Pen Targets

Super said:
seems like a decent trade target and a guy Cincy could move. those years of cheap control are big tho.
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Before the Keuchel signing, I thought we would be willing to take on salary in any trade for a reliever to hold down the cost in prospect capital. Now the situation is reversed. We are probably going to have to focus on lower salary guys with some years of control left and pay more in prospect capital.

Will Smith is an exception since his salary this year is only 4.2M. We should be able to fit in the remaining half of that.

I'm also thinking with $ more of a consideration post-Keuchel that we will be more willing to move Duvall as part of any trade for a reliever. Duvall for Smith or Watson?
 
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nsacpi said:
Before the Keuchel signing, I thought we would be willing to take on salary in any trade for a reliever to hold down the cost in prospect capital. Now the situation is reversed. We are probably going to have to focus on lower salary guys with some years of control left and pay more in prospect capital.

Will Smith is an exception since his salary this year is only 4.2M. We should be able to fit in the remaining half of that.

I'm also thinking with $ more of a consideration post-Keuchel that we will be more willing to move Duvall as part of any trade for a reliever. Duvall for Smith or Watson?
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Doesn't the biggest question now become "how much prospect capital will you give up"? What would Giles cost?

If AA believes that the Keuchel addition gives them a legitimate shot at getting past the Dodgers in October, aren't you willing to give up a little bit more than you were if you can "fix" the pen now?

Say Duvall gets you Watson straight-up making that move more or less salary-neutral. Wouldn't you like to pile-on and possibly add Giles if the price were right?

Smith is the better of the two SF relievers, but if they want a prospect(s) for him and would take Duvall for Watson, you could use whatever prospects you were going to use to get Smith and wind up with TWO really good back-end arms for about the same money. That kind of move would seem to be pretty interesting depending on the cost to get Giles since you'd potentially be able to keep both he and Watson in 2020 as well if you could toss a little extra money Watson's way.

The pen then becomes Giles, Watson, Jackson, Minter, Touki, Swarzak, Blevins, and Tomlin with Webb going back down to be available to join Sobotka, Dayton, Wilson, and Weigel on the Atlanta-Gwinnett shuttle.

Newcomb goes back down to be stretched back out, and Keuchel replaces Fried when he's deemed ready. You line Fried and Newk up to pitch on the same schedule as Soroka, allowing you to split the rest of the rotation innings for that slot between the three of them - keeping them all rested and healthy for the end of the year (also making Fried and Keuchel available as pen pieces for October).
 
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Time to try Swarzak or Minter a couple times after last night?

I get the point about Jackson being a bit unlucky lately, but I don't think they've ever even slightly acted like the job was "his" - even when things have gone well.

Another interesting question...

What type of RP return would you hope for if AA were willing to include Camargo in a deal? It's pretty obvious Snitker's going to play Charlie as the utility guy (and I don't think that's worth griping about considering the way Culberson's performed). The problem is, Johan has been rendered completely useless - he's not getting enough innings or ABs to be useful when he does get a chance to play. Either send him down so he can play and recover some value or trade him - having him as the 25th man and last PH is beyond ridiculous. Given his versatility and upside, he should still have plenty of value to a team that's not currently in the mix - whether as an everyday player or utility guy.
 
Setting aside this outdated notion that the Braves have to formally name a closer, and run single game tryouts for multiple guys in the 9th until they find "the guy", here is a good breakdown of what it will likely cost to acquire Will Smith:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/trade-candidate-will-smith.html

Looking at the recent returns for the best rental BP arm on the market reveals the cost to be a poo-poo platter of 2-3 prospects plus something else of value and indicates the Braves have the ammo required to get Will Smith. The sheer depth of the Braves system suggests they should be able to come off 3 marginal guys and not even feel it as a loss.

Even if the Braves don't make the top offer for Smith, they should be able to deal from the low end depth of the system to get 1-2 other guys on this list:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/top-50-trade-candidates-2019-mlb-trade-deadline.html
 
One guy I would really like is Sam Dyson of the Giants. Signed through next year at 5 million. He throws 93+ with a 60% groundball rate throughout his career. Looks like he added a cutter and throws his slider a lot less in the last 3 years. I think he might be an ascending reliever with his new cutter. I wont be surprised if the Giants make him the closer after Smith and then get a good return this time next year. If we do trade for Will Smith I want either Watson or Dyson too. We need more than 1 reliever. Maybe not to make the playoffs, but definitely to go deep into the playoffs.
 
In my earlier posts I've focused mainly on relievers who would be rentals or have just one more year (2020) of control. My assumption in doing that is the front office would prefer to hold down the costs in terms of prospect capital when upgrading the pen.

But it is worth considering how much it might cost to trade for a very good young reliever with many years of control left. There are reports that the White Sox are making Aaron Bummer (great name) available. He is in his first full season and would have 5 more years of team control beyond this season. Last year he pitched 32 major league innings to a FIP of 2.40. This year his FIP is 2.68 in 23 innings. xwOBA of .312 last year and .217 this year.

Conservatively he can be valued as a 1-1.5 WAR per year player. Total surplus value equivalent to 5 WAR during remaining years of control. I know there is a case for WAR not being an accurate measure of the value of high leverage relievers. This probably applies less to someone like Bummer who does not have a track record as a closer.

