I have literally seen no comments here suggesting he is a good defender. The closest have been a few TIC comments, and the occasional "it doesn't make much difference," but nobody thinks he is a good defender.
Olivera traded for Kemp
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JohnAdcox
Brian Jordan's New BFF
To be fair, there were a few "not as bad as I expected" type comments. One of them was from me. But slightly better than abysmal is hardly the same as good, and I say that as a kind of sort of lukewarm fan of the trade.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I think with some weight loss and improved mobility, he could reach average defense.. which would be tremendous coupled with the bat he is providing. That of course assumes the bat doesn't disappear with the weight.
Agreed. Kemp has probably been overweight every year after his age 23 season, his only season with positive defensive value. I think he was overweight at age 21 and 22, then got in shape for the age 23 season.
I agree... "not as bad as expected" does not equate with "good." I am fine with viewing Kemp as a bounceback guy. I am guessing he has been better than the FO expected, or even hoped. That makes it ONE of the moves that has accelerated the rebuild just a little bit. Still a long way to go, but if Kemp keeps being the guy he has been lately (and was earlier in his career), then the team can be better than a lot of us expected next year. It leaves one less hole that needs to be filled, making a couple of others more of a possibility.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I'm having a hard time seeing how .295/.346/.521 over 1/3 of a season results in 0.6 oWAR/0.0 WAR. Kemp has been very good. He's a bison in left, it's true, but he's also one at bat...0.6? Geez
It's really simple. UZR (used in fangraphs) sees him as a bad defender thus he's been worth 0.5 WAR a third of the season. Baseball ref (DRS) sees him as pathetic defender who should be DHing and his defense cancels out his offense. The truth is likely somewhere in between on Kemp's defense. On fangraphs model Kemp's time with the Braves projects to 1.6 WAR over a full season. I see no problem with that. He's been a good hitter and a bad defender so that puts him in the ~average range overall.
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
If he loses around 20 lbs off season, he can approach average defense. Being happy, a #4 hitter and playing for the next contract is motivation. Being in Cali, you are in the light all the time. I don't think he likes it at all. So the optimism in me say 40 110 .285 next year with average defense. I can live with that. But Freeman can be 36 110 .320 batting in front of him with more strikes to deal with. He is second or third in the league in K's now and that is alarming but he was doing too much when he had no protection. His k rate will go down next year, I guarantee that.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
In his age 23 season he stole 35 bases. In his age 24 season he stole 34. In his age 26 season he stole 40. I don't know what his weight has been over the years, but he had above average speed and mobility until his late 20s.
He does look overweight to me and also has had hip, leg and foot issues that probably have cost him some mobility regardless of weight. I don't think his hitting will be much affected if he loses 20 pounds. It will help his defense but probably not enough to move him to average at his position. Losing some weight will also probably reduce injury risk.
Can you? Haha
I think anyone hoping for anything approaching average defense, at any age, is crazy. He wasn't overweight at 26, he was in great shape then. And an in-shape 23-year-old is far different than an in-shape 32-year-old. He's a bad defender and it's not just because of his range. He is shaky making even routine plays.
Also, I'm not sure someone who dated Rihanna can ever qualify as 'not liking being in the light.'
He has 1.2 oWAR with the Braves according to Bwar at least, it's his defense that cancels it out, as always. As wupk said, at little over 1 WAR over the course of a full season is pretty reasonable for how Kemp is performing right now given his horrid defense.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
The source I was looking at had him at .6 oWAR in just under 1/3 of a season with ATL. That seems light for a guy at .295/.346/.521 8% BB, 10 HR, 35 RBI, etc. That's what I was complaining about.
To say he gives all his value back because he's a ****ty outfielder is just silly, but I won't beat that drum again. I feel like he's been better than an average player offensively, and it's not close.
chop2chip
Well-known member
He has been better than average offensively. He's at a .124 wRC+ as a Brave, which is by definition 24% better than average.
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
Good singer, lousy and venomous person.
Offense around the league is up this year compared to the last few seasons. His offense with the Braves comes out to a 124 WRC+. That's in the "good" category imo. For example other players in that range for the whole season are Carlos Beltran, Nolan Areando(coors factor), and Justin Turner. On the season those 3 have produced 1.6-1.9 oWAR. An average hitter is someone like Inciarte. He has produced -0.1 oWAR. So you are right that Kemp's offense with the Braves is nowhere close to average.
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
Good to know. A healthy and revamped Kemp, what do you expect? I am still saying .280 40 and 110 and AVERAGE defense. Like I said I can live with that defense if he is putting up .850 OPS minimum. He has struck out less than Freeman in more at bats, but he hates taking walks ala Andruw Jones. Maybe he is more selective next year.
The way B-Ref and Fangraphs add things together is a little different. For example oWAR from B-Ref includes hitting, base running, position adjustment, and replacement level factor. dWAR includes DRS fielding and the position adjustment. It's why you can't add those 2 togethor for bWAR as it adds the position adjustment twice.
Fangraphs on the other had just lists out each component separately in their value section. Both Fangraphs and B-Ref show Kemp as being +6 runs as a hitter with the Braves. Again the two major factors is the defense. UZR has kemp as bad and DRS pretty much says Kemp should DH fulltime.
Honestly I don't see Kemp ever getting back to average defense. He's on the wrong side of 30 for that. Hard to say on the avg/homer/rbi train because we really don't know how Sun Trust will play. I would hope for 30+ homers though. I think he will be between a 120-130 WRC+ hitter and if he's serious about losing weight then I could see only being -10 runs defensively but that may be stretching that. If he were to do that he would be around a 2.4 WAR player. I think that's the max we can get out of him.
Realistically I think his WAR next year will be in the high 1's though.
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
I agree. Average defense to me is getting to routine fly balls. I don't recall many triples hit into left field, that is very hard to do.
Well, beyond that angle much of the problem with Kemp is letting singles turn into doubles, which he does a fair bit. Beyond his poor range, Kemp has had problems throwing quite a bit and that makes up a fair portion of his negative defensive value the past couple years (for example, 3 of of the 14 negative runs DRS has him responsible for as a Brave are due to his arm).