One More Punt???

[dak]

I feel that we have enough core talent, enough $, and enough surplus talent to trade from at AA and above to be in playoff contention deep into September. Barring significant injury issues to key players, I think it's fair for fans to have that expectation of this team in 2016.

 

[nsacpi]

I feel that we have enough core talent, enough $, and enough surplus talent to trade from at AA and above to be in playoff contention deep into September. Barring significant injury issues to key players, I think it's fair for fans to have that expectation of this team in 2016.

With the current roster and 25-30M we have for new player salaries, I see us as a 75-80 win team in 2016. With some luck that translates into meaningful September games. But luck will have to be on our side.

With the additional money likely to be budgeted for 2017, I think we move into the 80-85 expected win range in 2017. Once you get into that range all you need is neutral luck to play meaningful games in September.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I have thought about this a lot and I think we should trade Miller and Teheran. I dont trust either one to be a top of the rotation starter going forward. If I had to keep one it would be Teheran to see if he can rebound. I wouldnt trade Julio unless another team values him like a top of the rotation starter. Kind of like the Hudson situation many years ago.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Price at 30m per year for 7 years ok with you?

yes if that's what it takes. The only concern for me is length of contract. It's certain that he won't be the pitcher he is then that he is today. However, the going rate for an ACE won't be what it is now either. The question is about health. He has shown no signs of any health problems but it is always a question for pitchers. He could be the Glavine or Maddux going forward around which you build your staff. As he ages, his value shifts from TOR stud to potential HOF mentor for your young staff.

He's an intelligent, cerebral guy, not a meathead so he should fit the role well, assuming health. He also doesn't cost you a pick which is worth something. In general, I would prefer Greinke for the role because he will require less years. However, he will cost a pick which is a bit of a hidden cost and Price is LH which is an added value.

As for cost, short term it isn't an issue if you have traded the other salary such as with Freeman, Teheran, etc. You are counting on the trades of those players to bring back good, young controllable talent that likely will be the core of the team for the next seven years but unlikely to play any role in 2016 and a limited role in 2017 with some possibly taking longer than that. That young talent wouldn't begin to get expensive until 4-5 years from now.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

With the current roster and 25-30M we have for new player salaries, I see us as a 75-80 win team in 2016. With some luck that translates into meaningful September games. But luck will have to be on our side.

With the additional money likely to be budgeted for 2017, I think we move into the 80-85 expected win range in 2017. Once you get into that range all you need is neutral luck to play meaningful games in September.

I just don't see it anywhere. The SP is just "ok" and that's assuming repeat performance from Miller and improvement from Teheran and decent improvement by the youngsters. It's NOT a strength unless you add a TOR guy which pushes Miller to 2 and Teheran to 3 and allows you to mix and match with best at 4 &5. The problem is, to do that you have to blow essentially all your cash.

The pen is in shambles. Viz is a ? for closer and certainly can't be considered elite at this point. Set up is largely dependent on the return of several TJ guys. There's no real LH guys with any track record. They need 2-3 guys just to get back to average. There is nowhere, no how they field a KC level pen or anywhere close.

The offense is putrid. Essentially your one real offensive threat might improve a bit based on his recovery from injury but he's not going to carry the entire team. Outside of that you are rolling the dice on improvement across the board at every other position just to get to average. And there is no internal help. And there is no realistic multiplier help (as opposed to incremental) on the FA market that will make any kind of difference taken as a solo addition.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

While we desperately need offense I don't think you sacrifice someone like a Simmons unless it is a profound over pay on the other teams side. Also I think you keep freeman to build around. Until this year he has been productive at the plate and in the field. Also been in the lineup consistently. Again, unless a gross overpay I think you keep him.

The one I think you do consider moving this offseason is Teheran. With the amount of pitching that we have in our system I think you can move a Teheran and not take a big step back. You can add a bat,bull pen piece, and/or prospects. I think something like that would not say we are punting again, rather than dealing from a position of strength/depth.

