The claim that Shapiro made was that it makes virtually no difference if someone recognizes you as transgender, in regards to rate at which transgenders attempt suicide. And yeah I should have put attempt rate. I don't think that changes anything substantially in regards to this conversation. But that very specific claim made by Shapiro and is clearly supported by the study's numbers. Those numbers show little correlation to suicide attempt rates and how society perceives transgender people. Shapiro's basic claim in almost all of that video is that the transgender suicide rate remains WAYYYYY higher than the rest of the population regardless of experience. The first highlighted quote in the study is "“Overall, the most striking finding of our analysis was the exceptionally high prevalence of lifetime suicide attempts reported by NTDS respondents across all demographics and experiences.” Meaning that their suicide rates remain exceptionally high regardless of what modern treatments or experiences they may have. Which absolutely lends credence to his argument that transgenderism is a mental illness.
To be fair, I am more in the "could be" a mental illness camp. The issue has become so politicized that I don't think any fair minded scientific analysis can even be done to prove one way or another. But the data does seem to suggest that being transgender leads to a really really difficult life and the data also suggests that the main variable in that is the transgenderism itself, and not necessarily how society treats you. And that is the main point that I extracted from the Shapiro video, and its one that I agree with.
One of my biggest worries with a worldview like Shapiro’s is that it ignores the consequence of treating transgender people at “others” in a society. The suicide attempt rate skyrockets with instances of harassment and abuse. While I’m sure that’s not unique to transgender people, I still worry about increased exposure to such things. Saying things along the lines of “I shouldn’t have to recognize you as your identified gender” when you have a following as large as Shapiro’s reinforces the idea that transgender people are a societal ill in some way. There’s no way that can’t cause more harm than good.