Payroll and hope...

Skeeter31 said:
I still don't understand when people say Julio will be in decline. Julio is only 26. He's 1 year older than Folty and 2 years older than Blair and Wisler. It's not like he's some 31 year old vet. He was brought up young and I think we forget how young he still is. Unless Julio turns it around and can get us a good haul in a trade, I'd rather keep him and his rather serviceable contract.
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I go after pitching. I actually think our offense will continue to come and we have legit players in the minor leagues that could make an impact soon than later -- Acuna, Albies and D.Pete come to mind. I think we need to attack the pitching market and find a pitcher to fill a need. Spend money, stop being so damn closed-fisted and get someone. I really like the idea of Darvish.

Next year: Darvish, Teheran, Folty, Newcomb, Sims is really solid.
 
Skeeter31 said:
I still don't understand when people say Julio will be in decline. Julio is only 26. He's 1 year older than Folty and 2 years older than Blair and Wisler. It's not like he's some 31 year old vet. He was brought up young and I think we forget how young he still is. Unless Julio turns it around and can get us a good haul in a trade, I'd rather keep him and his rather serviceable contract.
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Julio is now sandwiching two bad years between one good one. His control and velocity are down. I feel we missed our chance last year or during the offseason to move him. My prediction is that by the time he gets to the bigger money years in his contract....we won't want him. I hope I'm wrong...I really do. You are right though, at his age he should just be coming into his prime. He should be trending up or a least near the peak of his career. Do you see that? No....not at all. My feeling is that we have probably witnessed his peak. When you look at our pitchers coming up...you can name 10 with better stuff. I have a feeling, he may block someone better than he, before his contract is up.
 
TheBravos said:
Julio is now sandwiching two bad years between one good one. His control and velocity are down. I feel we missed our chance last year or during the offseason to move him. My prediction is that by the time he gets to the bigger money years in his contract....we won't want him. I hope I'm wrong...I really do. You are right though, at his age he should just be coming into his prime. He should be trending up or a least near the peak of his career. Do you see that? No....not at all. My feeling is that we have probably witnessed his peak. When you look at our pitchers coming up...you can name 10 with better stuff. I have a feeling, he may block someone better than he, before his contract is up.
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TWO bad years? You mean a meh year and another month of bad starts. It's so early, but he has so much time to improve. Jeez, people. I do agree with moving him, though.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
TWO bad years? You mean a meh year and another month of bad starts. It's so early, but he has so much time to improve. Jeez, people. I do agree with moving him, though.
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Look, I hold him to higher a standard because he is "supposed" to be our ACE (I realize he isn't an ACE), our stopper, our best guy. Right now he has the fourth worst ERA of our staryers, only beating out Colon and that's fourth worst ERA on the staff with the HIGHEST ERA in baseball 😳
 
Trading Kemp comes up at least once a day. Still one thing to consider. He offers protection in batting order for Freeman. Not saying that they shouldn't attempt to part ways, if there's a potential market, but for those who insist that they have complete grasps of "value," it's something to consider.
 
Knucksie said:
Trading Kemp comes up at least once a day. Still one thing to consider. He offers protection in batting order for Freeman. Not saying that they shouldn't attempt to part ways, if there's a potential market, but for those who insist that they have complete grasps of "value," it's something to consider.
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I really like Kemp. If we were in a position to win anything in this year or next I would say keep him. We are not, and at his age...his numbers are likely to steadily decline (not a huge drop off though). Getting $20 million off the books for the next three years and getting prospects would be a win/win for a guy that won't be around to be useful when we need him to be. Getting $20 mil off the books and getting prospects back would almost completely erase the HO trade disaster. The more I type, the more it makes total sense to flip Kemp at the deadline 🤔
 
TheBravos said:
Look, I hold him to higher a standard because he is "supposed" to be our ACE (I realize he isn't an ACE), our stopper, our best guy. Right now he has the fourth worst ERA of our staryers, only beating out Colon and that's fourth worst ERA on the staff with the HIGHEST ERA in baseball 😳
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And every year Julio turns it around and stabilizes the crap he's typically surrounded with. I have always disagreed with the "trade him" crowd although I know it's inevitable....
 
