Position players and WAR

zitothebrave

zitothebrave

Connoisseur of Minors
I've discussed this before I believe in a GDT where we dont' have the guys having dominating seasons like Heyward and Bourn last year but have just a bunch of very solid guys, and it's oh so true. 6 of our 8 position players are currently trending a 3+ WAR

Where they're at now

Justin - 3.0

Simmons - 2.9

Heyward - 2.9

Freeman - 2.8

Mac - 2.7

Johnson - 2.4

What's really impressive though is that 3 of that group are under 400 PA Heyward because he missed time twice (though the second was only a handful of games thanks to the ASB) Johnson because it took over a month to win the starting job, and Mac missed a month.

Overall this is our current position player fWAR

C - Mac 2.7

1B Freeman 2.8

2B - Uggla 0.9

3B - Johnson 2.4

SS - Simmons 2.9

LF - Justin 3.0

CF - Bossman -0.4

RF - Jason 2.9

Basically if BJ wasn't having a life crisis then we'd not be in horrible shape at any position. Uggla obviously hasn't been earning his salary but overall still hasn't been terrible.

Last year

C - Mac 1.8

1B - Freeman 1.8

2B - Uggla 3.4

3B - Chipper 2.7

SS - Simmons 2.2

LF - Prado 5.6

CF - Bourn 6.1

RF - Jason 6.4

Basically our OF is way down because of Heyward missing time and not having the same baserunning stats as last year (fielding and offense are on par with last year) Bossman not being as good as Bourn (kinda expected but not this bad) and Justin not being able to match Prado defensively. But we're up almost across the board in the IF except Uggla.

Overall even with Bossman having a horrific season to date our starting players are about 13 WAR below last year, a pretty big step down but we do have some baseball left to play. Maybe Bossman goes on an Ugglaesque type of hot streak and pulls his numbers up to being decent. Also I'm really hoping that Jason exceeds his offensive value from last year.
 
Heyward is heating up at the right time. He's very good.

Thanks for posting. WAR is kind of shorthand to me, but it's a decent measure.
 
50PoundHead said:
Heyward is heating up at the right time. He's very good.

Thanks for posting. WAR is kind of shorthand to me, but it's a decent measure.
Click to expand...

One of my favorite articles on the issue of WAR. http://distilledmagazine.com/moneyball-and-big-data/

I use WAR often, but it is a stat that I think overstates the defensive impact of certain players. (even ignoring how inconsistent defensive stats are at times)

There is no way in my mind that corner outfielders (like Heyward) have the defensive impact on the game that is shown by WAR. For example, Heyward has 12 DRS this year in only 122 plays. (or 130 balls in zone)
 
Heyward is a pretty exceptional outfielder. I've noticed a few times when someone else is in right that balls were going for hits that Heyward would catch. I remember especially one hit to the gap that Reed Johnson made a great effort on. Heyward makes that play with ease. Maybe the defensive stats exaggerate his impact, but not by much. And his hustle in backing up plays is remarkable.
 
gilesfan said:
One of my favorite articles on the issue of WAR. http://distilledmagazine.com/moneyball-and-big-data/

I use WAR often, but it is a stat that I think overstates the defensive impact of certain players. (even ignoring how inconsistent defensive stats are at times)

There is no way in my mind that corner outfielders (like Heyward) have the defensive impact on the game that is shown by WAR. For example, Heyward has 12 DRS this year in only 122 plays. (or 130 balls in zone)
Click to expand...

Agree completely with that.
 
nsacpi said:
Heyward is a pretty exceptional outfielder. I've noticed a few times when someone else is in right that balls were going for hits that Heyward would catch. I remember especially one hit to the gap that Reed Johnson made a great effort on. Heyward makes that play with ease. Maybe the defensive stats exaggerate his impact, but not by much. And his hustle in backing up plays is remarkable.
Click to expand...

There is no doubt about it, Heyward is an exceptional defender. I can't stress that enough. There have been 130 balls hit into his zone in 90 games this year, thus 1.5 balls in his zone per game. Stat says he's saving a run every 7.5 games. So essentially it's saying for every 11-12 balls hit in Heywards zone, he's saving a full run. As good of a defender as Heyward is, I don't buy that. This isn't saying he's making a pay out of every 12 that your average defender wouldn't make, this is saying he's saving a full run every 12.

If you want to argue the impact that a SS or CF has on a game, I can get in on that argument.
 
gilesfan said:
There is no doubt about it, Heyward is an exceptional defender. I can't stress that enough. There have been 130 balls hit into his zone in 90 games this year, thus 1.5 balls in his zone per game. Stat says he's saving a run every 7.5 games. So essentially it's saying for every 11-12 balls hit in Heywards zone, he's saving a full run. As good of a defender as Heyward is, I don't buy that. This isn't saying he's making a pay out of every 12 that your average defender wouldn't make, this is saying he's saving a full run every 12.

If you want to argue the impact that a SS or CF has on a game, I can get in on that argument.
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If Heyward saved a double and a single that's most of the way to a run. UZR is based off Linear weights so if every 12 plays heyward makes, a normal RF only makes 9 then yes he's saving a run. I understand why defensive metrics make some leary because you have to put trust in others judgment. But Heyward is clearly far and away better than any RF in baseball.
 