 

[clvclv]

yes if that's what it takes. The only concern for me is length of contract. It's certain that he won't be the pitcher he is then that he is today. However, the going rate for an ACE won't be what it is now either. The question is about health. He has shown no signs of any health problems but it is always a question for pitchers. He could be the Glavine or Maddux going forward around which you build your staff. As he ages, his value shifts from TOR stud to potential HOF mentor for your young staff.

He's an intelligent, cerebral guy, not a meathead so he should fit the role well, assuming health. He also doesn't cost you a pick which is worth something. In general, I would prefer Greinke for the role because he will require less years. However, he will cost a pick which is a bit of a hidden cost and Price is LH which is an added value.

As for cost, short term it isn't an issue if you have traded the other salary such as with Freeman, Teheran, etc. You are counting on the trades of those players to bring back good, young controllable talent that likely will be the core of the team for the next seven years but unlikely to play any role in 2016 and a limited role in 2017 with some possibly taking longer than that. That young talent wouldn't begin to get expensive until 4-5 years from now.

That's part of the point. Let's assume the $30 million-ish figure we've been told is right. Blow it on a Price or Greinke - but keep both in the loop when discussing "The Plan". Both guys are intelligent and keep close eyes on where their potential suitors are headed (we've all heard those reports). Make them understand that the first half will be rough, but the cavalry should start to arrive during the second half (and no later than Opening Day 2017. Start the season with one of them at the top of the rotation followed by Minor, Wisler, Perez, and one of Folty, Banuelos, or Weber. You'll have the other two percolating along with Jenkins and Sims in Gwinnett. Sims looks like he might've finally figured things out, so there's your #2 come midseason. If Folty finally does the same, by midseason you're looking at...

#1 - Price/Greinke
#2 - Sims
#3 - Minor
#4 - Folty
#5- Wisler

Plenty of depth still in Gwinnett, and another lefty to replace Minor if he's dealt at the deadline or allowed to walk next winter. By that time you could conceivably start to see signs from Fried, Toussaint, and Allard who could all come fast if they show progress. Spend the ~$32,500,000 due Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, Miller, and Maybin on rentals like Uribe, Alexi Ramirez/Jimmy Rollins, Mike Napoli/Mark Reynolds/Garrett Jones who might not get Price or Greinke embarassed every fifth day until the guys you get in return for Julio/Shelby/Freddie/Simba force their way onto the roster. Depending on the return and progress of those guys, the lineup could conceivably turn almost completely over by the time the second half rolls around.

The point is that I actually believe the Johns when they say Lester was the "right Pitcher, wrong time" and that he was seriously interested when we talked with him. If you put any stock in the things we've heard about Price and Greinke and their soft spots for the Braves, there's little reason to believe they wouldn't be just as interested if they see what's coming.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

That's part of the point. Let's assume the $30 million-ish figure we've been told is right. Blow it on a Price or Greinke - but keep both in the loop when discussing "The Plan". Both guys are intelligent and keep close eyes on where their potential suitors are headed - we've all heard those reports). Make them understand that the first half will be rough, but the cavalry should start to arrive during the second half (and no later than Opening Day 2017. Start the season with one of them at the top of the rotation followed by Minor, Wisler, Perez, and one of Folty, Banuelos, or Weber. You'll have the other two percolating along with Jenkins and Sims in Gwinnett. Sims looks like he might've finally figured things out, so there's your #2 come midseason. If Folty finally does the same, by midseason you're looking at...

#1 - Price/Greinke
#2 - Sims
#3 - Minor
#4 - Folty
#5- Wisler

Plenty of depth still in Gwinnett, and another lefty to replace Minor if he's dealt at the deadline or allowed to walk next winter. By that time you could conceivably start to see signs from Fried, Toussaint, and Allard who could all come fast if they show progress. Spend the ~$32,500,000 due Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, Miller, and Maybin on rentals like Uribe, Alexi Ramirez/Jimmy Rollins, Mike Napoli/Mark Reynolds/Garrett Jones who might not get Price or Greinke embarassed every fifth day until the guys you get in return for Julio/Shelby/Freddie/Simba force their way onto the roster. Depending on the return and progress of those guys, the lineup could conceivably turn almost completely over by the time the second half rolls around.