Deester11 said:
And every year Julio turns it around and stabilizes the crap he's typically surrounded with. I have always disagreed with the "trade him" crowd although I know it's inevitable....
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I'm not saying I dislike him. He has been one of our main trade chips though in an area that should be a strength. I agree also that trading him is inevitable, so why wait until his contract holds less value and risk him getting hurt in the process. We already have the worst ERA in baseball and the #27th ranked last year, so him being on the staff doesn't make much of a difference. If they traded Kimbrel, they should sure as the sun shines trade Julio.
 
As with all hypothetical trades, the question is one of return. I still value Julion as a 3 win player. If another club offered a package that effectively values him as a 4 win player, I would say "Sold!" Otherwise, I hold on to him.
 
nsacpi said:
As with all hypothetical trades, the question is one of return. I still value Julion as a 3 win player. If another club offered a package that effectively values him as a 4 win player, I would say "Sold!" Otherwise, I hold on to him.
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The problem is....that package was probably there at the trade deadline last year and "maybe" in the offseason. The market will most likely be flooded with sellers this year and Julio isn't pitching near what he was last year (so far). I'm afraid that ship has sailed, and we will not garner any trade close to consider moving him. It's a shame, because Julio is a good pitcher and I like him. He isn't an ACE that you build your staff around. We could have probably gotten a package that would far exceed Julio's value. Of course, that's speculation and I really have no idea if anything like that was offered. Seeing what deals went down at the deadline though and knowing Julio's contract value....
 
TheBravos said:
The problem is....that package was probably there at the trade deadline last year and "maybe" in the offseason. The market will most likely be flooded with sellers this year and Julio isn't pitching near what he was last year (so far). I'm afraid that ship has sailed, and we will not garner any trade close to consider moving him. It's a shame, because Julio is a good pitcher and I like him. He isn't an ACE that you build your staff around. We could have probably gotten a package that would far exceed Julio's value. Of course, that's speculation and I really have no idea if anything like that was offered. Seeing what deals went down at the deadline though and knowing Julio's contract value....
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If that ship has sailed, then I would want to hold on to him
 
TheBravos said:
I really like Kemp. If we were in a position to win anything in this year or next I would say keep him. We are not, and at his age...his numbers are likely to steadily decline (not a huge drop off though). Getting $20 million off the books for the next three years and getting prospects would be a win/win for a guy that won't be around to be useful when we need him to be. Getting $20 mil off the books and getting prospects back would almost completely erase the HO trade disaster. The more I type, the more it makes total sense to flip Kemp at the deadline
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Knucksie said:
You don't have to explain it or rehash it, because pretty much everybody here should understand the situation. It's dealing with pure speculation here, as there may not even be much of a market for Kemp anyway. Everybody keeps bringing up HO constantly, but it's a minor miracle that it was possible to get anything at that juncture. During previous attempts to shop Olivera, recall that another GM was quoted as saying "I can't believe that they even asked." That should tell you something. So clearly the Padres didn't have a whole lot of leverage either

Point is, it's not as simple as "trade him to get the numbers out of the book!" It was bad contract for bad contract that GM's do as professional courtesy to each other to establish working relationships with their peers. Hunch is that the Braves were entering into that agreement, knowing that they were going to assume the responsibility, and just being relieved that a portion of the contract was being paid.

Here's a great analysis by DOB from last year:
http://atlantabraves.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/02/heres-why-matt-kemp-deal-made-sense-for-braves/
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They didn't get anything for Oliveira. The Padres agreed to eat Hector's salary if Atlanta would take Kemp. He was immediately cut.
 
First of all, the Braves could have made that trade without HO. They made some serious lemonade though, and I was one that thought it was a good decision. I am not one of those on here that dislike Kemp.

This reminds me very much if the BJ contract. The Padres took on a untouchable contract in a trade....BJ snapped out of it, began to look more like his former self. The Padres were able to move him. Now they still ate a good bit of the contract, but I feel Kemp would be VERY valuable to a AL team as a DH. The question would be if he was 20 million a year valuable?? Probably not. Let's say we were willing to cover half of what is owed to him...then I think you could very much get something very good in return, because Kemp at 10 mil a year would be a very reasonable amount for what he would bring as a DH.

Now the devil is in the details. There has to be that team that really needs "that" type of guy, BUT if you are that team....no option out there would likely come close. The right team might take on a good portion of his contract. Either way, let's say it's even half? You are still basically just looking at the HO dead money and it would be like we flipped HO for prospects (which would be a modern day miracle).

