Pen Targets

[nsacpi]

looking at 2019 xwOBA, these guys stand out:

Smith .234
Giles .243
Kennedy .249

Kennedy is making too much money this year and next but the Royals might be willing to absorb a big chunk of it

 

[nsacpi]

Is there any way that Jose Leclerc could be considered a viable trade option for us? He has a .321 wOBA, but a .265 xwOBA. His counting stats haven't been that good this year, but he could be ready to start dominating any minute now.

He just signed an extension so its doubtful the Rangers will want to trade him, but he's really young and really cheap and is controlled through 2024 with a team option in 2023.

I'm not a huge fan of paying the price it would cost to buy all those years of control for a reliever, but Leclerc is pretty darn good. The Rangers are still in contention, but I expect them to fall out of it by the trade deadline. If that happens, I'd at least make the call.

He's a good option, but my assumption is that we won't go after him or Vazquez or Bummer because of the prospect capital that would be required.

 

[Braves1976]

I think they are about the same quality. They'd both be ok pickups. There are better fish in the ocean.

Dyson has been a good closer in the past while Watson sucked in that role. But we agree that there are better pick-ups, Smith is obviously the better option but may cost too much. Time will tell.

 

[Braves1976]

looking at 2019 xwOBA, these guys stand out:

Smith .234
Giles .243
Kennedy .249

Kennedy is making too much money this year and next but the Royals might be willing to absorb a big chunk of it

I don't just look at numbers like some of y'all. For example, I know what a headcase Giles is and I want no part of him. He'd blow saves left and right come playoff time. But maybe some of y'all are just happy to get there.

 

[nsacpi]

I don't just look at numbers like some of y'all. For example, I know what a headcase Giles is and I want no part of him. He'd blow saves left and right come playoff time. But maybe some of y'all are just happy to get there.

Kimbrel a headcase? He sure pitched like one at the end of last year.

 

[Braves1976]

Kimbrel a headcase? He sure pitched like one at the end of last year.

No, you obviously didn't follow Giles as closely as I did when he was with Houston. Kimbrel just had a bad playoffs. There were never articles with headlines calling Kimbrel a headcase as I recall. There were a number of them about Giles in Houston and based on the reports I heard they fit.

 

[Braves1976]

I have zero doubt that AA will improve the pen with non-name guys. He had an interview recently where he was asked about the pen and he mentioned a playoff team from last year getting great results from some guy I've never heard of.

I think they will pull a bunch of data and bunch of models. They will acquire guys very cheaply. If they go bigger than that it will be guys on the 40 man they will have to trim off soon anyway.

I pretty much agree here, AA will look to go for the best value trade(s). Just like he did last year in adding Venters and Brach.

 

[Enscheff]

looking at 2019 xwOBA, these guys stand out:

Smith .234
Giles .243
Kennedy .249

Kennedy is making too much money this year and next but the Royals might be willing to absorb a big chunk of it

There are currently 21 BP arms who have thrown 20+ IP for teams with playoff odds less than 10%, and have both FIP and xFIP under 4:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/s...1&players=&filter=FIP|lt|4,xFIP|lt|4,IP|gt|20

Those are the potential trade target, in my opinion. Those are also the guys who are currently performing decently in 2019.

Plugging those names in Baseball Savant search, and ordering them by xwOBA over 2018/2019 gives us a ranking of those guys in terms of who has sustained the most success over the course of ~1.5 seasons:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat...launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_pas=0#results

Will Smith appears to be the clear #1 target via trade, in my opinion.

Other good options who don't walk a ton of batters appear to be guys like Vazquez, Watson, Hernandez, and Giles.

IMO, it's either pay retail for Smith, or bargain hunt for other guys that can be acquired with fungible assets.

Nobody other than Smith is worth making a push to acquire. Giles seems like he is just as likely to be terrible as he is to continue being dominant.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Dyson is walking 1.4 per 9. Almost all MLB pitchers will have success with control like that.

Do we want to see the Braves rely on a control artist with 1/2 a year of elite control in the BP? Think I'll pass.

Again, folks are letting results in a pitcher friendly park influence their opinion of a mediocre guy.

The point is to get something better than what we have without giving up significant prospect capital. If we can get some of the elite relievers like Will Smith for that then I am all for that.

 

[Braves1976]

The point is to get something better than what we have without giving up significant prospect capital. If we can get some of the elite relievers like Will Smith for that then I am all for that.

i understood your point, who wouldn't love to see Will Smith play for his hometown team if the price is right? i expect they will want a lot for him though.