Maybe not about the 10 wins. But they are combined for 7.7 wins on bRef and that's with 6 weeks to go and Teheran missing some time. They are going to have a good chunk of the teams value this season.
Olivera traded for Kemp
- Thread starter Enscheff
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Maybe not about the 10 wins. But they are combined for 7.7 wins on bRef and that's with 6 weeks to go and Teheran missing some time. They are going to have a good chunk of the teams value this season.
While true, it can also hurt to go to the dance with the girl that brought ya and she ends up sleeping with Zito instead of being patient and finding a girl with good taste.
In other words, trying to win too soon could be detrimental. The acquisition of Kemp indicates that they may be trying next year, which I don't think it a smart move.
It's only detrimental if you blow valuable resources while trying to do that. The Kemp acquisition seems to show that they aren't going down that road. Not yet anyways.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Exactly the point. Swanson and Albies help but are nowhere near enough. And the timing on FA help is just bad for the rebuild. Even IF you did have say $100M to spend this offseason, and even if you could sign the best of all the best FA available with that money, it still doesn't position the Braves as a long term contender and likely not even a short term contender. Let's say you "magic" away the bad payroll left first in moving Markakis and Kemp somehow (clears the way to spend your $100M) and then you spend $25M per on Cespedes, $22M per on Desmond, $22M per on Ramos, $15M per on Prado, $16M per on Beltran.
Well, on paper at least, you have fixed your offense: 2B Albies, SS Swanson, CF Desmond (probably can't paly here), 1B Freeman, RF Cespedes, LF Beltran, 3B Prado, C Ramos
You've spent your $100M and likely have 3-4 contracts that will look very bad in two years.
But, then look at the pitching: Teheran, Folty, ?, ?, ?
Here's where things haven't gone right. Wisler has gone backward, Blair never really made it out of the gate, Newcomb is developing at a steady pace but not leaping through developmental levels, the other guys are no more than placeholders (Gant, Whelan, Jenkins, Perez). The thing is, the best Braves high end pitching is in A ball.
And the whole "trade for a top end starter or maybe an ace" has never made any sense because of what would have to be given up. If you want to get Sale you HAVE to start with Albies and Swanson then start adding from there. Isn't going to happen.
Everyone wants so badly for the Braves to be good next year but they aren't going to be. Trying to build an illusion for the masses is the quickest way to undermine the rebuild.
This teams target date should be 2018 at the earliest and that's if some of the young pitching actually shows significant progress next year.
chop2chip
Well-known member
That's true, but Freddie isn't a rental player, so it's not like we are forcing ourselves to make that decision now. We can try to win next year, and the year after that, and then the year after that.
I do see the merit in trading Julio though if we can get at least a semblance of the Shelby Miller package for him.
I agree. This magical year where everyone progresses at the same time is non-existent. So many things can happen with prospects They all mature at different rates if they do at all.
I do think we're switching gears to winning now. The fact that we have a cash cow entertainment complex that we want everyone to visit has a big part to do with that.
I look at what we got for guys like Norris, Harrell, Alvarez, and Cervenka and I think that's what we're going to try and repeat that but on a larger scale. We have to sell tickets, so the rallying cry will be that we're building a contender, but we're not going to sacrifice the future to do so. We'll acquire a couple of players who are long term answers at our positions of need and the rest will be assets we can flip for a higher return than what we paid.
I'm ok with that. It will make for an interesting team to follow and I think we can be competitive in the first half. The 2nd half will depend on if we're trying or not. That's why it's hard for me to point towards a specific win total, as it depends on the effort we're making to compete.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Let me preface this by saying that I expect the Braves to win around 75 games next year, but ...
If the Marlins can contend for the wildcard, then I don't see why anyone should be surprised if the Braves do something similar next year. A young team seems to outplay their projection every year.
If the Marlins can contend for the wildcard, then I don't see why anyone should be surprised if the Braves do something similar next year. A young team seems to outplay their projection every year.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I think it needs to be said, that everyone who is in favor of trading one or both of FF/JT clearly want an overpay to make it happen. I think the difference between sides is whether the Braves actively seek said over pay or just go with plan B right away and compete with what you got. I personally think you go out and work other teams for that overpay and if you are not successful, you build around them and see where you are at the deadline.
I liken this debate to playing franchise mode on Madden. I used to love doing that with my nephew and building franchises through the draft. We never had a player over 25 on the roster. The only draw back is we could only do it in coach mode. If we simulated every season in owner mode we'd go bankrupt due to the losing and lack of attendance.
This is why I was so surprised when Coppy told the Pirates that Julio wouldn't be dealt (before the deadline). Apparently didn't even give them a list of names to make them hang up. Not sure I wouldn't have said "maybe I'll turn him loose for Meadows and Bell or Meadows, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Elias Diaz".
