrong is that Neck and Duvvy are still on team and will still earn ~1 win because they will only be part time. Also you pay extra for one year lower risk contract. Plus Ozuna has much more potential to top 3 wins versus duvy/Neck topping 1
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That's exactly what I said he said. He said that an 18 million dollar wasn't worth it because it only improves over Nick by 2 wins. That's incorrect because of the reasons you outlined and that's why you don't value a contract based off the improvements over internal options.

Not sure where the disconnect is here.
 
BeanieAntics said:
That's exactly what I said he said. He said that an 18 million dollar wasn't worth it because it only improves over Nick by 2 wins. That's incorrect because of the reasons you outlined and that's why you don't value a contract based off the improvements over internal options.

Not sure where the disconnect is here.
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Thanks for the clarity guys. I feel better about the deal now. I guess I'm just a big supporter of a strong farm system and hate losing the pick, especially in light of the sanctions imposed on us.
 
skillet said:
Thanks for the clarity guys. I feel better about the deal now. I guess I'm just a big supporter of a strong farm system and hate losing the pick, especially in light of the sanctions imposed on us.
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Our third pick in the second round last year was Beau Phillip....so....
 
Baseball draft picks arent as important in other sports. Like NBA only has 2 rounds. NFL draft picks are the staple of your franchise. You can find gems in the later rounds, hundred of examples.
 
Heyward said:
Baseball draft picks arent as important in other sports. Like NBA only has 2 rounds. NFL draft picks are the staple of your franchise. You can find gems in the later rounds, hundred of examples.
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Yeah, but even I am a little concerned about the long term health of our farm after years of no significant international action, a relatively weak draft in 2019 (from my perspective, some like it), and a just a couple top picks in 2020. I really hope that we hit the international market extremely hard in 2021 and find some gems. Its possible that I'm wrong on the 2019 draft and that depth-oriented approach ends up paying dividends for us. I do kinda like Michael Harris, Bryce Ball, and Braden Shewmake long term.
 
skillet said:
Thanks for the clarity guys. I feel better about the deal now. I guess I'm just a big supporter of a strong farm system and hate losing the pick, especially in light of the sanctions imposed on us.
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it’s 10000% fair to be concerned about losing the draft pick. especially, as you said, with the sanctions they’re still dealing with.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Yeah, but even I am a little concerned about the long term health of our farm after years of no significant international action, a relatively weak draft in 2019 (from my perspective, some like it), and a just a couple top picks in 2020. I really hope that we hit the international market extremely hard in 2021 and find some gems. Its possible that I'm wrong on the 2019 draft and that depth-oriented approach ends up paying dividends for us. I do kinda like Michael Harris, Bryce Ball, and Braden Shewmake long term.
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We've actually seen some interesting prospects from these last 2 drafts, so I'm not too worried. Also, the budget going up and already having 2 stars locked up at affordable rates goes a long way towards keeping the MLB squad stocked.
 
Buzzworm said:
Which is where we should always be considering our market is the 9th largest.
We shouldn’t be a top 5 payroll but always should be between 7-12ish depending on how well we are drawing/winning.
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Now that the club owns the park and has The Battery, you could probably imagine them pushing the envelope into the top 5 range when everything is really lined up to make a push, but that's about where they should probably be in general.

Pretty hard for them to make legitimate excuses for falling into the 15-20 range.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Yeah, but even I am a little concerned about the long term health of our farm after years of no significant international action, a relatively weak draft in 2019 (from my perspective, some like it), and a just a couple top picks in 2020. I really hope that we hit the international market extremely hard in 2021 and find some gems. Its possible that I'm wrong on the 2019 draft and that depth-oriented approach ends up paying dividends for us. I do kinda like Michael Harris, Bryce Ball, and Braden Shewmake long term.
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We do have ALOT of young guys up and up and coming that we will have for years. We are one of the youngest teams in baseball with more coming.

Yes at some point it will catch up with us, but it does for everyone.
 
Fangraphs really likes the deal and likes Ozuna for 2020. Really a no lose situation if you weren't overpaying for JD.
 
Heyward said:
Baseball draft picks arent as important in other sports. Like NBA only has 2 rounds. NFL draft picks are the staple of your franchise. You can find gems in the later rounds, hundred of examples.
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I'd say the value of the pick is more about the bonus pool allocation than the actual pick itself.

Honestly, I'm not sure the order so much matters past the first round. You just need the money to get who you need.
 
Carp said:
We've actually seen some interesting prospects from these last 2 drafts, so I'm not too worried. Also, the budget going up and already having 2 stars locked up at affordable rates goes a long way towards keeping the MLB squad stocked.
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I'm not sure there is a single player in the 2018 draft still with the team that projects to play every day or make a MLB rotation.

It's nice that some of the guys in the 2019 draft started off well, but we're a long way from seeing what they are. It looks like it will be a better draft (as well it should be considering the bonus pool) than 2018 though.

the 2020 draft less two picks, plus one pick figures to be somewhere in between, but probably closer to 2018 in buying power.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm not sure there is a single player in the 2018 draft still with the team that projects to play every day or make a MLB rotation.

It's nice that some of the guys in the 2019 draft started off well, but we're a long way from seeing what they are. It looks like it will be a better draft (as well it should be considering the bonus pool) than 2018 though.

the 2020 draft less two picks, plus one pick figures to be somewhere in between, but probably closer to 2018 in buying power.
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2018 has to be evaluated in the context of the #1 pick not signing.
 
nsacpi said:
2018 has to be evaluated in the context of the #1 pick not signing.
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It's certainly an extenuating factor, but it doesn't really make the draft any more or less successful to take it into consideration.

there are very few particularly interesting players in that draft. Most project as bench bats or bullpen pieces. Which has its place too, I guess.
 
Jay212033 said:
I still can't believe Ozuna signed a one year deal lol!
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I think he probably had some 3 year, 50ish mil deals on the table. But if he has a monster year, he can really cash in with no QO next winter, and a pretty thin FA market.
 
Man the faillies are signing every veteran pitcher trying to come back. I guess they saw Sanchez he’ll win a title and they are trying to find theirs. Man that pitching staff is going to be a disaster. They better hope Nola bounces back.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Man the faillies are signing every veteran pitcher trying to come back. I guess they saw Sanchez he’ll win a title and they are trying to find theirs. Man that pitching staff is going to be a disaster. They better hope Nola bounces back.
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Apparently they dont wanna go over the tax.
 
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