Exactly. Plus Swisher and Bourn come off the books after 2016 if not before. I personally would move Markakis as well and use that $11M for a second pitcher since that is where you find value this offseason. Or you could do another "take on a bad contract" for talent swap and go big after 2016 for a Strasbourg type guy if you wanted...

 

[Millwood1Hitter]

That's part of the point. Let's assume the $30 million-ish figure we've been told is right. Blow it on a Price or Greinke - but keep both in the loop when discussing "The Plan". Both guys are intelligent and keep close eyes on where their potential suitors are headed (we've all heard those reports). Make them understand that the first half will be rough, but the cavalry should start to arrive during the second half (and no later than Opening Day 2017. Start the season with one of them at the top of the rotation followed by Minor, Wisler, Perez, and one of Folty, Banuelos, or Weber. You'll have the other two percolating along with Jenkins and Sims in Gwinnett. Sims looks like he might've finally figured things out, so there's your #2 come midseason. If Folty finally does the same, by midseason you're looking at...

#1 - Price/Greinke
#2 - Sims
#3 - Minor
#4 - Folty
#5- Wisler

Plenty of depth still in Gwinnett, and another lefty to replace Minor if he's dealt at the deadline or allowed to walk next winter. By that time you could conceivably start to see signs from Fried, Toussaint, and Allard who could all come fast if they show progress. Spend the ~$32,500,000 due Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, Miller, and Maybin on rentals like Uribe, Alexi Ramirez/Jimmy Rollins, Mike Napoli/Mark Reynolds/Garrett Jones who might not get Price or Greinke embarassed every fifth day until the guys you get in return for Julio/Shelby/Freddie/Simba force their way onto the roster. Depending on the return and progress of those guys, the lineup could conceivably turn almost completely over by the time the second half rolls around.

The point is that I actually believe the Johns when they say Lester was the "right Pitcher, wrong time" and that he was seriously interested when we talked with him. If you put any stock in the things we've heard about Price and Greinke and their soft spots for the Braves, there's little reason to believe they wouldn't be just as interested if they see what's coming.

OK OK now, Mark, thanks for that....now go eat some chicken or something!

BTW, I agree with a lot of what you posted, although I would still keep one of Miller/Tehran and be more than willing to trade Markakis in a deal to get his salary off the books.

I don't think we're going to punt, Fredi said he's never seen it before, he doesn't understand how to punt a baseball, so I guess that answers that.

 

[bravesnumberone]

I'm open to moving Simmons, but as young, cheap and controllable as he is, I don't think you give him away. In this regard, I'd try to get someone to overpay. I don't see why you trade Freeman with nothing substantial behind him, unless we're going to decide Olivera is a first baseman and we're getting a can't miss pitcher. Teheran has failed to convince me. With Miller, if we're trading him in the offseason, why did we even bother getting him? Just to give us an extra 5-6 wins in a year we knew wasn't going to turn out well? Is Tyrell Jenkins the savior? Were the Cardinals not willing to part with another pitching prospect or just didn't value Miller all that much?

You can say what you want about payroll and how it's likely to go up from 2017 going forward. Let me clue you in: The new park will not solve everything financially. People will not continue to come on those numerous week night games when the team completely sucks. If we continue to have this mindset that we're going to blow things up, horde prospects and always be psyching ourselves up that we're going to be the Royals Part 2, or that we're going to come up with the next Harvey/Syndergaard/Matz/DeGrom/Wheeler rotation, we're not going to go anywhere. A lot has to go right for any of that to come close to materializing.

If we're having to do this again, maybe it's a reflection on how last offseason's moves simply aren't paying off. That we misfired and didn't get enough, but went through with it so we could "make sure to at least get some value." The whole front office was a walking contradiction last year. We gave up young talent for Olivera because a scout or two had a chubby for him. We signed old-ass, no-power Nick Markakis to a 4-year, $40 million deal and gave most of our playing time at catcher to an old prick. Why? So they could show the young guys how you're supposed to lose with grace? So we could be "palatable?"

Does anyone actually give a **** whether we won 67 or 47 games? Half of you were bitching that we didn't get the No. 1 pick, that we didn't tank to get it, so we could get the No. 1 pick and then turn around in three years and trade them because the return would be enormous.

