Optimal Roster Construction

nsacpi said:
Grow your own stars and surround them with competent role players.

If we are to contend soon, that will be the formula.

I do think we have an Elite Six in the making: Freeman, Inciarte, Gohara, Acuna, Albies and Soroka.

That's going to be the foundation.
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Betcha Wright is better than Soroka.
 
Enscheff said:
Sig bet. Metric is fWAR. Bet has to extend over some number of control years, more than 1.

I'll let you fill in the rest
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If you lose you need to carry the following sig: The South Will Rise Again

Loser can concede early once it becomes clear they are gonna lose. Don't want to wait forever on this.
 
Enscheff said:
While I agree my plan leans more towards the "win now" side, I don't see how punting helps the Braves at all.

My whole theory is based around the assumption that the Braves will decrease payroll to the ~$110M range due to projected attendance of around 2.5 million in 2018. The only way that payroll figure goes up in 2019 is if the projected attendance gets closer to 3 million for 2019.

Attendance certainly isn't going to go up by punting another year, so if the Braves want to boost attendance and payroll, they better start winning some games.

Piscotty is NOT going to become a star. He will always be a "Deep" 1-2+ win player, but his contract is set, so no arbitration.

Rondon just got non-tendered, so it would be a mild surprise if he gets anything more than a 1 year deal. He is also an excellent bounce back candidate, in my opinion.

Frazier is the new Markakis, except he is being signed when it actually makes sense to sign an average aging player to a market rate contract...when the team is on the upswing.

The plan should be to get rid of all the scrubs, win a few games and become relevant, increase attendance, boost payroll, then go for bigger fish.
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If the Braves punt 2018 it let's them cycle Markakis out and get a year closer on moving Kemp out. It also allows you to evaluate in house young talent to see who will be in the Deep category or maybe even star category. Then you shop in the offseason from a deeper and better and possibly less expensive pool of Deep and Star players.

Punting 18 gives AA another year to settle the bad accounts before making the big push to contend. Let's say you go Frazier equivalent in 2019 vs Frazier in 2018. The immediate benefit is that the Frazier of 2020, suddenly becomes the Frazier of 2021.

The most important thing though IMO is that the number of scrub positions that have to be addressed could (should) be quite different after 2018. Even IF Teheran and/or Folty crater into scrub-dom in 2018, there still should be options ready to move in internally and be Deep. The more Scrub positions that can be made Deep or Star internally, the more money the Braves will have to add Star or Deep externally.

Addressing Scrub positions in 2018 ties up money and brings a Deep player (not enough money to realistically bring a star player) who may become scrub quality very quickly.

I think waiting one more year will allow the stronger possibility that the Braves can build more than just a Deep (mediocrity plus) team.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
If the Braves punt 2018 it let's them cycle Markakis out and get a year closer on moving Kemp out. It also allows you to evaluate in house young talent to see who will be in the Deep category or maybe even star category. Then you shop in the offseason from a deeper and better and possibly less expensive pool of Deep and Star players.

Punting 18 gives AA another year to settle the bad accounts before making the big push to contend. Let's say you go Frazier equivalent in 2019 vs Frazier in 2018. The immediate benefit is that the Frazier of 2020, suddenly becomes the Frazier of 2021.

The most important thing though IMO is that the number of scrub positions that have to be addressed could (should) be quite different after 2018. Even IF Teheran and/or Folty crater into scrub-dom in 2018, there still should be options ready to move in internally and be Deep. The more Scrub positions that can be made Deep or Star internally, the more money the Braves will have to add Star or Deep externally.

Addressing Scrub positions in 2018 ties up money and brings a Deep player (not enough money to realistically bring a star player) who may become scrub quality very quickly.

I think waiting one more year will allow the stronger possibility that the Braves can build more than just a Deep (mediocrity plus) team.
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The problem here is where do you expect to find your "Frazier equivalent" in 2019 (unless Riley is him)?

Available 3B free-agents not named Machado or Donaldson next winter...

Beltre
Gillaspie
Headley
Romine
 
clvclv said:
The problem here is where do you expect to find your "Frazier equivalent" in 2019 (unless Riley is him)?

Available 3B free-agents not named Machado or Donaldson next winter...

Beltre
Gillaspie
Headley
Romine
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There is also the trade market if we decide we need someone to play third. Its not just free agents.
 
nsacpi said:
There is also the trade market if we decide we need someone to play third. Its not just free agents.
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Obviously, but my point is why give up prospects and money for a Frazier-level player when you can just give up the money now and give yourself more time to better evaluate those prospects and possibly use them in other trades to fill other needs?

For example, why not sign Frazier and then use the prospects you're willing to move next winter to get a replacement for Kemp? If you don't play on Harper, Blackmon, McCutchen, or Adam Jones the pickings for a LF are pretty slim (again, unless Riley becomes the answer there) as well.
 
clvclv said:
Obviously, but my point is why give up prospects and money for a Frazier-level player when you can just give up the money now and give yourself more time to better evaluate those prospects and possibly use them in other trades to fill other needs?
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Cuz there are plusses and minusses to signing Frazier.
 
nsacpi said:
Cuz there are plusses and minusses to signing Frazier.
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Of course, but aren't there more pluses with him at 3B than minuses with Kemp in LF in 2019 when you're actually trying to contend?

Ideally (IMO), you land Frazier now for something like 3/$36 million, eat money and unload Kemp at some point prior to next winter, add one of Jones or McCutchen on a similar 3 year deal, and hold onto all the prospects to address other needs and injuries or a TOR arm. Sure it's a pie in the sky hope, but if Riley takes another step forward you package him with Soroka and Allard and get an Archer or Fulmer to front the staff. I just don't think you get a Jones or McCutchen on a reasonable enough deal.

