Someone mentioned how poorly he performed in winter ball, but I couldn't remember how bad. When I looked, it was surprising how little power he displayed, as big as his swing is, but also, with a big swing, how do you strike out just once in close to seventy plate appearances? I have to think that while his winter was disappointing, the overall results were too anomalous to put a great deal of stock into them. If the reports on his work ethic and makeup weren't so good, I'd be really concerned, but since they are, I am at least a little hopeful.
Olivera
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
.275/.335
So you put more stock into his winter ball numbers than his major league numbers? Why?
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
100% this
It's one thing to miss on his bat. It's another to miss so badly on bat and glove. Bailing on 3b already is terrible
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
This looks about right.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I was under the impression that was not settled yet, that they were going to look at him in both positions.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Well, Rico, I think you're on to something here. They as much as said they were afraid of Wood's health. I was afraid of his dipping velocity. Peraza, you nailed that. Somebody's bound to figure out he doesn't walk and has no power.
But the other thing is this - we don't have much money at all tied up in Olivera. If we were wrong it's not a tragedy, unless we were also wrong about Wood. We cut our losses and move along.
striker42
Well-known member
He posted a .646 OPS in winter ball. He hit .163 in the minors for us. But I'm not basing everything on his performance against weak competition. I watched him play when he was in Atlanta. What I saw was a guy who struggles mightily to make solid contact and, honestly, I didn't care for his swing. Olivera's game is based on spraying line drives all over the field. He's not a lumbering power hitter with a great batting eye and huge swing that yields few hits but lots of HRs. If he's going to struggle making solid contact he's not going to give us much.
But I'm just a fan. Lets see if my observations were backed up by stats.
According to Fangraphs, 14,7% of his batted balls were hard hit, 52.9% were medium, and 32.4% were softly hit. A line of 20% hard hit , 55% medium, and 25% soft is considered "awful". Fangraphs doesn't list anything below awful. His LD% was 16.2% while league average is 21%. His infield fly ball percentage was 25%, league average is 11%.
This tells me that I was right in what I was seeing. Olivera was very, very bad at barreling the ball and hitting it with authority. This coupled with the fact that he's been unimpressive against inferior competition makes me very concerned.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
he was also like just coming back and hadn't played in a long time before that.
it's almost guaranteed he hits better than your prediction unless you think he's among the absolute worst hitters in the league.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
John Hart was indeed not lying to us.
Scott Rolen at age 30: .235 BA .323 OBP .383 SLG .706 OPS
Travis Fryman age 30: .255 BA .309 OBP .410 SLG .719 OPS
so there you have it. That's pretty much what I expect out of HO, with below average defense.
Scott Rolen at age 30: .235 BA .323 OBP .383 SLG .706 OPS
Travis Fryman age 30: .255 BA .309 OBP .410 SLG .719 OPS
so there you have it. That's pretty much what I expect out of HO, with below average defense.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
Well that's what happens when you fantasize about something, then it actually becomes reality without really thinking about it. It's kinda like that girl, you know, you always think about how great it would be to, you know, do things to because she looks great...and then you it finally becomes reality and she drops her clothes and well...it's nothing like you thought it would be like.
striker42
Well-known member
Like I said earlier, my actual prediction is pretty much in line with Dalyn's .237 .283 .332. A low .600's OPS seems about right. So I went super pessimistic with my post.
As far as the comeback thing, if that was having a huge impact I would have expected him to improve as he settled in. He didn't. Barring that I would have expected him to have a good winter league. That was chance for him to go out there healthy, surrounded by a familiar language and hit inferior pitching. Instead he was again unimpressive.
I think there's an even money chance that Olivera isn't a major league quality player. He's not got much of a glove so his value is entirely based on his bat. If he comes out and hits in the .230's with few walks and not much pop, he's not even a bench player, he's a AAA bat. To me, with his defensive limitations, he has to hit north of .240 with a .300 OBP and a SLG% of .380 or better to even be worth a bench spot. He's going to need to hit about .260, .310+, .400+ to be worth even running a starting spot in even our poor lineup.
My wildest hopes for him is that he ends up as a slightly below average to average hitter which doesn't play well in left. If he could pick it at third I'd be much more optimistic about him becoming a contributor. As is, I think the Braves are starting to show a little desperation with him. I don't think he's they player they were expecting at all. They were 100% wrong about his glove and I'd be shocked if they weren't concerned about being wrong about his bat.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I'm hoping for an OPS around .750. I think he will be better than what some in here think, but I don't think he's a world-beater either. He should be able to contribute. The perceived lack of defensive ability at 3B is the biggest problem for me.
I'm afraid my eyes told me the same thing when I watched him play. He was constantly fooled by breaking balls and lunged at them. It was almost like watching a high school kid when he finally faces a pitcher with a pro-level breaking pitch for the first time. All we can hope is it's just a matter of being rusty because he did perform well in the Dodgers farm system the short time he was healthy.
Even more concerning was his defense at 3B, particularly his throws. He used that sidearm motion that produces looping/tailing throws to 1B, much like Zimmerman used to do when he had a bad arm before he moved to 1B. I never saw Olivera come over the top with a solid throw, and it makes me think something is wrong with his arm because there's no way he got good scouting grades on defense with throws like that in the past.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
Two things occur. First, I imagine our scouting picture of Olivera was based primarily on a couple of workouts from this winter. I'd have to think that we'd have a much deeper scouting background on any player we targeted from another organization—particularly in the last two offseasons, since we've brought in so many folks from other organizations who still presumably have some insight into the points of view of those orgs.
Second, have they been so dead-on correct about that talent? Sure, there's no reason to say that they haven't, so far, but neither is there really much evidence that they have. Don't you think it'll take at least another year or so to be able to say?
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
I really do think that some of us have been hasty in judgement of Olive. Seriously, the guy had barely played baseball at all in the last two years, and it's got to take some time to get the rust off and otherwise calibrate things. I really think we need to see him for a reasonable amount of time before we can confidently say if he's a scrub or not.
He played a handful of games in our minor league system. Does his time in LA system not count as well?
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I was damn excited at first, I mean, look at what we had. But man it sucks thinking about what we could of gotten for Alex. Heck, we could of kept him, he's been excellent. He'd be a perfect number 3-5 guy. Teheran, Newcomb, Blair, Wood... lots more to come to that.