Trading Teheran is a no brainer with the volatility of young arms and his likely current value.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
To me it's the difference of hoping for a long shot to pay off (it does happen) and building the foundation of a consistent long term winner like the Cubs have done. The Cubs haven't been perfect (signing Heyward was a head scratching and costly mistake, but they have the money) but they have been patient and mostly stuck to their plan. They have young stars all over the field, have made some shrewd FA signings (some mistakes as well) and still have a reasonably good minor league system that should feed them young talent for several more years. They are going to be a force to deal with for the next 5-6 years. They are not a one or two year wonder.
If you look at a team like Kansas City, they pretty much have to build for the peaks and valleys. They don't have the payroll capacity to scale up with their young talent. So, they will cycle up and down. They are on their way down now.
Teams with virtually unlimited money will try to buy their seat at the top every year. They get knocked out of that position when they make one too many bad investments like getting old all at the same time with players far past their prime but paid like they aren't (AROD, Sabathia, Tex, etc.).
The teams in the middle (Atlanta, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis, etc.) must try to build waves of talent that they can ride to the top and still have those waves wash up every so often to help keep them there. Saying that all the talent will ripen at the same time and the team will magically be good is just not correct and not the point I'm trying to make at all. I'm saying you have to have waves of talent pushing up and the first real wave of talent pushing into Atlanta may start next year and will hopefully continue for several successive years.
I believe that the Braves front office looked into the challenge and could not face it and have now preempted the full rebuild because of the demands of moving into a new park. This will likely lead to a rebuild that is not maximized in it's effectiveness. It could still possibly be good enough, especially if enough new payroll is pumped in that they can buy their way out of mistakes and shortcomings. That's the best case. The middle case is that the rebuild completely falls flat, all the Johns are fired and ownership brings in new management that will do the rebuild right (but it takes 5 more years). The worst case scenario is that the rebuild is just good enough to allow all the John's to keep their jobs, but not good enough to allow the team to move out of baseball purgatory, not ever dead last but not ever good enough to actually win anything.
The Marlins should not be a surprise. I hammered the over season win total when in Vegas (yikes on Stanton injury)
We have nowhere near the position player talent of the Marlins....Yelich, Ozuna, Stanton, Dietrich, Gordon....we have Freeman and pray for solid years from two rookie middle infielders.
Again, history repeating itself. Sorry for repeating this, but it's not unlike the situation that the club will find itself in soon enough. In 1991, the Braves were picked by every pre-season prognositication publication. (Not sure if these even exist anymore? : D ) All of them predicted another last place finish.
Everybody expected that Glavine and Smoltz were going to be good, and that Avery was a golden boy coming up. They currently have a decent stable of young arms, but not personally of the belief that 2 or 3 are ready to emerge this soon. Remember, Glavine & Smoltz each had a few years of major league experience, and had been taking their knocks.
Bill James was right, at the time, that a team needed a few "career years" for a team to win a division. They did get that from Pendleton and Justice. Taking a step back. The FA acquistions before that season were Pendleton, Bream, Belliard and then that move for Dion. (Otix Nixon was acquired via trade with Montreal.) These filled all definite needs, and in the case of Pendleton and Bream, they provided leadership.
So, at least with Kemp, they're signaling that they're attempting to wind down the rebuild. Don't see them wanting to trade JT at this point, but don't see him as de facto #1 either. So, they'll probably go after staff ace by trade over winter (Sale?) and wouldn't be shocked if they attempt again to bring back Shelby Miller for him to regain his form and use him as a #3.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I agree, but I understand why they aren't doing it, Julio's value only goes up if he finishes the year strong. If he keeps pitching well, he will have regained all the value he lost last year. Add in it's an offseason trade which often nets you more return.
I think that's the main motivation to not moving Julio is to rebuild his value first before even listening.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
If we trade JT, why would we not trade FF. I don't see the logic in trading one but not the other. Trade JT, you kick the can down the road but if you trade both, I don't think you kick the can much farther down the road.. so if you trade JT, then you might as well trade FF.
The major difference is we already have potential replacements for JT on the farm even if they are a few years away. There are no current replacements for the type of hitter FF is. To replace him would cost several farm pieces or major money.
Position players are less volatile. We know what we're getting out of Freeman. Between injuries and ineffectiveness you can't say the same about most pitchers outside of the elite. The reason to trade JT would be to get that young catcher or 3b we can pencil in with Albies, Swanson, Mallez/Ender, and Freeman for the next 4 years.
I agree with most of this. I don't think I've read anyone saying it's time to trade the farm, sign the biggest free agents, lose our draft picks and hope everything turns out ok. I don't think it's as black and white as going for it all and tanking.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Are you guys telling me that we could not get possibly 2 -3 FF type hitters that are only a ~2 years away (similar time lines as JT replacements) if we traded both JT and FF, plus a few solid prospect that are farther out? We are not giving JT and FF away. So replacements don't always have to come from what we have now. plus you have the potential Viz trade if he rebounds.