Organizations should be about moving forward. The Mets aren't likely to go anywhere anytime soon. The Nats will continue to be a threat. Who really knows with the Marlins, but with new leadership, the Phillies won't be down forever.

All I can say for this one is it's pissing in the wind. I don't have any interest in returning to the dark days, becoming another farm system for the big boys.

So yeah, we aren't going anywhere in 2016. Let's make a video game out of it. Trade every piece we have for people that might be pieces one day. Rinse, recycle, repeat.

By the time we're ready to win a championship in 2024, I'll be Dennis Quaid/Jim Morris leading the charge.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Right now, payroll stands at about $72M with estimated raises for Miller and Minor. So, there's about $30M available. Assuming about 5M to fill out the roster with guys who are ML minimum are just above, that leaves you about $25M to go after FA. That's enough to sign one of Greinke, Price, Heyward or Upton assuming you shed a guy like Minor or Maybin. But, you can do nothing else. No pen. No catcher. Nothing.

If you go the other way and avoid the high end guys, you likely can get one FA SP for $15M like Leake and maybe a reliever or two or a low end catcher. Still, not going to move the needle.

But, IF, I say IF, you continue to churn, you could move as much as $50M more off the books in the forms of Freeman, Simmons, Markakis, Teheran, Miller and Minor (NT) if you wished. All except Minor have trade value, some SIGNIFICANT, trade value. Assuming you move ALL, which I don't think they will, you could have as much as $75M to spend on FA and trades in the offseason PLUS reap the return from the trades in the form of young talent and still come in at the $100M mark.

You would then have another $14M to spend (plus whatever increase is allowed as they go into the new stadium) after 2016 with the exits of Bourn and Swisher.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Right now, payroll stands at about $72M with estimated raises for Miller and Minor. So, there's about $30M available. Assuming about 5M to fill out the roster with guys who are ML minimum are just above, that leaves you about $25M to go after FA. That's enough to sign one of Greinke, Price, Heyward or Upton assuming you shed a guy like Minor or Maybin. But, you can do nothing else. No pen. No catcher. Nothing.

If you go the other way and avoid the high end guys, you likely can get one FA SP for $15M like Leake and maybe a reliever or two or a low end catcher. Still, not going to move the needle.

But, IF, I say IF, you continue to churn, you could move as much as $50M more off the books in the forms of Freeman, Simmons, Markakis, Teheran, Miller and Minor (NT) if you wished. All except Minor have trade value, some SIGNIFICANT, trade value. Assuming you move ALL, which I don't think they will, you could have as much as $75M to spend on FA and trades in the offseason PLUS reap the return from the trades in the form of young talent and still come in at the $100M mark.

You would then have another $14M to spend (plus whatever increase is allowed as they go into the new stadium) after 2016 with the exits of Bourn and Swisher.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2015/10/26/9611148/2016-atlanta-braves-payroll-outlook
this article has it closer to 89 million. give or take a few. I also thought that the Tribe sent $15 million where the article says $10. But that still puts payroll around 82 to 85 million as of today.

Trading Freeman would only save 12 million from that total, but 20 million in 2017. Add that to Bourn and Swisher being gone and that frees up 14 to 19 million more (depending if you believe the tribe sent 10 or 15 mill). taking the lower amount you still now have 34 million.. plus Maybin is off the books (if he isn't already by this year).. that is another 8 million.. So there would be 43 million to spend in 2017 without any payroll increase, which there should be...

that is a lot of bank right there. you could possibly spend some of that future money this year to grab a front line pitcher..

 

[clvclv]

I'm open to moving Simmons, but as young, cheap and controllable as he is, I don't think you give him away. In this regard, I'd try to get someone to overpay. I don't see why you trade Freeman with nothing substantial behind him, unless we're going to decide Olivera is a first baseman and we're getting a can't miss pitcher. Teheran has failed to convince me. With Miller, if we're trading him in the offseason, why did we even bother getting him? Just to give us an extra 5-6 wins in a year we knew wasn't going to turn out well? Is Tyrell Jenkins the savior? Were the Cardinals not willing to part with another pitching prospect or just didn't value Miller all that much?