Think of it this way. You are a AL team that is a good DH away from truely contending. You have a pretty tight payroll, and are limited in what you can spend. You inquire about Kemp (knowing your limitations). Coppy says "I'll tell you what, we are rebuilding and need young prospects. You make it right prospect wise, and heck...I'll cover 75% of all of Kemp's contract." You counter, "I will need you to cover the whole contract, but I can make it up to you with the prospects involved...my budget is limited." Coppy says "How many highly rated lefties do you have??". Ha!!!

If Coppy is willing to get creative (And he always does).Kemp is playing well enough (assuming he stays as he is), that we can work it to our advantage
 
Free Agents for everything but 1st and SS:

Second Basemen
Jose Altuve *
Alexi Amarista *
Darwin Barney
Andres Blanco
Asdrubal Cabrera *
Daniel Descalso *
Stephen Drew
Danny Espinosa
Ryan Flaherty
Logan Forsythe *
Howie Kendrick
Ian Kinsler *
Brett Lawrie
Jed Lowrie *
Eduardo Nunez
Cliff Pennington
Brandon Phillips
Adam Rosales
Neil Walker

Third Basemen
Yunel Escobar
Ryan Flaherty
Todd Frazier
Mike Moustakas
Trevor Plouffe
Danny Valencia

Catchers
Alex Avila
Welington Castillo
Hank Conger
A.J. Ellis
Tyler Flowers *
Ryan Hanigan
Nick Hundley
Chris Iannetta
Jose Lobaton
Jonathan Lucroy
Miguel Montero
Brayan Pena
Rene Rivera
Carlos Ruiz
Geovany Soto
Chris Stewart *
Kurt Suzuki
Josh Thole
Matt Wieters
Bobby Wilson

Outfielders
Dustin Ackley
Nori Aoki
Jose Bautista *
Carlos Beltran
Michael Brantley *
Jay Bruce
Melky Cabrera
Lorenzo Cain
Josh Collmenter
Carl Crawford
Coco Crisp
Rajai Davis
Jarrod Dyson
Andre Ethier *
Craig Gentry
Carlos Gomez
Carlos Gonzalez
Curtis Granderson
Franklin Gutierrez
Matt Holliday
Austin Jackson
Jon Jay
Desmond Jennings
Hyun-Soo Kim
J.D. Martinez
Cameron Maybin
Andrew McCutchen *
Daniel Nava
Colby Rasmus
Ben Revere
Michael Saunders *
Seth Smith
Ichiro Suzuki
Justin Upton *
Melvin Upton
Jayson Werth
Chris B. Young

Starting Pitchers
Henderson Alvarez
Brett Anderson
Jake Arrieta
Clay Buchholz
Madison Bumgarner *
Trevor Cahill
Matt Cain *
Andrew Cashner
Jhoulys Chacin
Tyler Chatwood
Jesse Chavez
Wei-Yin Chen *
Alex Cobb
Bartolo Colon
Johnny Cueto *
Yu Darvish
R.A. Dickey
Nate Eovaldi
Scott Feldman
Yovani Gallardo *
Jaime Garcia
Matt Garza *
Gio Gonzalez *
Miguel Gonzalez
Jeremy Hellickson
Derek Holland
Hisashi Iwakuma *
Ubaldo Jimenez
Ian Kennedy *
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Jordan Lyles
Lance Lynn
Wade Miley *
Mike Minor *
Matt Moore *
Jon Niese
Ricky Nolasco *
Martin Perez *
Michael Pineda
Clayton Richard
Tyson Ross
CC Sabathia
Chris Sale *
Anibal Sanchez *
Hector Santiago
Masahiro Tanaka *
Chris Tillman
Josh Tomlin *
Jason Vargas
Jered Weaver
Chris Young *

Relief Pitchers
Matt Albers
Al Alburquerque
John Axford
Andrew Bailey
Tony Barnette *
Antonio Bastardo
Matt Belisle
Joaquin Benoit
Jerry Blevins *
Craig Breslow
Jonathan Broxton
Steve Cishek
Tyler Clippard
Tim Collins
Wade Davis
Brian Duensing
Zach Duke
Dana Eveland
Neftali Feliz
Charlie Furbush
Jeanmar Gomez
Luke Gregerson
Jason Grilli
David Hernandez
Luke Hochevar
Greg Holland *
Craig Kimbrel *
Brandon Kinztler
Boone Logan *
Mark Lowe
Jake McGee
Dustin McGowan
Miguel Montero
Jason Motte
Pat Neshek
Juan Nicasio
Eric O’Flaherty
Logan Ondrusek *
Oliver Perez
Glen Perkins *
Yusmeiro Petit
Chad Qualls
Addison Reed
Fernando Rodney
Francisco Rodriguez
Sergio Romo
Fernando Salas
Bryan Shaw
Joe Smith
Craig Stammen
Drew Storen
Huston Street *
Anthony Swarzak
Koji Uehara
Carlos Villanueva
Jordan Walden
Tony Watson
Tom Wilhelmsen
 
