Peraza

Hawk said:
So is this you finally admitting that FanGraphs is your grail, your solitary source for statistics, the mecca of your 'knowledge' of the sport?

Because you are literally making my argument for me.

I realize that statistics are a crutch for you, but - completely excluding the basic idea that baseball is more than a game of numbers, which is not something even being discussed here - surely you realize that there is an absolute plethora of statistical information available (to the general public) that can factor into the analysis of a particular player that goes well beyond the confines of one website.
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You aren't even presenting an argument. All you are saying is "FG sucks". So what doesn't suck? What data do you reference that is better? I am constantly reading material from every non-fluff site I can find like MLBTR, BRef, BP, BA, etc. What am I missing?

Or do you "use your eyes" like a scout?

I played D1 baseball with and against guys who went on to become professionals. I've stood in the box and hit 90+ MPH fastballs, been plunked by the same fastballs, stole bases against catchers with average pop times, fielded balls off the bat from guys that would become professional hitters, thrown out guys on the bases that had 60+ grade speed, and have been part of pro day scouting/testing. What level did you play? What qualifies you to make "scouting" determinations on players?

What knowledge are you privy to that I'm missing? Seriously, I want to know so I can expand my knowledge base.
 
thewupk said:
And you may be right on the individual basis part. But it's the best we have right now and again it all correlates very well. I'm going to give it the benefit of the doubt until something better comes along instead of just basing my opinions on the eyeball test or an ancient thought process on the game.
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you are completely missing the point of the conversation. I am lost as to how you're reading what's being said as some sort of an attack on WAR. no one is trying to disprove it. no one is saying it's useless. no one is saying the eyeball test is better. that has been 0% of the discussion.
 
thewupk said:
I don't see why some people try to disprove WAR (the one that fangraphs or baseball-ref use) so much. It correlates highly to actual win totals just like Pythagorean win total does (based on runs allowed vs rusn scored). The teams that have higher WAR (aka the ones who score more runs than they allow) are going to have higher win totals. There are exceptions like the Rangers this year but it's easy to see that their 28-8 record in 1 run games is the major reason their record is what it is. Those teams happen (O's from a couple of years ago is another good example) but they are flukey. Probably the best chance the Braves have for being good next season.
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It depends on if posters like the player or not.
 
yeezus said:
you are completely missing the point of the conversation. I am lost as to how you're reading what's being said as some sort of an attack on WAR. no one is trying to disprove it. no one is saying it's useless. no one is saying the eyeball test is better. that has been 0% of the discussion.
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I'm not missing anything. What is your issue with fangraphs? The data that it provides? I am curious on why you bash it so often? That it disagrees with your viewpoint?
 
thewupk said:
Teams rely on the same data that Fangraphs uses however. They may calculate it in a different way but I would bet most offensive models are based on linear weights. Now the values they plug in may differ. Same with defensive data. They may have their own methods but I would also bet they are based on actual play by play data.
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So you agree that teams don't rely on Fangraphs? Obviously teams rely on data. How teams interpret the data is kind of the differentiation point, no?
 
gilesfan said:
It depends on if posters like the player or not.
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you are also not comprehending what's being said. like, at all. it's like some of you are so defensive about WAR that saying "teams don't just look at fangraphs when making evaluations" is taken as some sort of an attack. it's crazy. the merits of FG and WAR aren't even being discussed.
 
chop2chip said:
So you agree that teams don't rely on Fangraphs? Obviously teams rely on data. How teams interpret the data is kind of the differentiation point, no?
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Yes I agree that teams have their own models that they use. However I don't believe they differ all that much on the on field performance side since the raw data is going to be pretty close to the same.
 
Enscheff said:
You aren't even presenting an argument. All you are saying is "FG sucks". So what doesn't suck? What data do you reference that is better? I am constantly reading material from every non-fluff site I can find like MLBTR, BRef, BP, BA, etc. What am I missing?

Or do you "use your eyes" like a scout?

I played D1 baseball with and against guys who went on to become professionals. I've stood in the box and hit 90+ MPH fastballs, been plunked by the same fastballs, stole bases against catchers with average pop times, fielded balls off the bat from guys that would become professional hitters, thrown out guys on the bases that had 60+ grade speed, and have been part of pro day scouting/testing. What level did you play? What qualifies you to make "scouting" determinations on players?

What knowledge are you privy to that I'm missing? Seriously, I want to know so I can expand my knowledge base.
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I confess, I was really just trying to goad you into bringing up the D1 thing again
 
yeezus said:
you are also not comprehending what's being said. like, at all. it's like some of you are so defensive about WAR that saying "teams don't just look at fangraphs when making evaluations" is taken as some sort of an attack. it's crazy. the merits of FG and WAR aren't even being discussed.
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And who is saying that teams only look at fangraphs all the time? Who are you arguing against? Nobody is saying this.
 
thewupk said:
Yes I agree that teams have their own models that they use. However I don't believe they differ all that much on the on field performance side since the raw data is going to be pretty close to the same.
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They don't differ all that much, except probably when it comes to evaluating defensive contributions.

The advent of WAR (or whatever a team calls their version of it) and using it to perform cost/benefit analysis is the sole reason teams like the A's and Rays created parity over the last decade or so with the large market teams. The usage of analytics is also solely responsible for parity leaving the game again once those large market teams started adopting them and eliminating the small market teams' advantages.

When teams like the BoSox, Dodgers, Cubs and now the Yankees took the A's and Rays systems and injected them with unlimited money, they are suddenly back to being unbeatable.

Folks are against analytics because they don't understand them or they disprove something they are too stubborn to admit isn't true. We fans don't have our own analytics department, so we rely on sites like FG and BRef to do it for us...and likely get pretty close to what most teams are doing internally.
 
thewupk said:
And who is saying that teams only look at fangraphs all the time? Who are you arguing against? Nobody is saying this.
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This all started with zito calling the Kemp move moronic and then reading off some FG numbers. I said something to effect of "that's great, but teams don't just look at FG to make decisions." Then a barrage of posts saying "TEAMS MOST DEFINITELY LOOK AT FANGRAPHS YOU'RE NAIVE IF YOU THINK THEY DON'T AT ALL" came up. Then you interpreted something as someone trying to "disprove" WAR or saying the eyeball test is better when that literally didn't happen one single time.

In short, I never said anyone said teams only look at FG. I said analyzing the Kemp move by looking at FG is a lot cruder than the way the FO would have done it. Now we're here, and apparently WAR is being attacked but I don't know where.
 
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