You can say what you want about payroll and how it's likely to go up from 2017 going forward. Let me clue you in: The new park will not solve everything financially. People will not continue to come on those numerous week night games when the team completely sucks. If we continue to have this mindset that we're going to blow things up, horde prospects and always be psyching ourselves up that we're going to be the Royals Part 2, or that we're going to come up with the next Harvey/Syndergaard/Matz/DeGrom/Wheeler rotation, we're not going to go anywhere. A lot has to go right for any of that to come close to materializing.

If we're having to do this again, maybe it's a reflection on how last offseason's moves simply aren't paying off. That we misfired and didn't get enough, but went through with it so we could "make sure to at least get some value." The whole front office was a walking contradiction last year. We gave up young talent for Olivera because a scout or two had a chubby for him. We signed old-ass, no-power Nick Markakis to a 4-year, $40 million deal and gave most of our playing time at catcher to an old prick. Why? So they could show the young guys how you're supposed to lose with grace? So we could be "palatable?"

Does anyone actually give a **** whether we won 67 or 47 games? Half of you were bitching that we didn't get the No. 1 pick, that we didn't tank to get it, so we could get the No. 1 pick and then turn around in three years and trade them because the return would be enormous.

Organizations should be about moving forward. The Mets aren't likely to go anywhere anytime soon. The Nats will continue to be a threat. Who really knows with the Marlins, but with new leadership, the Phillies won't be down forever.

All I can say for this one is it's pissing in the wind. I don't have any interest in returning to the dark days, becoming another farm system for the big boys.

So yeah, we aren't going anywhere in 2016. Let's make a video game out of it. Trade every piece we have for people that might be pieces one day. Rinse, recycle, repeat.

By the time we're ready to win a championship in 2024, I'll be Dennis Quaid/Jim Morris leading the charge.

1.) I'm open to moving Simmons, but as young, cheap and controllable as he is, I don't think you give him away. In this regard, I'd try to get someone to overpay. You don't see 6 years of an MLB-ready RF who projects to hit 30+ HRs a season, 6 years of an MLB-ready Catcher who projects to hit 20+ HRs a season and 6 years of an MLB-ready power lefty who projects as a Closer as an overpay for a player whose career OPS+ is 85 and his entire WAR value is 80+% tied to his glove in this age when offense is at such a premium??? Yes, Simmons saved 25 runs with his glove in 2015 - Judge and Sanchez project to drive in 130+ with their bats.

2.) I don't see why you trade Freeman with nothing substantial behind him, unless we're going to decide Olivera is a first baseman and we're getting a can't miss pitcher. If you sign the "can't-miss" Pitcher in Price or Greinke, doesn't it make more sense to acquire controllable offense if at all possible??? Everybody's been swinging from the Cubs' jock because of all the controllable bats they've accumulated. What this organization has always done well is draft and develop Pitchers - especially those diamonds-in-the-rough that turn into #3-#5 SPs. If you have the stockpile of those (with even higher upside) that The Johns have already built, does it not make sense to spend on a front-line guy or two that have already proven that they're "can't miss" at the MLB level while keeping the rest of the roster cost-controlled for years to come? The news already broke today that they're transitioning Olivera to the OF for good, why not move him to 1B IF you can fill LF with another inexpensive power bat? Travis is coming fast and projects as a Freeman-type hitter, and Margot is a Top 30 prospect at a premium defensive position with a substantially higher ceiling than our current "answer" Mallex Smith and is on track to be ready by 2017 as well.

3.) Teheran has failed to convince me. I'll buy that, but he's certainly shown enough to land you a substantial hitter who's MLB-ready at a position of desperate need from a team like Colorado with nowhere to play him for the next 10 years.

