Official Offseason Thread

[Snowman]

I’m not sure comargo needs a platoon. I know he hits better from the right side.

But last year was more of the outlier.

I think he’s pretty good defensively. I think he can be a 750-800 ops hitter. If they keep the super ball I’m more likely to think he can get closer to 800.

As a starter 2-3 war isn’t crazy. That’s a solid starter.

All offseason I said I wanted two more bats to really compete in the postseason . I still believe that. But we should be good enough to get to the deadline and know more about how our current guys, including pache and waters are doing.

In 2232 minor league PAs, Camargo has a .338 OBP and .392 SLG (.730 OPS).

In the majors in 2017 and 2019, it was a .305 OBPO and a .419 SLG in 504 PAs (.724 OPS).

In the majors in 2018, .349 OBP and .457 SLG in 524 PAs (.806 OPS).

It is not 2019 that is the outlier here.

 

[nsacpi]

Come on man. The answer is obvious. It's Russ Nixon

Haas

 

[nsacpi]

In 2232 minor league PAs, Camargo has a .338 OBP and .392 SLG (.730 OPS).

In the majors in 2017 and 2019, it was a .305 OBPO and a .419 SLG in 504 PAs (.724 OPS).

In the majors in 2018, .349 OBP and .457 SLG in 524 PAs (.806 OPS).

It is not 2019 that is the outlier here.

Riley has the kind of minor league pedigree that suggests he should be given an extented opportunity.

 

[Snowman]

I think Acuna hitting 2nd would be ideal. But batting 1st will get him what 25 more PAs than hitting 4th.

I've said this once before, but I'll repeat myself: the spot that comes up bases empty the most is leadoff, the 2nd most is the 3-hole, and then there's a fair-sized gap to the rest. The ideal solution would be to put more OBP heavy guys in those two slots, drop Acuna one slot to 2nd, and drop Freddie one slot to 4th. The increase in men on would be well worth the small drop in PAs from a single slot drop.

 

[Snowman]

Riley has the kind of minor league pedigree that suggests he should be given an extented opportunity.

I'm actually having trouble with Riley. Part of me sees those eventual level advancements to which you're referring and thinks he might be worth more seasoning. The other part sees his worse-than-Francoeur Frenchy approach at the plate an d wants to sell while he still has value, and before we end up with four years of a .300 OBP batting in the middle of the order everyday.

 

[TheBravos]

Riley has improved every year. He has been prone to struggles at times, but he always comes back the following year and KILLS it.

I don’t know how he will turn out, but it definitely wouldn’t surprise me if he returns this year a much improved player.

 

[clvclv]

Riley has the kind of minor league pedigree that suggests he should be given an extented opportunity.

By no means does this mean he'll make the adjustments and ultimately work out, but his track record at least suggests he can.

Start him in Gwinnett to relieve some of the pressure and get him off to a good start. Bring him back up at the sign of the first hot streak and plug him in for a while - at this point there's not a whole lot of reason to hit either of the 3Bs higher than 7th if they're struggling at all. If Snitker doesn't want to have several RH bats in a row, move Ender in front whomever's playing 3B.

 

[Enscheff]

I've said this once before, but I'll repeat myself: the spot that comes up bases empty the most is leadoff, the 2nd most is the 3-hole, and then there's a fair-sized gap to the rest. The ideal solution would be to put more OBP heavy guys in those two slots, drop Acuna one slot to 2nd, and drop Freddie one slot to 4th. The increase in men on would be well worth the small drop in PAs from a single slot drop.

This guy gets it, and should be the man filling out the Braves lineup card.

 

[Enscheff]

I’m not sure comargo needs a platoon. I know he hits better from the right side.

But last year was more of the outlier.

I think he’s pretty good defensively. I think he can be a 750-800 ops hitter. If they keep the super ball I’m more likely to think he can get closer to 800.

As a starter 2-3 war isn’t crazy. That’s a solid starter.

All offseason I said I wanted two more bats to really compete in the postseason . I still believe that. But we should be good enough to get to the deadline and know more about how our current guys, including pache and waters are doing.

