Official Prediction Thread: 2017 MLB Season (Braves Only)

[JohnAdcox]

Just at a quick glance, you are missing one game from the Oakland Series. It is a 3 game series.

That one is clearly too close to call.

 

[nsacpi]

I think their baseline is that of an 80 win team. But the optimist in me is having Lady Luck give them an extra 5 wins. That will allow them to be in the Wild Card race to the very end.

In terms of individual players I'm going to predict the following hitters to hit better than their Fangraph OPS projections:

Freeman, Kemp, Markakis, Inciarte, Albies, Mallex and Recker

I predict the following will under-perform their OPS projections:

Garcia, Rodriguez, Swanson, Flowers and Peterson

With pitchers I expect the following to out-perform their xFIP projections:

Teheran, Dickey, Folty, Wisler, Viz, Cabrera, Simmons, Krol, Paco Rodriguez, Winkler

The following will under-perform:

Colon, Garcia, Jim Johnson

As the above indicates most of the "upside surprises" that will allow an 80 win team to win 85 games will come from the pitching.

Updating my projections on the eve of the start of the regular season. Since that post we've lost Sean Rodriguez to injury, traded away Smith and Simmons, and cut Paco Rodriguez. We have signed Phillips and Suzuki. Net that takes us down a couple wins. The Smith/Simmons/Gohara trade might pan out in the long run but it will certainly cost us this year.

So this team looks more like a 78 win team to me now than the 80 wins I had it pegged for back in January. And the optimist in me thinks it is entirely possible we get more upside surprises than downside surprises. So 83 wins if things break our way. Probably not quite enough to really be in the wild card even under an optimistic scenario.

 

[thewupk]

We are at the all-star break and the Braves are on pace to win 78 games.

 

[Super]

We are at the all-star break and the Braves are on pace to win 78 games.

What are the deeper numbers saying? Are we lucky to be at 78, right where we should be, or have we been unlucky?

 

[Enscheff]

We are at the all-star break and the Braves are on pace to win 78 games.

My prediction was 78 games.

My individual predictions:

Freeman hits 40+ HRs. (perfect if not for injury)

Folty establishes himself as the Ace of the staff by August. (looking good)

Swanson isn't the star many think he is, more of a solid 2-3 win guy. (seems about right)

Albies and Mallex are the only young position prospects that prove they belong in an MLB lineup. (no proof with Albies yet, but Mallex has posted 1.1 bWAR this year so far)

The rest, Ruiz, Peterson, and the rest, show they are only AAAA guys, (dead on)

yet folks continue to insist they need to be "given a chance to see what they can do". (this was obvious)

 

[thewupk]

What are the deeper numbers saying? Are we lucky to be at 78, right where we should be, or have we been unlucky?

Using bWAR + statcorner pitch framing I have the Braves at 40 wins based on that.

Pythag w/l (based on actual runs scored and allowed) has the Braves at 39 wins.

Braves have actually won 42 games and are 12-11 in 1-run games.

So maybe a hair lucky if you want to call it that but nothing that isn't within expectations of what can happen in a MLB season. They have played to what a lot on here saw them as at the start of the year. A mid to high 70's win team.