4.) With Miller, if we're trading him in the offseason, why did we even bother getting him? Just to give us an extra 5-6 wins in a year we knew wasn't going to turn out well? Is Tyrell Jenkins the savior? Were the Cardinals not willing to part with another pitching prospect or just didn't value Miller all that much? Miller's value is substantially higher now than it was when we got him - he bought one year of a borderline all-star in Heyward (albeit one who's simply not a middle of the order bat) and had a career year. IF you could land Underwood, Contreras, and Cease from the Cubs for him, you've in essence turned one year of Heyward into 6 years of an almost-ready C or LF (Contreras was an infielder before the Cubs moved him behind the plate) that allows you to move Olivera to 1B (where he'd be much less apt to get hurt in his "old age", 7 years of a SP with Miller's upside (1 from Shelby and 6 from Underwood), 6 years of Jenkins, and 6 years of another potential Closer. The 2017 pen would actually resemble the current Royals' pen - Vizcaino/Simmons/Lindgren/Withrow/Cease/Rodriguez/Cabrera/and any of a number of the guys who don't ultimately win rotation spots.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

The Braves are gonna bad again in 2016. Not complete utter crap like they were, but still a very bad team. Barring some magnificent deals and/or signings the Braves will be bad while Hart is in charge.

 

[Hudson2]

What I would honestly do knowing we won't win anything big next year. I'd buy one big piece this offseason and then fix the offense next year going into the new stadium. I'd let Bethancourt just play the whole year and take his lumps, I'd let Adonis play 3rd, I'd trade Maybin for a good bullpen piece and sign another one, then I'd sign Greinke for 5/125 with an option. Our rotation would be set along with the bullpen. Our offense wouldnt be that great but again that would be the project for next offseason. This helps us check a couple of boxes off the wish list going into the new stadium bc the Johns aren't trading off anymore big pieces.

 

[Knucksie]

Next year is going to be poor anyway. Might consider some, but not all of them for trade. Freeman is untouchable. Miller - wouldn't even think about it.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

http://www.talkingchop.com/2015/10/26/9611148/2016-atlanta-braves-payroll-outlook
this article has it closer to 89 million. give or take a few. I also thought that the Tribe sent $15 million where the article says $10. But that still puts payroll around 82 to 85 million as of today.

Trading Freeman would only save 12 million from that total, but 20 million in 2017. Add that to Bourn and Swisher being gone and that frees up 14 to 19 million more (depending if you believe the tribe sent 10 or 15 mill). taking the lower amount you still now have 34 million.. plus Maybin is off the books (if he isn't already by this year).. that is another 8 million.. So there would be 43 million to spend in 2017 without any payroll increase, which there should be...

that is a lot of bank right there. you could possibly spend some of that future money this year to grab a front line pitcher..

I had it $15M coming back to the Braves as well. And I had Miller at $4M arby, and I didn't have the signing bonuses since they have already been paid (but, depending on accounting, the author may be right). Even so, the higher the payroll, the less to spend, which makes it even more imperative to keep making moves.

 

[zitothebrave]

I think the 15 came in partially last year and covers the option. I think 10 comes off next year IIRC.

I see 73M in Guaranteed, we'll probably get some insurance recoup from Grilli so it's probably a little less. So I think the 89 could be pretty danged close.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Next year is going to be poor anyway. Might consider some, but not all of them for trade. Freeman is untouchable. Miller - wouldn't even think about it.

To me, no one is untouchable. I know the whole "Freeman is the face of the franchise argument" and I don't buy it. He's the face because they have no one else. But, he's not even top three at his position in baseball. He's a very, very GOOD player. But, he's not a franchise guy, at least not yet. If you trade him, but sign Price or Greinke, THEN you have your franchise guy. Freeman is much more valuable in trade due to the current circumstances of the team. Same for Miller who is about to get real expensive assuming he continues to perform at 2015 levels or better, and there are a number of FA available this offseason as good or better. The fact that he's currently an economic bargain really means nothing for the Braves. By the time the team is in position to contend, assuming they ever are while he is on the team, he will NO LONGER be an economic bargain.

 

[zitothebrave]

I don't believe anyone is untouchable. But no way do I actively shop Freeman. He's the hardest player to replace on our roster, we need to get massive return for him. From a value point I mean like what the Tigers gave up for Miggy. Of course Maybin and Miller didn't amount to much but they were 2 top 10 prospects and Tigers ate Dontrelle Willis's contract.