Pitching Prospects Stock Watch

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Possible scores: up big, up small, no change, down small, down big

1. Allard down small
2. Soroka up big (yuge performance in first full season league)
3. Toussaint down big (repeating level and struggling)
4. Newcomb down small
5. Blair no change
6. Sims up small
7. Gant up big (elite strikeout rates)
8. Povse up small (he's been great but at the same level as he finished last year)
9. Sanchez down big (was repeating level and not doing great, now injured)
10. Fried no change (good reports on velocity, but some issues with command)
11. Jenkins no change
12. Ellis up small
13. Minter up big
14. Graham no change
15. Janas no change
16. Thurman down small
17. Cabrera down small
18. Weigel down small
19. Clark down small
20. Bird down big
21. Hursh no change
22. Whalen up small
23. Dave Peterson down small
24. Weber no change

Among the guys no longer rookie eligible

1. Teheran up small (back to his 2013-2014 form, I think most of us knew that 2015 was not the real Julion)
2. Wisler up big
3. Baby Harang up small (first time I've used the word small in conjunction with BH)
4. Folty up small
5. Viz up big (starting to look like an elite closer)
6. Winkler down small (sad because he looked so good before breaking the arm, hopefully he will come back 100%)
7. Simmons incomplete (looking forward to seeing him in the majors again)
8. Krol up small
9. Cervenka up big (very pleasant surprise)
 
This is pretty fair. I would argue that Allard's stock hasn't changed and that Newcomb's hasn't really, either, but I basically agree. Also, I would say Sanchez's may have gone down some, but not by much. He pitched really well at times this year.
 
So barring any trades and FA signing (unrealistic, I know), who you think makes up the '19 starting staff?
 
smootness said:
This is pretty fair. I would argue that Allard's stock hasn't changed and that Newcomb's hasn't really, either, but I basically agree. Also, I would say Sanchez's may have gone down some, but not by much. He pitched really well at times this year.
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I'm not sure how Newcomb's stock isn't down a tad. He was chatted up as a rotation candidate this year but instead is repeating AA and still walking 5 per 9IP. I get that the potential is there, but I think a bit of caution is fair.

edit: ok, not repeating AA. Still...
 
Julio3000 said:
I'm not sure how Newcomb's stock isn't down a tad. He was chatted up as a rotation candidate this year but instead is repeating AA and still walking 5 per 9IP. I get that the potential is there, but I think a bit of caution is fair.

edit: ok, not repeating AA. Still...
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He wasn't ever truly a candidate for the rotation this year. He had barely pitched above A+. His results haven't been great, but they've been ok and they K's are there. I don't mean to say that he's had a great year, but I think most scouts would tell you the potential is there as much as it ever was, and I don't think this year has given any reason to think he has less of a chance to make it.

Had the walks come down a good bit, his stock would be soaring. He's still figuring things out, but I think his stock is about where it was to start the year. We don't disagree that much, I was just offering my opinion.
 
Only one you are missing out on is Janas. Had that brilliant stretch last year, missed over a month after bus crash and other problems, but he has moved to bullpen this year and is currently on a tear as a closer.
 
rico43 said:
Only one you are missing out on is Janas. Had that brilliant stretch last year, missed over a month after bus crash and other problems, but he has moved to bullpen this year and is currently on a tear as a closer.
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He is at the same level he finished 2015 at. He moved to the pen. Most pitchers do better pitching out of the pen. His numbers are good. But taking into account level, level last year (he had 13 starts in AA last year), age (24) and move to a different role, I think he is holding serve. I do like him as a prospect. Just haven't really changed my view on him.
 
not sure I agree on Touki, he's still very young and "stuff" guys like him often start rough in their pro careers as they learn to both keep their stuff as well as command it.
 
I've often been of the opinion that results don't matter as much as scouting and development until a player reaches AA. THEN you want to see the talent translate into on the field results more and more. But I get why folks look at results... Most of us aren't scouts!
 
Great post/thread. I wanted to think Newcomb should not be down, or Sims should be way up, but after thinking more, all evals seem dead on to me. To me Viz already showed he was an elite closer, but you are right, now that he's done it longer, stock will be way up.
 
Povse stands at 6'8" and throws upper 90s? why has touki been ranked so highly based on stuff while povse has been ignored? i guess that's all changing now, but dang.
 
smootness said:
He wasn't ever truly a candidate for the rotation this year. He had barely pitched above A+. His results haven't been great, but they've been ok and they K's are there. I don't mean to say that he's had a great year, but I think most scouts would tell you the potential is there as much as it ever was, and I don't think this year has given any reason to think he has less of a chance to make it.

Had the walks come down a good bit, his stock would be soaring. He's still figuring things out, but I think his stock is about where it was to start the year. We don't disagree that much, I was just offering my opinion.
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You're probably right. I don't think his prospects are any less than they were this winter. I'm just impatient. :HeywardWut:
 
I think Sims stock is up big. This time last year he was in A ball and not exactly lighting the world on fire. I know he had like 1 good month at the end of the year and about 20 good innings at in the Arizona Fall League but I think we have gone into the last few years expecting a breakout from Sims. I think he still has a long ways to go refining his command and control but dat K rate at AAA is a good sign.

Folty I also think is up big. Through 5 starts its easily been his best 5 game stretch as a starter. I might have been more down on him than everyone else. With the stuff he has it really concerned me that he was so bad even as a reliever. If I had told you that Folty would have 0 walks in 3 out of his first 5 starts this year you would have called me crazy.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I think Sims stock is up big. This time last year he was in A ball and not exactly lighting the world on fire. I know he had like 1 good month at the end of the year and about 20 good innings at in the Arizona Fall League but I think we have gone into the last few years expecting a breakout from Sims. I think he still has a long ways to go refining his command and control but dat K rate at AAA is a good sign.

Folty I also think is up big. Through 5 starts its easily been his best 5 game stretch as a starter. I might have been more down on him than everyone else. With the stuff he has it really concerned me that he was so bad even as a reliever. If I had told you that Folty would have 0 walks in 3 out of his first 5 starts this year you would have called me crazy.
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Right now, I see Teheran, Wisler, and Folty establishing themselves in the rotation. Williams Perez is kind of the guy that will hang around and bounce between spot starting and long relief. I think Aaron Blair is a guy they are hoping becomes established in that top 4 with the other three I mentioned. It will be interesting to see who materializes out of the group that includes Lucas Sims, John Gant, Sean Newcombe, Chris Ellis, and Rob Whalen. Someone will get into the rotation while others end up being traded for bats. I think guys like Ellis and Whalen could end up as bull pen pieces.

Then you have the next wave coming up, which includes Max Povse, who is still just 22 years old and may be in between the guys at AA and above and the guys at the lower A levels at this point. That next wave includes Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Touki Toussaint, Ricardo Sanchez, and likely whoever we end up drafting in the first two rounds this year.
 
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