This trade deadline could be very, very interesting. We might not get as much for the vets with the flooded market, but we "could" buy more than we trade. Last deadline was probably the exact opposite of this one. I expect this deadline to be BUSY for us.
 
It would be beyond moronic for the Braves to pay the contender's premium for guys at the deadline when they aren't contenders.
 
goldfly said:
Free Agents for everything but 1st and SS:

Second Basemen
Darwin Barney
Andres Blanco
Stephen Drew
Danny Espinosa
Ryan Flaherty
Howie Kendrick
Brett Lawrie
Eduardo Nunez
Cliff Pennington
Brandon Phillips
Adam Rosales
Neil Walker

Third Basemen
Yunel Escobar
Ryan Flaherty
Todd Frazier
Mike Moustakas
Trevor Plouffe
Danny Valencia

Catchers
Alex Avila
Welington Castillo
Hank Conger
A.J. Ellis
Ryan Hanigan
Nick Hundley
Chris Iannetta
Jose Lobaton
Jonathan Lucroy
Miguel Montero
Brayan Pena
Rene Rivera
Carlos Ruiz
Geovany Soto
Kurt Suzuki
Josh Thole
Matt Wieters
Bobby Wilson

Outfielders
Dustin Ackley
Nori Aoki
Carlos Beltran
Jay Bruce
Melky Cabrera
Lorenzo Cain
Josh Collmenter
Carl Crawford
Coco Crisp
Rajai Davis
Jarrod Dyson
Craig Gentry
Carlos Gomez
Carlos Gonzalez
Curtis Granderson
Franklin Gutierrez
Matt Holliday
Austin Jackson
Jon Jay
Desmond Jennings
Hyun-Soo Kim
J.D. Martinez
Cameron Maybin
Daniel Nava
Colby Rasmus
Ben Revere
Seth Smith
Ichiro Suzuki
Melvin Upton
Jayson Werth
Chris B. Young

Starting Pitchers
Henderson Alvarez
Brett Anderson
Jake Arrieta
Clay Buchholz
Trevor Cahill
Andrew Cashner
Jhoulys Chacin
Tyler Chatwood
Jesse Chavez
Alex Cobb
Bartolo Colon
Yu Darvish
R.A. Dickey
Nate Eovaldi
Scott Feldman
Jaime Garcia
Miguel Gonzalez
Jeremy Hellickson
Derek Holland
Ubaldo Jimenez
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Jordan Lyles
Lance Lynn
Jon Niese
Michael Pineda
Clayton Richard
Tyson Ross
CC Sabathia
Hector Santiago
Chris Tillman
Jason Vargas
Jered Weaver

Relief Pitchers
Matt Albers
Al Alburquerque
John Axford
Andrew Bailey
Antonio Bastardo
Matt Belisle
Joaquin Benoit
Craig Breslow
Jonathan Broxton
Steve Cishek
Tyler Clippard
Tim Collins
Wade Davis
Brian Duensing
Zach Duke
Dana Eveland
Neftali Feliz
Charlie Furbush
Jeanmar Gomez
Luke Gregerson
Jason Grilli
David Hernandez
Luke Hochevar
Brandon Kinztler
Mark Lowe
Jake McGee
Dustin McGowan
Miguel Montero
Jason Motte
Pat Neshek
Juan Nicasio
Eric O’Flaherty
Oliver Perez
Yusmeiro Petit
Chad Qualls
Addison Reed
Fernando Rodney
Francisco Rodriguez
Sergio Romo
Fernando Salas
Bryan Shaw
Joe Smith
Craig Stammen
Drew Storen
Anthony Swarzak
Koji Uehara
Carlos Villanueva
Jordan Walden
Tony Watson
Tom Wilhelmsen
Click to expand...

I think it's helpful to remove the RFA from the list.
 
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