Anyhow the main point is that it will cost a lot more in prospect capital for someone like Bummer than someone like Will Smith. But you get what you pay for. In the case of Bummer, we likely would have to give up one of our prospects who has been on some Top 100 lists. I prefer to get someone like Smith, mostly to hold down the prospect cost.
 
even with young RP i'd be careful. maybe they're less volatile, but i wouldn't pay a ton to have one for 5+ years.
 
Super said:
even with young RP i'd be careful. maybe they're less volatile, but i wouldn't pay a ton to have one for 5+ years.
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pitching in general is volatile, so yeah i'd rather get a guy who is a rental or has one more year of control
 
The Braves should not be throwing assets at 5 years of a BP arm. Those types of pitchers are always overvalued and always require a premium to acquire.

Quality rentals are available every single season for spare parts. Get them when needed, and don't needlessly shackle the team's resources to a single BP arm.
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves should not be throwing assets at 5 years of a BP arm. Those types of pitchers are always overvalued and always require a premium to acquire.

Quality rentals are available every single season for spare parts. Get them when needed, and don't needlessly shackle the team's resources to a single BP arm.
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I have zero doubt that AA will improve the pen with non-name guys. He had an interview recently where he was asked about the pen and he mentioned a playoff team from last year getting great results from some guy I've never heard of.

I think they will pull a bunch of data and bunch of models. They will acquire guys very cheaply. If they go bigger than that it will be guys on the 40 man they will have to trim off soon anyway.
 
cajunrevenge said:
One guy I would really like is Sam Dyson of the Giants. Signed through next year at 5 million. He throws 93+ with a 60% groundball rate throughout his career. Looks like he added a cutter and throws his slider a lot less in the last 3 years. I think he might be an ascending reliever with his new cutter. I wont be surprised if the Giants make him the closer after Smith and then get a good return this time next year. If we do trade for Will Smith I want either Watson or Dyson too. We need more than 1 reliever. Maybe not to make the playoffs, but definitely to go deep into the playoffs.
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I agree with you totally on Dyson. I am not interested in Watson. I'd love to have Smith depending on the price in a trade. To sum it up, if Smith costs too much and Dyson is available for a good price I'd get him.
 
Braves1976 said:
I agree with you totally on Dyson. I am not interested in Watson. I'd love to have Smith depending on the price in a trade. To sum it up, if Smith costs too much and Dyson is available for a good price I'd get him.
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I love Sam, but I'm mildly surprised he has developed into a high leverage pro. his stuff always looked a little flat in college. Had success with it though.
 
Southcack77 said:
I love Sam, but I'm mildly surprised he has developed into a high leverage pro. his stuff always looked a little flat in college. Had success with it though.
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I didn't follow him in college but I followed him in Texas. He actually did very well as the Rangers closer before overuse got to him. He and the other Texas pen arms got overused a lot that one year. Then he fell off after that and ended up with the Giants. Now he looks even better than his days in Texas.
 
Dyson is walking 1.4 per 9. Almost all MLB pitchers will have success with control like that.

Do we want to see the Braves rely on a control artist with 1/2 a year of elite control in the BP? Think I'll pass.

Again, folks are letting results in a pitcher friendly park influence their opinion of a mediocre guy.
 
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Enscheff said:
Dyson is walking 1.4 per 9. Almost all MLB pitchers will have success with control like that.

Do we want to see the Braves rely on a control artist with 1/2 a year of elite control in the BP? Think I'll pass.

Again, folks are letting results in a pitcher friendly park influence their opinion of a mediocre guy.
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No, Texas was not pitcher friendly and he had success there as closer before the overuse wore on him. What you argue about Dyson more applies to Watson, Watson would be a mediocre pickup and he isn't someone you want closing.

If you are going by Dyson's home-road splits. It is reversed if you look at 2018 as he had a 1.45 ERA on the road and 3.66 ERA at home. But I wouldn't read too much into that for either year.
 
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nsacpi said:
Dyson xwOBA .291 in 2019 and .288 in 2018

Watson xwOBA .294 in 2019 and .268 in 2018
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Put Watson in a closer role and watch him blow saves like he did in Pittsburgh. He's fools gold, nothing more. If he came really cheap you'd add him for a decent lefty but don't expect him to be as good here as SF. His home-road splits for 2018 are more telling in his case.
 
Braves1976 said:
Put Watson in a closer role and watch him blow saves like he did in Pittsburgh. He's fools gold, nothing more. If he came really cheap you'd add him for a decent lefty but don't expect him to be as good here as SF. His home-road splits for 2018 are more telling in his case.
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I think they are about the same quality. They'd both be ok pickups. There are better fish in the ocean.
 
Is there any way that Jose Leclerc could be considered a viable trade option for us? He has a .321 wOBA, but a .265 xwOBA. His counting stats haven't been that good this year, but he could be ready to start dominating any minute now.

He just signed an extension so its doubtful the Rangers will want to trade him, but he's really young and really cheap and is controlled through 2024 with a team option in 2023.

I'm not a huge fan of paying the price it would cost to buy all those years of control for a reliever, but Leclerc is pretty darn good. The Rangers are still in contention, but I expect them to fall out of it by the trade deadline. If that happens, I'd at least make the call.
 
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