Take a look at the exit velocities from each side of the plate for Camargo, and you’ll understand why he needs to be platooned.

With Ozuna on board the Braves need to add a LHH at 3b to round out the roster. They basically need a Markakis for 3b now that the RHH thumper took a cOF spot.

 

[Eyeman]

One of the bigger issues I have with our likely lineup is Albies sux in the #2 slot at getting runners over. He pops up way too often. I guess that's better than hitting into a double play but still.

I hadn't realized how right hand heavy our lineup might be if all our prospects hit. Aren't Waters and Pache right handed? I guess we do really need to look for a left handed power hitting outfielder. Who can we target that fills that need?

 

[The Tariff King]

One of the bigger issues I have with our likely lineup is Albies sux in the #2 slot at getting runners over. He pops up way too often. I guess that's better than hitting into a double play but still.

I hadn't realized how right hand heavy our lineup might be if all our prospects hit. Aren't Waters and Pache right handed? I guess we do really need to look for a left handed power hitting outfielder. Who can we target that fills that need?

He's already on the roster.

 

[CyYoung31]

One of the bigger issues I have with our likely lineup is Albies sux in the #2 slot at getting runners over. He pops up way too often. I guess that's better than hitting into a double play but still.

I hadn't realized how right hand heavy our lineup might be if all our prospects hit. Aren't Waters and Pache right handed? I guess we do really need to look for a left handed power hitting outfielder. Who can we target that fills that need?

Imagine thinking one our best hitters batting 2nd is a major problem.

 

[Snowman]

Imagine thinking one our best hitters batting 2nd is a major problem.

Imagine still thinking in 2020 that the most important position in the lineup should be regularly making outs on purpose.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Anyone ever seen snowman and scheff in the same room. Hmmm

 

[BeanieAntics]

I've said this once before, but I'll repeat myself: the spot that comes up bases empty the most is leadoff, the 2nd most is the 3-hole, and then there's a fair-sized gap to the rest. The ideal solution would be to put more OBP heavy guys in those two slots, drop Acuna one slot to 2nd, and drop Freddie one slot to 4th. The increase in men on would be well worth the small drop in PAs from a single slot drop.

Exactly. We should be putting our best power bats in the 2, 4, and 5 hole, which likely means having Acuna, Freddie, and Ozuna fill them respectively. Then, our best OBP guy with less power than those three should hit leadoff. It should probably be Ozzie against LHP and someone like Ender or Nick vs RHP. In the 3 hole you could go in a lot of different directions, but I guess I would put Ozzie there vs RHP even though he isn't ideal for that slot. Against LHP I suppose I would put either Dansby, Duvall, or one of our catchers in that spot. So my ideal lineup vs each handedness would look something like this:

RHP

1. Markakis/Ender
2. Acuna
3. Ozzie
4. Freddie
5. Ozuna
6. D'arnaud/Flowers
7. Camargo/Riley
8. Pitcher
9. Dansby

LHP

1. Ozzie
2. Acuna
3. Duvall
4. Freddie
5. Ozuna
6. Flowers/D'arnaud
7. Riley/Camargo
8. Pitcher
9. Dansby

You could play around a lot with spots 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 9 but generally I think these lineups would be close to optimized as long as 2, 4, and 5 are Acuna, Freddie, and Ozuna. I like the idea of having Dansby in the 9 hole to interact more with the top of the lineup. I think Riley/Camargo's plate discipline would benefit from hitting in front of the pitcher.

 

[Metaphysicist]

I'm actually having trouble with Riley. Part of me sees those eventual level advancements to which you're referring and thinks he might be worth more seasoning. The other part sees his worse-than-Francoeur Frenchy approach at the plate an d wants to sell while he still has value, and before we end up with four years of a .300 OBP batting in the middle of the order everyday.

Now, now, let's not sell short Frenchy's complete inability to let a pitch pass, and the consistency and intransigence with which he lived his life.

