Pitching Surplus?

[clvclv]

It was an extreme example used to illustrate that it is possible to have a surplus of pitching.

Only "possible" if someone's ever been in that situation. Provide an example.

By your measurement, it's "possible" that I've got a 48" vertical and you'll see me in the NBA next year. (I'm 47 and 50 pounds overweight BTW.)

 

[clvclv]

He specifically doubted that you can have a pitching surplus in theory. He then asked for an example, and I provided one.

Don't take it too seriously, I was at least halfway kidding. But I do believe it is possible for a team to have a pitching surplus, at least to the extent that it makes sense to get rid of a little bit of pitching for more hitting.

No, you didn't. You said someone with 15 MLB-level starters would have one. Who might that ever be? In history - don't want to limit you.

 

[clvclv]

With Julio going down tonight, you could argue that for all the arms we've stockpiled we have no one currently capable of being a #3 SP.

 

[msstate7]

With Julio going down tonight, you could argue that for all the arms we've stockpiled we have no one currently capable of being a #3 SP.

What happened to Julio?

 

[ixiXSolidXixi]

What happened to Julio?

He get trade for Melvin Upton Jr!!!

 

[clvclv]

What happened to Julio?

Strained lat. Nothing serious - was breezing again.

Of course, some we'll say the sky fell - has already started.

 

[msstate7]

He get trade for Melvin Upton Jr!!!

Haha

 

[msstate7]

Strained lat. Nothing serious - was breezing again.

Of course, some we'll say the sky fell - has already started.

Good deal

 

[smootness]

Only "possible" if someone's ever been in that situation.

Also objectively untrue.

 

[Carp]

With Julio going down tonight, you could argue that for all the arms we've stockpiled we have no one currently capable of being a #3 SP.

You would have a hard time making that argument. Jenkins has looked great so far in the rotation, albeit only 2 starts. Folty is doing great. Wisler is scuffling but was pitching well earlier in the year. Odds are that he figures it out. The only other highly regard starting pitchers with MLB experience are Blair and ManBan.

 

[Carp]

There has never nor will ever be a such thing as a pitching surplus - for anyone.

Again, name one.

And you think theres a greater than 0% chance that the Braves will ever have 15 good major league starting pitchers?

I think the term good needs to be defined here. Certainly we currently have at least 11-14 quality pitchers ranging from AA to the MLB that either are current MLB starters or project as MLB starters. The readiness/potential of some of these guys can be debated, but I think it's fair to assume that all of the following guys are quality depth for the big league club.

JT

Folty

Wisler

Jenkins

Harrell

Perez

Gant

Blair

Newcombe

Sims

Ellis

Whalen

Povse

ManBan

And past that, we have some options like Kelly and De La Cruz who can make spot starts if need be.

I'd definitely consider that to be a pitching surplus. And also, we have several more like Allard, Fried, Touki, etc on the way.

 

[clvclv]

I think the term good needs to be defined here. Certainly we currently have at least 11-14 quality pitchers ranging from AA to the MLB that either are current MLB starters or project as MLB starters. The readiness/potential of some of these guys can be debated, but I think it's fair to assume that all of the following guys are quality depth for the big league club.

JT
Folty - still learning, but lots to like
Wisler - still learning, but lots to like
Jenkins - looks solid thus far
Harrell - seriously?
Perez - I hate shoulder concerns
Gant - looks solid thus far
Blair - has a LONG way to go
Newcombe - yet to advance, control???
Sims - yet to advance, control???
Ellis - yet to advance, control???
Whalen - yet to advance
Povse - yet to advance
ManBan - hasn't resembled a "good" SP in quite some time

And past that, we have some options like Kelly and De La Cruz who can make spot starts if need be.

I'd definitely consider that to be a pitching surplus. And also, we have several more like Allard, Fried, Touki, etc on the way.

Don't get me wrong, I love the depth and upside just as much as everyone. Saying we have a "surplus" is a huge stretch though.

As it stands right now, 3 of those guys are injured with no timetable for return (Julio, Perez, and Gant), the "veteran" of the staff (Harrell) has a career 4.81 ERA and 4.45 FIP (to go along with a WHIP of over 1.5), Folty and Wisler struggle to keep the ball in the park (for now), the pitch to contact guy in the group (Blair) is getting shelled in AAA, Newcomb, Sims, and Ellis have trouble throwing enough strikes to AA hitters.