There is no way 1 out of every 4 plays for Heyward is a play the average right fielder would not make.
 
gilesfan said:
There is no way 1 out of every 4 plays for Heyward is a play the average right fielder would not make.
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I wouldn't rule it out. There's of course more moving parts than how simply I stated it. But the point is that these numbers are all based on essentially how I described, and yes Heyward is that good.
 
Seems to me that when Heyward gets to a ball another RFer wouldn't have gotten, it saves an extra base hit more often than not. Those hits typically result in, or lead to, at least 1 run, and often times multiple runs. So I don't think it is absurd to claim that every extra play Heyward (or any other good OFer) makes vs another guy in RF saves somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 run. What that value exactly is I have no idea, but I trust the guys who came up with that formula know a lot more than some poster on an internet forum who "thinks" he knows something.

If Simmons gets to a grounder another SS couldn't get, it leads to a much less troublesome single.
 
gilesfan said:
One of my favorite articles on the issue of WAR. http://distilledmagazine.com/moneyball-and-big-data/

I use WAR often, but it is a stat that I think overstates the defensive impact of certain players. (even ignoring how inconsistent defensive stats are at times)

There is no way in my mind that corner outfielders (like Heyward) have the defensive impact on the game that is shown by WAR. For example, Heyward has 12 DRS this year in only 122 plays. (or 130 balls in zone)
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting that. About the only thing I would add is that each player has to be graded as a whole and I think one thing the stats movement has done has reduced each player to "parts." I think the author's response to a comment about putting Miguel Cabrera at SS is right on the mark. You just wouldn't do that and, as a result, the guy playing SS isn't going to hit as well as Miguel Cabrera. What is gained and what is lost in that decision?? I think what has gotten lost in a lot of the statistical analysis of the past two decades is that baseball is the oddest of team games in that it is static when compared to football, basketball, and hockey and because of that teams are constructed differently. You have to perform mental gymnastics and do risk/reward at every position in a far more comprehensive way than what is done in other sports.
 
Enscheff said:
Seems to me that when Heyward gets to a ball another RFer wouldn't have gotten, it saves an extra base hit more often than not. Those hits typically result in, or lead to, at least 1 run, and often times multiple runs. So I don't think it is absurd to claim that every extra play Heyward (or any other good OFer) makes vs another guy in RF saves somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 run. What that value exactly is I have no idea, but I trust the guys who came up with that formula know a lot more than some poster on an internet forum who "thinks" he knows something.

If Simmons gets to a grounder another SS couldn't get, it leads to a much less troublesome single.
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Simmons sees a lot more plays than Heyward does by the nature of their positions. How many non routine flyballs or balls in the gaps where he saves a base over the average rightfielder does Heyward see?
 
This helps to show the limitations of WAR. We are in a much better spot despite being significantly behind on WAR.

I agree w/ Giles on this. Maybe they should tweak WAR more and de value D on corner spots. Just like you can't add WAR up to get your team's record I don't think you can take runs saved literally. I think it is a comparative measure and a shaky one at that. Our OF is pretty good on D, except for the occasional Upton brain dead plays. I think Prado's D was way overrated and inflated his WAR last year. He was really good, but I don't think it had the game impact to push him to 6 WAR. I think the industry valued him at a 2-3 win player speaks volumes.
 
Russ2dollas said:
This helps to show the limitations of WAR. We are in a much better spot despite being significantly behind on WAR.
Click to expand...

I think that has as much to do with the Atlanta pitching in 2013 as it does with WAR — and since this thread explicitly concerns position-players, the hurlers haven't been discussed.
 
Russ2dollas said:
This helps to show the limitations of WAR. We are in a much better spot despite being significantly behind on WAR.

I agree w/ Giles on this. Maybe they should tweak WAR more and de value D on corner spots. Just like you can't add WAR up to get your team's record I don't think you can take runs saved literally. I think it is a comparative measure and a shaky one at that. Our OF is pretty good on D, except for the occasional Upton brain dead plays. I think Prado's D was way overrated and inflated his WAR last year. He was really good, but I don't think it had the game impact to push him to 6 WAR. I think the industry valued him at a 2-3 win player speaks volumes.
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Yes, excellent point about Prado as well.

Here is another good article discussing some of the limitations. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/6/16/3085251/be-wary-of-war-a-cautionary-tale

And lets be honest, Heyward has been hot the past couple weeks, but this is ridiculous:

Heyward 384 PA 2.9 WAR
Holliday 433 PA 2.6 WAR
Brown 438 PA 2.4 WAR
Fowler 430 PA 2.3 WAR
Harper 336 PA 2.0 WAR
 
gilesfan said:
Heyward 384 PA 2.9 WAR
Holliday 433 PA 2.6 WAR
Brown 438 PA 2.4 WAR
Fowler 430 PA 2.3 WAR
Harper 336 PA 2.0 WAR
Click to expand...

The only thing this list demonstrates is that WAR correlates inversely with love-of-baseball.
 
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