Frenchy's BB%, full season ball

Age 19, Low-A: 5%
Age 20, A/AA: 5%
Age 21, AA/MLB: 5%
Age 22, MLB: 3% (Truly a wonder to behold)
Age 23, MLB: 6%
Age 24, AA/MLB: 6%
Age 25, MLB: 4% ("If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?")
Rest of his MLB career: 5%

Riley's BB%, full season ball

Age 19, Low-A: 7%
Age 20, A+/AA: 8%
Age 21, AA/AAA: 8%
Age 22, AAA/MLB: 7%
Future: ??

For reference to a good player, here is Freeman's BB% full season ball:

Age 18, Low-A: 9%
Age 19, A+/AA: 8%
Age 20, AAA/MLB: 9%
Age 21: MLB: 9%
Age 22: MLB: 10%

Riley's approach could use a good deal of work (more swing and miss than Frenchy or Freeman, even when he's good, Melvin-esque contact rates in the zone in 2019). Obviously the free-hacking he did in 2019 (40+% out-of-zone swing percentage) in the bigs is not gonna cut it. But he at least appears to know he is legally allowed walk to first.

But the real moral is that we should really appreciate what we had in good ol' Clutchy.

 

[Carp]

Not exactly sure why this comes as any kind of surprise to anyone - if you had doubts about that, it's only because you were kidding yourself.

There's always "the other side", and the other side of this issue is part of what makes the players like Snitker (and previously Bobby) so much - he's going to go to any length to make his players feel as comfortable as humanly possible, and he doesn't give a *amn what the numbers (or people outside the clubhouse) say.

We can disagree with that rationale all we'd like - that's often the difference in having a great clubhouse and a meh clubhouse. It's not going to have a direct bearing on the numbers, but it's tough to argue that it's probably easier to get better performance from a roster full of happy players than a group of guys who aren't necessarily looking forward to getting to the park every day.

Can you measure that? Of course not, but players constantly tell us that that kind of thing both exists and affects their performance - so tell them they're full of *hit, not posters on a message board.

Pretty sure players will hit where you tell them to and not pout about it. These are professionals.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Anyone ever seen snowman and scheff in the same room. Hmmm

It is common knowledge that I'm Scheff's alt account that is used for the sole purpose of heaping praise onto his opinions.

 

[BeanieAntics]

One of the bigger issues I have with our likely lineup is Albies sux in the #2 slot at getting runners over. He pops up way too often. I guess that's better than hitting into a double play but still.

I hadn't realized how right hand heavy our lineup might be if all our prospects hit. Aren't Waters and Pache right handed? I guess we do really need to look for a left handed power hitting outfielder. Who can we target that fills that need?

Waters is a switch hitter

 

[BeanieAntics]

One of the bigger issues I have with our likely lineup is Albies sux in the #2 slot at getting runners over. He pops up way too often. I guess that's better than hitting into a double play but still.

I hadn't realized how right hand heavy our lineup might be if all our prospects hit. Aren't Waters and Pache right handed? I guess we do really need to look for a left handed power hitting outfielder. Who can we target that fills that need?

What do you mean by bunting or something? That is really the only way to "get a runner over" with a runner on first other than getting a base hit and bunting is ALWAYS a terrible idea in those situations. The problem with Ozzie hitting 2nd is that he is probably the 4th best hitter for that slot when you should be putting your best or 2nd best hitter there. Acuna is tailor made for the 2 hole. Placing Ozzie in an optimized lineup is probably the biggest challenge that I would face if I were a manager. I think you could make reasonable arguments for him to hit in the 1, 3, or 6 hole, especially against RHP. The fact that he has significant R/L splits makes it even more challenging, because you could also argue that he should be in the 2, 3, or 5 holes against lefties since he is so good.

Against RHP, he's about league average, but he'll still get on base a little and give you a little pop here and there. So the 1, 3, or 6 hole should play fine to his strengths, since he is still probably our 4th or 5th best hitter against RHP. But he is literally one of the best hitters in baseball against LHP, easily capable of putting up a 1.000+ OPS. So at that point you may start considering pushing Ozuna to the 1, 3, or 6 hole while letting Ozzie take his spot at 5, or switch things around to put him at 2 while moving Acuna to 4th and Freddie to 5th.

Ozzie is a complicated player to place in an optimized lineup.