Pen Targets

There are currently 21 BP arms who have thrown 20+ IP for teams with playoff odds less than 10%, and have both FIP and xFIP under 4:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/s...1&players=&filter=FIP|lt|4,xFIP|lt|4,IP|gt|20

Those are the potential trade target, in my opinion. Those are also the guys who are currently performing decently in 2019.

Plugging those names in Baseball Savant search, and ordering them by xwOBA over 2018/2019 gives us a ranking of those guys in terms of who has sustained the most success over the course of ~1.5 seasons:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat...launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_pas=0#results

Will Smith appears to be the clear #1 target via trade, in my opinion.

Other good options who don't walk a ton of batters appear to be guys like Vazquez, Watson, Hernandez, and Giles.
 
I have no idea how Weigel is looking to our front office.

If there is any chance he can get to 75 percent or better of what he was pre injury I’m not dealing him for a reliever.

I really liked him before the injury.
 
Enscheff said:
There are currently 21 BP arms who have thrown 20+ IP for teams with playoff odds less than 10%, and have both FIP and xFIP under 4:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/s...1&players=&filter=FIP|lt|4,xFIP|lt|4,IP|gt|20

Those are the potential trade target, in my opinion. Those are also the guys who are currently performing decently in 2019.

Plugging those names in Baseball Savant search, and ordering them by xwOBA over 2018/2019 gives us a ranking of those guys in terms of who has sustained the most success over the course of ~1.5 seasons:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat...launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_pas=0#results

Will Smith appears to be the clear #1 target via trade, in my opinion.

Other good options who don't walk a ton of batters appear to be guys like Vazquez, Watson, Hernandez, and Giles.
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Interesting to see David Hernandez on the top of the list. Braves picked him up near the end of spring training in 2017, but then traded him off the Gwinnett roster a month later. My guess is he had an "up or out" contract, but I always thought it was a mistake to move him for cash considerations. No world beater, but solid K numbers throughout his career.
 
Will Smith would be my #1 target, no idea what he'd cost in a trade though since he's on an expiring contract.
 
May TD has raised his stock enough to be the centerpiece for Will Smith. Would y’all do that swap?
 
nsacpi said:
that's why AA skipped the winter meetings...so he could work on this new metric
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6 more months and it will be perfected.

Hopefully by then no one will any longer look at W/L records to decide if teams had a good season.
 
Dayton and Sobotka have pitched well since being sent back to AAA. Acquiring someone like Will Smith makes a lot of sense. But there is a chance some of the guys in AAA will help down the stretch. Sobotka has cut his walk rate in AAA to 2.7 from 6.7 when he was in the majors earlier in the year.

Minter has also pitched fairly well, though his last outing was a rough one. His walk rate in 10 AAA innings is 1.7 compared to 7.4 in 11 major league innings. Maybe he and Sobotka are figuring a few things out.

Parsons and Carle have also been doing well in AAA, but neither has the high octane arm that Sobotka and Minter have.
 
Super said:
i severely doubt that
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Plan A: Smith, Giles or Watson

Plan B: Bringing Minter and maybe some of the others who pitched earlier this year (Sobotka, Dayton, Parsons, Carle) back.

Plan C: Moving a starter (Gausman?) to the pen

Plan D: Bringing someone starting in the minors (Wilson, Wright) into the major league pen

Plan E: Weigel and Ynoa
 
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nsacpi said:
Dayton and Sobotka have pitched well since being sent back to AAA. Acquiring someone like Will Smith makes a lot of sense. But there is a chance some of the guys in AAA will help down the stretch. Sobotka has cut his walk rate in AAA to 2.7 from 6.7 when he was in the majors earlier in the year.

Minter has also pitched fairly well, though his last outing was a rough one. His walk rate in 10 AAA innings is 1.7 compared to 7.4 in 11 major league innings. Maybe he and Sobotka are figuring a few things out.

Parsons and Carle have also been doing well in AAA, but neither has the high octane arm that Sobotka and Minter have.
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I think it’s reasonable to expect Minter to be one answer in the pen. You certainly have to at least try it.

Acquiring another experienced guy to slot in leverage situations makes a lot of sense. Maybe also a loogy at deadline. But there are lot of internal possibilities for help too.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think it’s reasonable to expect Minter to be one answer in the pen. You certainly have to at least try it.

Acquiring another experienced guy to slot in leverage situations makes a lot of sense. Maybe also a loogy at deadline. But there are lot of internal possibilities for help too.
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Snitker, like Fredi before him, seems to cotton to the idea of three LHPs in the bullpen. Not a bad strategy. If Blevins was limited to LOOGY action alone, he might fill that spot, but it might be better to get someone like Smith or Watson and put them in a troika along with Newcomb and Minter.
 
A guy I lked this offseason is Amir Garrett. I'm not sure if Cincy will come off of him or not, but he'd be a good get.
 
Chico said:
A guy I lked this offseason is Amir Garrett. I'm not sure if Cincy will come off of him or not, but he'd be a good get.
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seems like a decent trade target and a guy Cincy could move. those years of cheap control are big tho.
 
50PoundHead said:
Snitker, like Fredi before him, seems to cotton to the idea of three LHPs in the bullpen. Not a bad strategy. If Blevins was limited to LOOGY action alone, he might fill that spot, but it might be better to get someone like Smith or Watson and put them in a troika along with Newcomb and Minter.
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Smith/Watson plus Newk and a fixed Minter would be pretty nasty from the left side.
 
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