The Braves don't come close to having 15 guys who are ready to be solid contributors at the MLB level, much less be considered "good" at that level.

I've got really high hopes too, but many others have pointed out before how dangerous it is to count on many of these guys reaching their ceilings - and they're right IMO. I'm sure someone can point us to a much better number, but if you simply use the rule of thumb that Duquette and Bowden have been referencing on XM from a GM's perspective that one in three of these guys have a shot at being "successful" (their opinions have been that at best one in every three will get hurt, one in every three will flame out as starters, and one will be "successful"), I can't fathom ANYONE can have a surplus (since I'd argue we've got better numbers than anyone else in the game). We've got lots of talent, but the chances of having them become my definition of "good" - #3 or better SPs - isn't great. We're still going to need to have a lot of things go right.

 

[Tapate50]

Across baseball there went from a pitching surplus and everyone was saying we are nuts to stock up on in trades and drafts, and boom a day dawns an no one has any except a handful of teams and they aren't letting them go.

Does that make some of the criticism the FO has recieved wrong? Because there were a lot of monkeys throwing **** at the FO for the passed year or more about it.

 

[TheBravos]

I never did. It's a good currency to have no doubt.

 

[Carp]

There has never nor will ever be a such thing as a pitching surplus - for anyone.

Again, name one.

Don't get me wrong, I love the depth and upside just as much as everyone. Saying we have a "surplus" is a huge stretch though.

As it stands right now, 3 of those guys are injured with no timetable for return (Julio, Perez, and Gant), the "veteran" of the staff (Harrell) has a career 4.81 ERA and 4.45 FIP (to go along with a WHIP of over 1.5), Folty and Wisler struggle to keep the ball in the park (for now), the pitch to contact guy in the group (Blair) is getting shelled in AAA, Newcomb, Sims, and Ellis have trouble throwing enough strikes to AA hitters.

The Braves don't come close to having 15 guys who are ready to be solid contributors at the MLB level, much less be considered "good" at that level.

I've got really high hopes too, but many others have pointed out before how dangerous it is to count on many of these guys reaching their ceilings - and they're right IMO. I'm sure someone can point us to a much better number, but if you simply use the rule of thumb that Duquette and Bowden have been referencing on XM from a GM's perspective that one in three of these guys have a shot at being "successful" (their opinions have been that at best one in every three will get hurt, one in every three will flame out as starters, and one will be "successful"), I can't fathom ANYONE can have a surplus (since I'd argue we've got better numbers than anyone else in the game). We've got lots of talent, but the chances of having them become my definition of "good" - #3 or better SPs - isn't great. We're still going to need to have a lot of things go right.

Every pitcher will have questions. You're missing the point. It's not that all of these guys are guaranteed to be MLB starting pitchers (much less above average ML starting pitchers). The point is having quality starting pitching OPTIONS. No team will ever have 15 "good" ML starting pitchers. But you can certainly acquire 15 or more quality starting pitching options. And the Braves certainly have them, IMO.

 

[clvclv]

Every pitcher will have questions. You're missing the point. It's not that all of these guys are guaranteed to be MLB starting pitchers (much less above average ML starting pitchers). The point is having quality starting pitching OPTIONS. No team will ever have 15 "good" ML starting pitchers. But you can certainly acquire 15 or more quality starting pitching options. And the Braves certainly have them, IMO.

Actually, that IS the point - given the vast number of questions about young pitching, it's nigh impossible to have a surplus of pitching. Much like the Red Sox found out last season, you have to have one helluva offense to contend with a rotation full of 3/4/5s. At present, that's what we have without Julio.

Assuming several of these kids are able to step forward and progress, I could see making an argument that we're close to having a surplus come 2018 or 2019 - but not now.

 

[rico43]

So, just a few months ago there was a pitching surplus, and people were bashing us for taking pitchers back in trades. As of right now, there isn't any available without a huge price tag attached. So, what gives?

All these long-winder answers are funny. What gives? It's July. Trade deadline is one week away.