nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Now that the Kimbrel Saga has reached a conclusion, I'm ready to move on to a discussion of who we might target and the price we might pay.
Among teams likely to be sellers there are quite a few options: Giles (Blue Jays), Kennedy (Royals), Smith (Giants), Watson (Giants), Colome (White Sox), Greene (Tigers).
I will focus on three from this group that I'm especially interested in.
Will Smith is having a second consecutive fantastic season. 2.01 FIP this year after 2.07 FIP in 2018. This season he has a K rate of 12.7 and a BB rate of 1.6. That's elite. He produced 2 WAR last year and is on track to exceed that this year. His salary this year is 4.2M and he will be a free agent after the season. If we get him at the deadline, we would to project him at 1 WAR in the second half and pay a 50% contenders premium. The salary is low enough to ignore in terms of calculating surplus value. We would have to send the Giants prospects worth about 1.5 WAR. Who might that be? I would give the Giants a list of 5 players and let them choose 2. The list would look something like this: Allard, de la Cruz, Demeritte, Kingman and Jenista. If they are smart, the Giants will ask for a single higher rated player than the guys on this list. But that would be my initial offer.
Ian Kennedy has pitched to a 2.27 FIP this season after making the move to the pen. He doesn't have Smith's record as a reliever but he has been almost as good. This season his K rate is 10.9 and BB rate is 1.5. By comparison Luke Jackson has a K rate of 12.7, a BB rate of 2.4 and FIP of 2.55. If we get Kennedy at the deadline, we would project him at 1 WAR in the second half and with the contenders premium we would have to value it at 1.5 WAR. Unlike Smith, Kennedy has a big contract, calling for 16.5M this year and next. He is being paid the equivalent of 2 WAR per year. Surplus value with that contract is minimal. I think we can get him for one of the players I listed in my discussion of Smith. If the Royals want more I would ask them to pick up half of his 2020 salary and offer him 2 players from the list. Again if they were smart I would expect the Royals to ask for a higher rate prospect rather than 2 players from that list. But that would be my initial offer.
Now for Ken Giles. He has been unbelievable so far this year. FIP of 1.16. K rate of 15.1. BB rate of 2.5. Probably not fully sustainable. I would also project him at 1 WAR in the second half, which with the contenders premium is worth 1.5 WAR. He is making 6.3M this year and will get a raise to 8-9M in 2020, which is his final arb year. I would project him at 2 WAR in 2019. So surplus value of about 2.5 over the period we would have to control. He will cost more in prospect capital than Smith or Kennedy. I would offer him one of: Wentz, Ynoa or Weigel. That would be the opening offer. We would probably have to sweeten it a little.
Among teams likely to be sellers there are quite a few options: Giles (Blue Jays), Kennedy (Royals), Smith (Giants), Watson (Giants), Colome (White Sox), Greene (Tigers).
I will focus on three from this group that I'm especially interested in.
Will Smith is having a second consecutive fantastic season. 2.01 FIP this year after 2.07 FIP in 2018. This season he has a K rate of 12.7 and a BB rate of 1.6. That's elite. He produced 2 WAR last year and is on track to exceed that this year. His salary this year is 4.2M and he will be a free agent after the season. If we get him at the deadline, we would to project him at 1 WAR in the second half and pay a 50% contenders premium. The salary is low enough to ignore in terms of calculating surplus value. We would have to send the Giants prospects worth about 1.5 WAR. Who might that be? I would give the Giants a list of 5 players and let them choose 2. The list would look something like this: Allard, de la Cruz, Demeritte, Kingman and Jenista. If they are smart, the Giants will ask for a single higher rated player than the guys on this list. But that would be my initial offer.
Ian Kennedy has pitched to a 2.27 FIP this season after making the move to the pen. He doesn't have Smith's record as a reliever but he has been almost as good. This season his K rate is 10.9 and BB rate is 1.5. By comparison Luke Jackson has a K rate of 12.7, a BB rate of 2.4 and FIP of 2.55. If we get Kennedy at the deadline, we would project him at 1 WAR in the second half and with the contenders premium we would have to value it at 1.5 WAR. Unlike Smith, Kennedy has a big contract, calling for 16.5M this year and next. He is being paid the equivalent of 2 WAR per year. Surplus value with that contract is minimal. I think we can get him for one of the players I listed in my discussion of Smith. If the Royals want more I would ask them to pick up half of his 2020 salary and offer him 2 players from the list. Again if they were smart I would expect the Royals to ask for a higher rate prospect rather than 2 players from that list. But that would be my initial offer.
Now for Ken Giles. He has been unbelievable so far this year. FIP of 1.16. K rate of 15.1. BB rate of 2.5. Probably not fully sustainable. I would also project him at 1 WAR in the second half, which with the contenders premium is worth 1.5 WAR. He is making 6.3M this year and will get a raise to 8-9M in 2020, which is his final arb year. I would project him at 2 WAR in 2019. So surplus value of about 2.5 over the period we would have to control. He will cost more in prospect capital than Smith or Kennedy. I would offer him one of: Wentz, Ynoa or Weigel. That would be the opening offer. We would probably have to sweeten it a little.
