Ot… Is Gerrit Cole the last great HOF caliber SP?

[Krgrecw]

Forget his slow, injury-delayed start to this season. This is what a Hall of Fame starting pitcher in the 21st century ought to look like. A true ace, with one Cy Young trophy and five other top-five Cy Young finishes. Not to mention …

More 200-inning seasons (six) than Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Sandy Alcantara combined. … A 300-strikeout season. … And by far the most career wins (146) of any active pitcher under 35.

So if Gerrit Cole ages well, it’s not hard to envision him reaching 200 wins, 3,000 strikeouts, 60 WAR and a first-ballot ride to the Hall. But here’s my question: After him, will any starting pitcher have that career again?

Only one pitcher under 30 (Alcantara, now sitting out his entire age-28 season after Tommy John surgery) has even crossed the 20-WAR plateau. And among currently healthy pitchers who are still in their 20s, you know how many have even won 60 games? That would be none.

Burnes is your leader, with 54. Yes, really. Dwight Gooden had that many wins by age 21!

I know we don’t care about “wins” like we used to. But are we just going to decide they’re irrelevant, like “holds” and Golden Sombreros? Even guys getting paid like aces — Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, etc. — haven’t reached 100 wins yet. Is it OK if I mention that?

So thank heaven for Gerrit Cole. He’s going to make this easy. After him, we’ll have to either radically redefine what a historically great starter looks like — or just shutter that whole wing of the Hall.

 

[Carp]

DeGrom will likely get in. His career is somewhat similar to Koufax.

Strider has time to get back on track. For reference, Cole only had 1.4 more career WAR through the same age as Strider is currently.

Obviously the sky is the limit for Skenes. I also wouldn't count out Wheeler if he can put together another 3-4 seasons of Ace level pitching.

 

[zitothebrave]

I mean no one knows the answer to this. Because health is the ultimate factor.

But I suspect we are at the end of the era of pitchers consistently eating innings.

Looking at active IP leaders, there are 2 guys under 30 and over 1K IP, German Marquez and Lucas Giolito. Neither are great.

2 people you've ignored though who depending on how they finish their career could wind up in similar boats to Cole (not as good just similar) are Nola and Sale.

Nola is 31, he has 1500 IP, he lacks Cole's top end, but with a strong finish to his career could knock a few of those numbers. The other is Sale, He's older but sitting at 133 wins, 2300 Ks. If he could cobble tgether 4 more healthy years on a good team like Atlanta and play at a high level he could easily notch 40-60 more wins, and 800 more Ks (Sale hasn't had under 200Ks in any season since 2012 where he makes 25 starts) getting him close to that 200 win line and over 3000 Ks.

Then you look at Kids, Spencer Strider is off to an amazing start to his career. Health will ultimately determine his career. Julio Urias's career was off to a good start except he's a horrible person. Logan Webb has emerged as a durable quality pitcher, will he stay healthy, will he take his game up a notch? Then you have the curious case of Alex Manoah. Who looked like the next big thing when he came 3rd in the Cy with a low 2s ERA in 2022. Only to get shelled last year and seemingly still struggle this year but he's getting better.