If you're picturing a 3 year window while you still have Freeman and Inciarte, you're looking at 2019-2021. During that period you'd control Freddie, Ender, Albies, Swanson, Acuna, Folty, Newcomb, Gohara, and Wright, plus the additions of Frazier, Jones/McCutchen, and Archer/Fulmer.

Of course I'd love to do it all on the cheap. Houston's still looking to upgrade their pen. I'd call them and offer Vizcaino for Colin Moran. Then Moran plays 3B starting in 2018, Camargo becomes your cheap super-sub (especially in case Swanson continues to struggle), and Riley replaces the Markakis/Kemp platoon in LF in 2019. That leaves you the money you would've spent on a 3B this winter to use to get out from under Kemp.
 
clvclv said:
Of course, but aren't there more pluses with him at 3B than minuses with Kemp in LF in 2019 when you're actually trying to contend?

Ideally (IMO), you land Frazier now for something like 3/$36 million, eat money and unload Kemp at some point prior to next winter, add one of Jones or McCutchen on a similar 3 year deal, and hold onto all the prospects to address other needs and injuries or a TOR arm. Sure it's a pie in the sky hope, but if Riley takes another step forward you package him with Soroka and Allard and get an Archer or Fulmer to front the staff. I just don't think you get a Jones or McCutchen on a reasonable enough deal.

If you're picturing a 3 year window while you still have Freeman and Inciarte, you're looking at 2019-2021. During that period you'd control Freddie, Ender, Albies, Swanson, Acuna, Folty, Newcomb, Gohara, and Wright, plus the additions of Frazier, Jones/McCutchen, and Archer/Fulmer.

Of course I'd love to do it all on the cheap. Houston's still looking to upgrade their pen. I'd call them and offer Vizcaino for Colin Moran. Then Moran plays 3B starting in 2018, Camargo becomes your cheap super-sub (especially in case Swanson continues to struggle), and Riley replaces the Markakis/Kemp platoon in LF in 2019. That leaves you the money you would've spent on a 3B this winter to use to get out from under Kemp.
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Depends on how much you want to discount 2018 relative to 2019.

And I think it depends on how long a contract Frazier can command. I'm not opposed to signing him to the right sort of deal. My original point is that we have plenty of non-Frazier options both this off-season and next off-season if we decide to go external to fill third.
 
nsacpi said:
Depends on how much you want to discount 2018 relative to 2019.

And I think it depends on how long a contract Frazier can command. I'm not opposed to signing him to the right sort of deal. My original point is that we have plenty of non-Frazier options both this off-season and next off-season if we decide to go external to fill third.
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Just a matter of preference, really. There are definitely "plenty of non-Frazier options", I'm just not really a fan of those not named Moustakas or Moran personally. If you stay in-house, I think you're going all-in on Riley. I don't mind that at all, but I think that leaves no doubt you're punting the chance to get into that edge of the wildcard discussion in 2018. I love Camargo as much as the next guy, but as an everyday player his bat eventually gets exposed. That'd be fine if he was your SS, but for now he's not. You guys can juggle the projections and numbers however you like (and I don't doubt what they say), but I don't think a Kemp/Markakis platoon in LF and a Camargo/Ruiz platoon at 3B gets you there unless Julio has a serious bounceback and the other young arms take a big step forward right out of the gate.

If you don't play on Moustakas, I can't imagine you play on Donaldson next winter. Like many others, I'm not sure AA gets the go-ahead to tie that much money up in an older player like that no matter how much he likes or wants him. Even if he did and the idea is to eliminate as many scrubs as possible, wouldn't you come out better with a Frazier and Jones/McCutchen pairing for less money than a Donaldson/scrub in LF will cost you?

Again, I'm not really arguing your point - there are always options. I'm just as impatient as the "regular fan" is, and I agree with those that say if you're not trading Freeman you need to get closer to being relevant this season (and be there in 2019), or you need to go on and finish blowing it up and get what you can for Freddie, Ender, and Julio right away.
 
Frazier is a 2018 move that might be decent in 2019, and is probably bad in 2020. If the Braves are not pushing to compete in 2018 he doesn’t make sense. He is not the kind of player a team acquires to compete a year later.

I’ve been a proponent of grabbing Profar since it became apparent the Rangers will almost certainly trade him, but only if the Braves are punting 2018.
 
Enscheff said:
Frazier is a 2018 move that might be decent in 2019, and is probably bad in 2020. If the Braves are not pushing to compete in 2018 he doesn’t make sense. He is not the kind of player a team acquires to compete a year later.

I’ve been a proponent of grabbing Profar since it became apparent the Rangers will almost certainly trade him, but only if the Braves are punting 2018.
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that's how I see it on Frazier. Don't mess up my 2020 clean slate.

I have no problem with taking a flyer on Profar either. Sounds like a good idea.
 
Headley might be available if the Yankees trade for Stanton and need to move some contracts to stay below luxury tax thresholds. Prado, Solarte and Yandy Diaz are other trade options for third.
 
nsacpi said:
Headley might be available if the Yankees trade for Stanton and need to move some contracts to stay below luxury tax thresholds. Prado, Solarte and Yandy Diaz are other trade options for third.
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Headley for 1/13 actually makes a ton of sense for the Braves, especially if they are serious about keeping 3b open for Riley.

Cost of acquisition would be pretty minimal.
 
Enscheff said:
Headley for 1/13 actually makes a ton of sense for the Braves, especially if they are serious about keeping 3b open for Riley.

Cost of acquisition would be pretty minimal.
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Wouldn't be a horrible move but would be nice to see the Braves get extra value while helping the fish and Yanks out, even if that means meeting a need of their own while they are at it.
 
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